Plenty of hope

During the on-going crisis, a major one, lots of people have shown the better side of themselves. It has happened in various walks of life, from the health professionals and personnel to the common citizen, that has accepted the confinement with patience and discipline. That is very encouraging. They are certainly ready for a more reasonable approach to the future.

COP25 and the people

COP25 has ended. Madrid can return to a more normal life. And the delegates can go home. For many of them, this climate summit would have been a major disappointment. For a few others, the meeting was as vague as they wanted it to be. That is the game of big international politics, to promise the world, and then backtrack, and implement as little as possible. 

Actually, there is a major contradiction between climate action and power politics. Climate requires a long-term view and commitment. Government politics is about the short-term, the eyes on the next election. These two perspectives cannot meet. Political leaders cannot lead the way as far as this issue is concerned, unless they feel the pressure coming from the citizens' movements. The strength of these movements is the only hope we have. In some countries, they matter and then the leaders listen. But in many other nations, the power is too concentrated in the official channels and mechanisms that it leaves little space for the citizens to be able to organise themselves.

The climate emergency needs not only the mobilisation of the citizens but also very clear proposals that can be easily accepted and owned by the people. In many ways, it seems necessary to change the narrative. The citizen knows what is taking place, the effects of climate change. The storms, the heat waves, the wildfires, the disappearing ice cover, all that. What they want to know is what are the concrete measures that must be effectively taken and be assured that those actions will not compromise their job security and the key aspects of their standards of living. They also want to know where the money for implementation will be coming from. 

That’s the story that must be told now. It is not enough to apprise people that the new technologies will generate more jobs. They do not believe it, unless we find the words and the examples that are most convincing.

The climate emergency will not be won if we do not get the people mobilised. That is the real front of this combat at this stage.  

Hong Kong and Xi's response

Today, the Hong Kong crisis led to the cancellation of all flights to and from its international airport. That is a major development. It shows clearly that Hong Kong is now a critical challenge for President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Knowing the all-out importance the Chinese leadership give to law and order, as well as to obeisance to the rulings of the Communist Party, one can only expect a crushing reaction to the mass demonstrations and, in particular, to the young leaders that have been at the core of the movement. Xi and his circle cannot be perceived by the citizens of other Chinese cities as being confused, unable to respond and condoning mass protests. Their power is based as much on keeping the grip on people as it is on economic well-being.

In view of this political culture of power, the response they are preparing must be extraordinarily worrisome.

Assessing the Gilets Jaunes

At my conference, this afternoon, I was asked about the Gilets Jaunes, the French demonstrators that took to the streets every Saturday for a long while, starting in November last year. I replied the protest is dead. And I explained that the Gilets Jaunes missed some important criteria that make the citizens’ movements successful. Therefore, they could only fail, it was just a question of time.

One, their objectives were too broad. In addition, besides being too many and shooting in too many directions, the demands kept changing with time. That is a serious mistake.

Two, they were not able to connect with other movements, not even with the trade unions, not to mention the political parties. No connection beyond the group means no alliance and therefore, no success.

Three, they were not aware that to win you should not demonize those who are not participating. You must show you are open to them. If you call them names, they will turn against you.

Four, to be successful, a citizens’ movement must remain non-violent. That is what history teaches us. Acts of violence associated with the movement play against it. The government knew that and was able to play that card well. Just think of the many TV images that were broadcast to show how much violence was associated with the Gilets Jaunes’ rallies.

Five, civic action calls for visible leaders to be the recognisable face of it. That was not the case. Every time a new potential leader emerged, he or she was immediately attacked by many within the Gilets Jaunes crowd.

Six, the government must propose an alternative to the demonstrations. The Macron government invented a “national dialogue”. It took the steam out of many participants and sympathisers in the Gilets Jaunes.

That is my reading, that is what I shared today.

 

About power

I told those listening to my lecture that in today’s world we cannot give a simple answer to complex social and political issues. And I mentioned the power issue, as the most striking example. It is no longer possible to associate power with just the control of the State or the banking system, as some were inclined to do. The sources of power are varied. For instance, Greta Thunberg, the young climate activist, takes her power from her persistence and peaceful style, the clarity of her cause, and the support she gradually got from other young pupils and students across Europe and beyond. She is at present, in many ways, a powerful figure, an agenda setter that all the big people want to meet and take a picture with. It is however more than that. Her message is positively influencing the global agenda and making a difference.

Political power, in a democratic and advanced society, is the result of a struggle between different views, interests and dreams. It is a balanced outcome