It
is now clear that the Chinese leadership would prefer Donald Trump. The
messages we are getting from Beijing are that they believe that Joe Biden would
be tougher on China than Trump. They now know the current President relatively
well and they think that if there is an agreement on trade everything else will
be manageable. They see Donald Trump as a transactional leader. He is aware of
the Chinese geopolitical ambitions and must refer to them in his public
speeches. But he can be satisfied with a trade agreement if he thinks the
agreement is good for his electoral basis. And it is true he has a good personal
rapport with President Xi Jinping. On the other side, the Chinese leadership
see Biden as more ideological. He will be raising issues that are particularly unpleasant
to the ears of the Chinese Communist bosses. Issues such as human rights, the special
status and freedom in Hong Kong, the re-education camps in Xinjiang Province,
the relations with Taiwan, and so on. These are extremely sensitive matters for
Beijing. Trade is a small business when compared with any of these challenges.
Therefore, they will try to do anything they can to make sure that Donald Trump
gets re-elected.
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