Assessing the Gilets Jaunes

At my conference, this afternoon, I was asked about the Gilets Jaunes, the French demonstrators that took to the streets every Saturday for a long while, starting in November last year. I replied the protest is dead. And I explained that the Gilets Jaunes missed some important criteria that make the citizens’ movements successful. Therefore, they could only fail, it was just a question of time.

One, their objectives were too broad. In addition, besides being too many and shooting in too many directions, the demands kept changing with time. That is a serious mistake.

Two, they were not able to connect with other movements, not even with the trade unions, not to mention the political parties. No connection beyond the group means no alliance and therefore, no success.

Three, they were not aware that to win you should not demonize those who are not participating. You must show you are open to them. If you call them names, they will turn against you.

Four, to be successful, a citizens’ movement must remain non-violent. That is what history teaches us. Acts of violence associated with the movement play against it. The government knew that and was able to play that card well. Just think of the many TV images that were broadcast to show how much violence was associated with the Gilets Jaunes’ rallies.

Five, civic action calls for visible leaders to be the recognisable face of it. That was not the case. Every time a new potential leader emerged, he or she was immediately attacked by many within the Gilets Jaunes crowd.

Six, the government must propose an alternative to the demonstrations. The Macron government invented a “national dialogue”. It took the steam out of many participants and sympathisers in the Gilets Jaunes.

That is my reading, that is what I shared today.

 

More about the Gilets Jaunes

Another Saturday, another day of rallies for the Gilets Jaunes in France. This is going on since November 2018, almost six months ago. It has been an incredibly long protest movement.

It is true that today’s mobilisation was much weaker than the previous ones. But people were still on the streets, in Paris, Bordeaux and elsewhere. And the forecast is that the rallies will continue. At least until the end of May, when the European elections will be held.

It is not easy to draw all the lessons from the Gilets Jaunes. President Macron has tried to respond to some of the grievances. However, for some, the President’s announcements were not good enough. He himself is seen by those who continue to walk the streets as the target that must be shot down.

That position will not change.

But it is important for the President to be responsive to some of complaints, but also be firm and determined to modernise the French society. It is equally vital he sends the message that public chaos and law-breaking will be seriously punished. Peaceful demonstrations, yes. Looting and destruction, no.

Furthermore, it will be a mistake to approach the Gilets Jaunes from an elitist perspective. Or from a higher-class platform. They are citizens like everyone else. And they should be treated with respect, as long as they remain within the bounds of the law and the rules of civility. I have seen some intellectuals trying to belittle the Gilets Jaunes. In my opinion, such position is not helpful.

As it is not correct to romanticise or glamorise them, as some artists and people from the creative arts have tried to do today, in the Libération newspaper. Their statement is a hotchpotch of idealism, naivety and populism. It does not take the debate any further. It adds nothing to a better understanding of the social issues and frustrations some people are confronted with.

The Gilets Jaunes simply represent a social group that needs attention, firmness but also the building of some bridges.  

A weaker Emmanuel Macron

President Macron is losing direction when it comes to France’s domestic politics. I real think that’s a major issue, both for the French and for all of us, in the EU.

His press conference of this week was supposed to respond to many months of street protests led by the Gilets Jaunes and to draw lessons from the national debate the President had promoted throughout the country on several key topics. Under the national debate, hundreds of public meetings and town halls had been organised. Emmanuel Macron himself chaired some of the gatherings.

The press event has shown that the President has left behind some important political commitments he had made during the electoral fight. One of the most important has to do with the reform of the French state administration. The country needs to adjust the administrative machinery to the new needs of the citizens and, at the same time, rationalise the costs. The last time France had a balanced public budget was 45 years ago, in 1974. Since then, the official administration is living well beyond the means the economy would allow. The country is deeply in debt. Public debt is today around 2,200 billion Euros. This is unacceptable and it will have a serious impact on future generations. Instead of cutting unnecessary expenditures, President Macron announced new measures that will increase public spending and, sooner or later, will have to be translated into new taxes.

He has also been unable to deal with the sustainability of the national pension system. The French, like all of us, are living longer. But, for demagogic reasons, the pension age remains at 62. He should have increased that ceiling. In a related matter, there is a need to review the working week, which is currently capped at 35 hours. This has not been addressed.

President Macron comes out of all this much weaker. He has not been able to appease the Gilets Jaunes. And he is now seen by many in France as just another Hollande, a younger version of the last President. But more arrogant, which is something that is also bringing him down. His communication style is not the best in terms of connecting with people and the media. 

I really hope he will be able to recover from the current predicament. He has three more years to go.

Additional notes on the Yellow Vests

In yesterday’s writing, my main point was we cannot ignore the social dissatisfaction some French citizens experience. I had particularly in mind those who live in the sprawling, huge and hastily urbanised areas that ring the most prosperous cities of France. These citizens are wrongly called “suburban people” – an expression that hardly hides the disdain the professional, city-based elites feel towards those persons. The fact is that most of them live in big agglomerations, but those are little more than sleeping areas. The rest of their lives is spent on commuting, long hours wasted in crowded public transportation systems or on congested roads. Everything is far and stressful to reach: work, schools, medical facilities, public services, even the shopping malls. The only people they know are like them, sharing the same frustrations and the same fatigue.

They also know this is a life condition that will continue forever, at best. There is very little hope in the air. The prevailing sentiment is of being trapped. Vulnerable as well. They also believe that they are just ignored by the more fortunate fellow citizens and the political actors. The elites don’t care, that’s the judgement that is often mentioned.

But there two other questions I must raise. 

First, that violence and destruction are not acceptable. There is no justification. Those who practise such acts must be punished. And we all must say no to violence, no to chaos, no any type of public rebellion. 

Second, that these rallies should cease and dialogue be given a chance. President Emmanuel Macron has launched a consultative process that is rather ambitious. It touches some very key issues. And it’s also an attempt to look at democracy and representativeness from a less formal and distant perspective. It’s important to participate in that initiative. It will also show that there is maturity there where it might seem absent for now.

Day 13 for the Yellow Vests

Today it was the 13^th Saturday with Yellow Vest demonstrators in Paris and other French cities.

It’s obvious the movement is still able to gather a good number of people. We can say so even if the total number of protesters today was smaller than in past weeks. The variety of reasons that bring the activists to the streets explains the numbers.

This is not a rally of dunces, as some would like us to see it. There are extremists in the ranks – militants from the far-right and from the far-left. They are trying to ride the social malaise. And they feel happy when they see cars burning or the State authority being challenged. But the majority of those on the streets is composed of people that face daily hardships and want to benefit from a safer economic environment. They are simple people, and they raise the key question about how to organise the society in developed nations at a time of big digital transformations, combined with international economic competition and the emergence of masses of skilled workers in other parts of the world.

No to public disorder

The French National Assembly is debating a new law drafted to address the issue of violence during public demonstrations. It’s known as the “anti-casseurs law”. “Casseur” is the name given to anyone who breaks or wrecks things. The new piece of legislation aims at preventing the destruction of public and private property by hooligans and other ruffians, people that take advantage of legitimate manifestations to create hell.

In France, a number of politicians and intellectuals see this new law as restricting the freedom to demonstrate. But the fact of the matter is that fringe groups are systematically taking advantage of genuine street protesters to behave destructively. That cannot be accepted. Law and order in public places must be kept. If not, we are creating the conditions for extreme-right movements to ride on chaos and gain political space. The democratic values, in France and elsewhere in our part of the world, require a firm hand when dealing with violence and looting. Anarchy, if untamed, leads to dictatorship.

On the Yellow Vests

The French Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) have now demonstrated every Saturday since mid-November. Yesterday it was their 12^th Saturday of mass rallies in Paris and other cities and towns of France. We cannot ignore the meaning and the political dimensions of such a movement. It must be better understood, first. Then, we should reflect about the response that should be provided.

I get the impression that both questions – understanding and responding – have not been fully considered.

Many words have been written about the grievances, but they do not explain the persistence of the street protests. Moreover, in winter, which is not the best season to be on the street and public squares. The analysis of the root causes calls for more objectivity and less ideological explanations.

The response the government has adopted is two-pronged: massive police presence during the manifestations, to prevent violence and looting; and the launching of a campaign of national dialogue, to look at issues of taxation, State organisation and political representativeness, as well as climate policies. But both lines of the response are being challenged. They have not convinced a good deal of those complaining, even among those who do not come to the streets on Saturday. 

The matter needs therefore a much more comprehensive assessment. It’s very much on the table.