Three men and the future of the European Union

The European Union on the road to collapse

Victor Ângelo

 

Hungary's Viktor Orbán, Poland's Jarosław Kaczyński and Turkey's Recep Erdoğan were once again recalled this week as three of the major threats to the continuity of the EU. The report now published by the European Commission about the rule of law in member countries highlights the first two. The crisis in Libya brings the third back into the picture. All of them are part of the daily concerns of those who want to build a cohesive Europe based on the values of democracy, tolerance, and cooperation.

The report confirms what was already known about the Hungarian Prime Minister. Orbán manipulates public opinion in his country, abuses power to reduce his opponents' scope for action as much as possible, and attacks the freedom of the press, the activities of civil society and academic autonomy. The suspicions of corruption in the awarding of public contracts to companies linked to his and the ruling party are based on very strong evidence. To further spice up an undemocratic and very opaque mess, accusations have now been made public of the secret services' use of the Pegasus computer application to spy on journalists and others who oppose their misrule. It's all that and not just the new law on homosexuality. But the man is cunning. He is reducing the conflict with Brussels to a dimension that is not even at stake - the protection of children and adolescents. And then he announces that there will be a national referendum on that issue, certainly skewed in his own way.

The fight against corruption and for justice to work well, especially its independence, are two fundamental aspects of the European project. It was the issue of justice that caused Poland to appear in large letters in the above-mentioned report. The party now in government, improperly called Law and Justice (PiS), led by the ultra-conservative Kaczyński, has done everything it can to subjugate the judiciary to political power and to ignore Brussels whenever it smells criticism. Thus, the chief justice, appointed by the hand of the PiS, does not want to recognise the primacy and authority of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The European Commission has given him until mid-August to apply two decisions of the European court, which reveals the existence of an open conflict between Brussels and Warsaw.

The policies pursued by the governments of these two countries affect the integrity of the Union and open the door for others to adopt similar behaviour. The fact that the presidency in this second semester is held by the Slovenian prime minister - a confused politician who sometimes looks at Orbán with some admiration - does not help matters.

Outside the EU's borders, Erdoğan remains a nightmare. To the conflicts related to Greece and Cyprus, add the growing Turkish presence in Libya. This country has enormous strategic importance as a departure point for illegal immigrants heading for Europe. Erdoğan already commands the gateways in the Eastern Mediterranean. His influence in Libya will allow him to control the flows on the central route. As a reaction, the EU is preparing the deployment of a military mission to Libya. The main motivation is to compete with Turkey on the ground. This is a mistake. Libya is an extremely complicated chess, where several countries are playing, including Russia. There is no clear political process, apart from a vague promise of elections at the end of the year. A military mission like the one being planned has a high probability of failure and endless bogging down in the dry quicksand of a fragmented country. The EU cannot lightly approve such an intervention. Meanwhile, Turkish freighters continue to pass in front of the beards of the European naval and air operation IRINI, which is supposed to serve to control the arms embargo on Libyan belligerents.

Orbán and the others are a real danger. But the title of this chronicle is obviously provocative. Collapse is not on the horizon. However, it serves to underline that in these matters of values and external relations, the EU must take unequivocal positions of principle. It is a matter of getting respect. Respect is an essential condition to build a successful future.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

Reflecting about democracy

 Democracy cannot be make-believe

Victor Ângelo

 

In the most developed societies, we are witnessing an acceleration in the digitalisation of all dimensions of citizens' lives. The pandemic has contributed enormously to this digital revolution. But more is coming.  The ability to process millions of pieces of information through new methods of artificial intelligence and advances in automation will allow the control - and, in many cases, manipulation - of people in a way never seen before.

The new digital age brings numerous challenges, and even threats, for democracy. Think, for example, of the role of robots in the multiplication of propaganda, fake news, and the creation of echo chambers, which give the impression of massive political support for some, and build around them all sorts of illusions, alongside the harassment of others, the opponents, with thousands of hostile messages from fake profiles. But the most immediate aspect concerns participation in the electoral act. If a citizen can pay his taxes or renew his identity card while sitting at the kitchen table, why is he not allowed to vote by computer link-up, also from home? Going to a polling station, going through crowds of people, queuing up and wasting time seem like procedures from another time, even if people like Donald Trump try to discredit electronic voting.

Already this week, the French have thrown another challenge into the debate. The abstention rate in the regional elections reached a record high. Two-thirds did not vote. Worse still, around 9 out of 10 of 18–24-year-olds were not ready for the hassle. They just ignored the election calls. Analysts were baffled. In discoursing on the reasons for such indifference, they fell into the same simplism that Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other political personalities had already shown on election night - it would be the fault of the citizens, who found the inconvenience not worth it. And they launched cries to the heavens to lament that such a trend could lead to the death of democracy.

All that is television talk. People - especially young people - do not vote because most of the political class doesn't mean anything to them, doesn't inspire them, has no new ideas, is just more of the same, with too much hubris and too few ethics. This is what is happening in France and other European countries. The main threat to democracy does not come from apathy among citizens. That is the consequence. The cause lies upstream, in the political parties - there are always exceptions - which are generally nothing more than a club of opportunists or fanatics, enlightened by short-sightedness.

The question of democracy is also on the agenda of the European Council meeting that has been held since yesterday, marking the end of the Portuguese presidency. The big question, which has been a long time coming and so far, unanswered, is what to do about the authoritarian governance currently practised in Hungary and Poland. The leaders in these two countries have long systematically violated Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, which defines the fundamental values on which the EU is based - freedom, democracy, separation of powers and human rights. The lack of an adequate response to these violations is another fuel to the fire that is consuming away the citizens' confidence in democracy and politicians.

Less talked about, but equally important for the vitality of democracy, is having a capable system of administration of justice that is independent of politicians. Citizens need to have confidence in the speedy and efficient functioning of the courts, as a means of defending their rights and correcting injustices. In the age of "digital totalitarianism" this is even more essential. In member states where justice is slow, ill-equipped, and inefficient, we have a problem almost as serious as the authoritarianism that exists elsewhere. Those states have a lame democracy. They should also be the subject of criticism in the European Council. Without effective justice, democracy is an illusion. And the citizens, as the French have now shown, are no longer so easily deceived.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

The future of politics must be based on values

They do not fit into our future

Victor Angelo

 

I recognise the concerns that many thinkers express about what the world will be like in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. A large proportion say that this crisis pulverizes our societies and disrupts democracy and the alliances that bind us to other peoples, promotes a tendency towards isolation, nationalistic selfishness and the loss of the points of reference that gave meaning to international relations. Thus, the world would emerge fragmented from the crisis, with each country more self-centred, more autocratic, and with the institutions of the multilateral system rather weakened.

I propose a different reading of the route we are now taking. I believe that the crisis gives us the opportunity to strengthen the humanist dimension that has been lacking, both in domestic politics and on the international stage. We will certainly be poorer economically, but we can become much richer politically. It is a question of good leadership and strong citizenship movements. The pandemic has reminded us that people are the essential end of politics. Not people in a general and abstract sense, but each of us, simultaneously in our individuality and as members of the social space to which we belong. Politics must place a stronger emphasis on protecting and respecting our fundamental rights, starting with the right to dignity, health, security and diversity, as well as creating the conditions for everyone to develop their potential as best they know how. 

I believe that the pandemic drama has prepared a good part of the citizens for a new kind of awareness as regards their relationship with others and nature. I think it has made us more measured in our ambitions. We are faced with the possibility of renewing political practice. That is the main conclusion I draw from the present situation. It is also the line that guides my vision of the future. Politics tomorrow must mean a continuous struggle for human rights, for democratisation, for smoothness in public management and for more solidarity. We must build on the maturity we have acquired during this period of shock. If this happens, the credibility of politics will be enhanced, multilateral cooperation will be cemented and we will be in a better position to tackle what I consider to be the three biggest global challenges of the decade: the fight against poverty, the defence of freedom and the regeneration of the environment, starting with the mitigation of climate change.

Indeed, none of this should be new to us Europeans. Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union clearly defines - and happily worded, which is not always the case when it comes to legal commitments between states - the values that constitute the fundamental foundations of our common project, including the centrality of the human dimension of politics. But politicians, who are generally very skilful in the games of opportunism and in the ambiguity of consensus designed to please Greeks and Trojans, do not always support themselves as they should in that article of the Treaty.

In these circumstances, it is essential that the European Commission's budget for the period 2021-2027 and the exceptional plan for economic recovery, which must respond to the challenges created by the pandemic, recognise the essential need for each Member State to respect the letter and spirit of the aforementioned Article 2. Budgets and democracy are the two sides of the same Europe. Here there can be no tricks or juggling of words and misunderstandings. The Hungarian vetoes of Viktor Orbán and the Polish vetoes of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, now also supported by Janez Janša, the Prime Minister of Slovenia, are unacceptable. Let us speak clearly. Orbán is a despot at the head of a clique that many accuse of kleptocracy. Kaczynski is a backward man who exploits feelings from other times. Janša is a small brain man: he was the only European leader to congratulate Donald Trump on his electoral "victory". They all manipulate public opinion in their countries and will not change as long as they retain control of power. We cannot let these gentlemen think that the EU is just a source of money, unrelated to a policy of democratic values and rights. Any compromise on this issue would mean that we would not have learned anything from the cultural revolution that the pandemic crisis is offering us. 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

A dictator called Viktor Orban

The emergency powers approved yesterday by the Hungarian Parliament are outside the democratic framework that guides the European politics and governance. They allow the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, to rule by decree as he pleases and for as long as he wants to. He will have the authority to imprison any opponent for years, including journalists, bloggers, human rights activists and whoever he sees as a threat to his leadership. This move must be clearly denounced by the European leaders. It cannot just be mentioned in vague terms, as Ursula von der Leyen did today. It must be spelled out with all letters and with the Prime Minister’s name attached to it. The EU has no place for people like Mr. Orban.

9 November is a European date

Besides the German leaders, the Presidents of Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary participated in the ceremony in Berlin, marking the 30^th anniversary of the fall of the Wall. I am very pleased they did. The date is an important one for freedom and democracy in their part of Europe. But it is also a key one for the rest of us, in the EU. It is about freedom, the end of a totalitarian approach to governance, the realisation that the communist utopia, as promoted by the Soviets and their allies, was nothing else but a tragic instrument to keep power in the hands of minority political extremists. It is above all a key date for Europe and its modern history. As such, it is most surprising not to see at today’s ceremony some politicians such as Emmanuel Macron, Charles Michel, the incoming EU Council President, and many others from the Western side of Europe. I think they made a mistake.

Kicking Orbán out

The European People’s Party (EPP, centre-right grouping of EU political parties) would make a serious mistake if its leaders decide against the expulsion from the group of Viktor Orbán’s party, Fidesz.

Recently, Fidesz and above all, its leader, the Prime Minister of Hungary, have launched a vicious campaign against Jean-Claude Juncker, who is a prominent member of the EPP family. That’s not only incomprehensible but is also totally unacceptable, as the campaign is tainted by lies and inspired by anti-Semitic sentiments. Basically, Orbán tries to draw dividends from his fabrications against George Soros. He wants to extend the negative image he has managed to build of Soros to the President of the European Commission. Orbán’s tactics consist in inventing an enemy and then concentrate the voters’ attention on destroying such person.

It is politics without any type of scruples. The man is very dangerous.

That comes in addition to Orbán’s domestic crusades against the freedom of the press, the autonomy of the academic institutions and his repeated attacks against the independence of the NGOs.

He does not belong to the centre-right politics. He is an extremist. Therefore, he should join the extreme right circles. The sooner that message is sent to him, and all, the better.

Mark Rutte on the EU

"And I’ve said many times before that I believe the EU is stronger when a deal is a deal.  In the EU there can be no haggling over democracy and the rule of law. We must always draw the line when fundamental values come under pressure, as they have in countries like Poland and Hungary.But a deal is also a deal when it comes to the euro and the Stability and Growth Pact. Because here too, bending the rules can erode the entire system, and we cannot have that. To me the whole idea of the EU is a group of independent member states working together to bring each other to a higher level of prosperity, security and stability. Unity is the source of our capacity to act in the outside world."

Churchill Lecture by The Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Europa Institut at the University of Zurich

Speech | 13-02-2019

Austria, Hungary and the European Union

Today, I should put on record two events. They are both indicative of the state of mind that prevails in some political quarters in Europe.

The first took place in Vienna. The Austrian government invited nine foreign ministers from the Balkan states to a meeting to discuss the mass arrival of immigrants. Basically, the point was to agree on measures that would contain and reduce the transit of new waves of people through the now commonly called Balkan Corridor. The Austrians did not invite the Greeks and the Germans to the meeting. Greece plays however a critical role in the crisis. And Germany is by far the largest player in the region, including on migration issues. This disregard towards Greece and Germany should be seriously criticised. As we must also censure the fact that the European Commission was not properly involved.

Austria has sent a very simple message: we do not believe in a common European response.

The second event took place not far from Vienna. Next door, in Budapest. The Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, made an official statement, with all the pomp and ceremony, about the immigration and refugee issues. The key message was that a national referendum will be organised in Hungary on the acceptance of refugees. More specifically, to consult the Hungarians about the decision of the European Commission to share the burden through a system of quotas. The referendum will not take place until late in the year, most likely by October. It´s a smart move against the EU and a common approach. During the next few months, Orban will have an argument to remain outside any EU debate on the matter: he is waiting for the results of the popular consultation in his country. And nobody can say he is not right. It will sound as anti-democratic.

But we can say, in the meantime, that the State room where he made today´s statement was very well decorated. In the background there was a beautiful line of Hungary´s national flags. Plenty of them. And there was no EU flag around. It would have certainly spoiled the view.

Hungary and the immigration into the EU

Every passing week shows that the immigration issues are just getting worse in the EU. Hungary, for instance, has been on the news because of the decision to build a wall at the border with Serbia. The barrier should prevent, as much as it is possible, new immigrants from crossing into Hungary and from there moving into Austria, Germany or elsewhere into the richer corners of the EU.

Its construction has started.

We can criticise the decision, of course.

But above all it is an indication that there is no joint policy on immigration within Europe. And it also hides the facts. In 2013, Hungary received about 2 000 requests for asylum. Last year, the figure jumped to 43 000. And this year, it has already gone beyond 83 000. These figures alone give us a better understanding of the size of the problem. They should also be seen as part of the broader picture, meaning, we have in 2015 a true problem in our hands. And no common will to address it.

Europe´s face cannot look tired

I have supported since the early days Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. I know he has the experience and the courage required for such a tough job. But these days he looks tired and too thin-skinned, irritable. He should pay attention to that. Leaders, particularly at challenging times, should look as being in control, calm and refreshed.

The rentrée, after the summer break, will be particularly demanding for Europe. Greece will continue at the top of the list, side by side with the immigration issues, plus matters related to internal security and instability in North Africa and Middle East. To that already heavy list, one should add the policy matters raised by the very special political options of Viktor Orban in Hungary and Cameron´s exigencies in terms of reform, and also the need to re-open the dialogue with Russia.

This is a full agenda. It calls for leadership that projects strength, confidence and optimism. And those features have to be seen on the TV screens, when people like Juncker are talking to the media or to the EU Parliament.  They are the public faces of the Union. 

European dreams

The leaders of the Visegrad Group – Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – met yesterday in Warsaw with President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel to discuss defence matters. The four countries want to have a joint battle group of 3,000 soldiers in about three years’ time. This is a good move, particularly if one takes into account that the military cooperation between Slovakia and Hungary requires a confidence boost. It has indeed known better days.

The leaders also talked about today’s Europe. And, to the surprise of some of us, they came to the conclusion that the three instruments that will “construct” the EU are: 1) the economic and monetary union; 2) the competitiveness of the European economies; and 3) the reinforcement of Europe’s defence capabilities.

Well…First, the economic and monetary union seems to be a project for only part of the current members. I do not see the British, the Danes or the Swedes to be willing, one day, to join the Euro. The competitiveness issue is a dream that is killed every day, when one compares the economies of Northern Europe with Spain, Italy or Portugal – forget about Greece! And the European defence capabilities have a very troubled future in front of them. To insist in European common defence when military budgets are on the decline slope is misleading. The European defence will continue to be based on NATO’s role and on the commitment of the US towards Europe. The little resources still available within the European countries’ defence institutions should be used to strengthen the European contribution to NATO’s mandate.