Lukashenko must go

The people of Belarus had never occupied the centre of our European attention. For us, in the European Union, they were just a small nation at the outer periphery of our political space. We knew nothing about them. Now, they are at the centre of our admiration. They have shown, since the fraudulent early August elections, to be a very valiant people. They have been on the streets almost every day, to tell the dictator that enough is enough and that he should go. Men and women, lots of folks, some older people as well, everyone is ready to face the police repression because they want to be heard. This is no revolution pushed from outside the country. This is a genuine popular movement. I think that sooner the dictator will have to yield. The popular dislike is too obvious for him and his small group of supporters to be able to ignore it. And he cannot count of Vladimir Putin’s help. If this one comes to help – I hope he will not – he will get rid of him in any case. Putin knows that Lukashenko is politically finished.

Young people have travelled to Davos 2020

Everybody knows that Professor Klaus Schwab, the creator and the soul of the annual Davos conference, is a very sensible and intelligent person. This year he has given a lot of space to the very young. They participate as speakers in various forums at the Davos World Economic Forum 2020. And they are all over, in the rooms and corridors where key global issues are being discussed. The teenagers and the young people he invited are also very diverse in terms of ethnicity and place of origin. But they have a few common traits. They are seriously committed to their cause, they do not act for the limelight, meaning that they are genuinely interested in creating a mass movement and just be part of it, and they are very good at communicating their messages. In the end, beyond all the problems they raise, they carry a banner of hope. They value values, and that’s the way forward. That is a big change in international affairs. And the Davos meeting shows that political leaders are getting to realise that they better listen to these young activists.

COP25 and the people

COP25 has ended. Madrid can return to a more normal life. And the delegates can go home. For many of them, this climate summit would have been a major disappointment. For a few others, the meeting was as vague as they wanted it to be. That is the game of big international politics, to promise the world, and then backtrack, and implement as little as possible. 

Actually, there is a major contradiction between climate action and power politics. Climate requires a long-term view and commitment. Government politics is about the short-term, the eyes on the next election. These two perspectives cannot meet. Political leaders cannot lead the way as far as this issue is concerned, unless they feel the pressure coming from the citizens' movements. The strength of these movements is the only hope we have. In some countries, they matter and then the leaders listen. But in many other nations, the power is too concentrated in the official channels and mechanisms that it leaves little space for the citizens to be able to organise themselves.

The climate emergency needs not only the mobilisation of the citizens but also very clear proposals that can be easily accepted and owned by the people. In many ways, it seems necessary to change the narrative. The citizen knows what is taking place, the effects of climate change. The storms, the heat waves, the wildfires, the disappearing ice cover, all that. What they want to know is what are the concrete measures that must be effectively taken and be assured that those actions will not compromise their job security and the key aspects of their standards of living. They also want to know where the money for implementation will be coming from. 

That’s the story that must be told now. It is not enough to apprise people that the new technologies will generate more jobs. They do not believe it, unless we find the words and the examples that are most convincing.

The climate emergency will not be won if we do not get the people mobilised. That is the real front of this combat at this stage.  

Boris and the crime agenda

As he stepped into his new job of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to recruit 20,000 additional police officers. That number matches the reduction of the police force in England and Wales since March 2010. Many do not find the police service attractive enough anymore, if one considers pay, working hours, duress and the level of risk. And England and Wales have seen the crime rates explode during the last years. London and many other cities are no longer safe places. This remains a major failure of the recent government.

If the new Prime Minister manages to change the security situation, he would have collected a major political prize. If I were in his shoes, I would spend a good deal of my time trying to address the issue. There, as in any other country, the citizen’s safety should be a priority. The citizens want to see the government committed to such task.

This could be a central theme of the future electoral campaign that very soon Boris Johnson will be compelled to call. He wants to leave the EU by 31 October, to take the steam out of the Farage Brexit Party. And then, as soon as he is out, call for fresh elections. But he might have to dissolve the Parliament before 31 October, if the opposition to a No Deal is larger than his own supporters. In any case, elections are in the horizon. Besides Brexit, it seems that security might be the big theme. The only problem is that a No Deal Brexit – and we are now very close to that option – will disrupt so many aspects of the British life that he might be consumed during the electoral campaign by those issues and unable to deal with the security crisis that is going on.

Boris Johnson has interesting times ahead of him. I am not entirely sure he will be able to cope.

Strategic communications are essential and part of the solution

The EU public opinion matters a lot. People have access to lots of information but the average citizen is still very much influenced by what they watch on TV.

My sense is that the leaders are not communicating well on Greece´s crisis. This is a very sensitive matter that can be easily exploited by any camp that promotes populism, and radicalism, and opposes the EU. It can also weaken further the fragile feeling of common interests.

Every leader has his or her part of responsibility. National leaders should address their national audiences and explain what is at stake and the choices that are being made. Juncker and Tusk, in Brussels, they have likewise to step forward and talk about the issue in a way that goes beyond the sound bites and a patronizing approach. It´s very much their call.  

EU´s dream

The EU project needs revitalization. How can we achieve it at a time when the political leaders ‘credibility is so low?

The renewal cannot be based on fear. It has to be about hope and trust on a better common future.

 If I had money and power I would launch a major pan-European initiative to bring Europe back to the centre of the political debate. The point would be to give our common project new wings and release the citizens’ dreams of more harmonious Union. 

And this would be the time to do it, before the May elections for the European Parliament.