Where is China's leadership?
Victor
Angelo
It took 12 days
of aggression against Ukraine for Xi Jinping to come down to earth and discuss
his reading of the crisis with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz. The day before,
his foreign minister, Wang Yi, had organised a long press conference focused on
the same subject.
Analysing these
two speeches, I get the impression that Beijing wants to please Greeks and
Trojans, i.e., the Europeans of the EU and the regime of Vladimir Putin, and to
escalate the rhetoric against the US. Xi sought to encourage dialogue between
the Europeans and the Kremlin, as well as to create a fault line between the
European and American positions. This is how the Chinese initiative can be
summed up.
Above all, Xi's
aim is to project an image of composure and serenity, in defence of the
multilateral system and of peace. He wants to appear as the great apologist for
international principles, while the Americans should be seen as the instigators
of conflicts, including the one now being suffered in Ukraine. China would be
mainly concerned with the promotion of international cooperation - the word
cooperation was mentioned more than 80 times in Wang's speech - development and
the prevention of large-scale humanitarian crises.
All this is an
exercise in style in the realms of propaganda and ambiguity. China needs to
maintain a very close relationship with Russia. They are two big neighbours,
with various complementarities, beyond the immense geographical continuity.
Beijing imports raw materials extracted in Russia – oil represents about 60% of
total imports coming from Russia – and provides an outlet for its neighbour's
economy. Most important of all, it sees the US as a common enemy. Geography
brings the two countries together and geopolitics unites them. It is, however,
a fragile union: it is fundamentally based on the wills of Xi and Putin. It has
no solid popular expression, because each people have their own cultural
framework, without shared roots or references.
And China knows
how to calculate too: in one year, trade with the EU exceeds USD 800 billion,
while with Russia it is much lower, at USD 105 billion. This figure roughly
equals the annual trade between China and the Netherlands. Politically and
economically, Xi Jinping depends on an open and friendly European market. For
the Chinese leader, international trade is essential to maintain the pace of
growth in living standards for his citizens. This has to do with his continuity
in power. It is the key argument to justify his legitimacy and absolute
authority.
The fact is that
the Chinese leadership does not support the military assault that Putin has
ordered against Ukraine. For what I write above, and for three other reasons.
First, because it flouts two of the fundamental principles of Chinese foreign
policy, that of the inviolability of national borders and non-interference in
the internal affairs of other states. Secondly, it destabilises European
economies and puts them at risk of a deep crisis. Third, it reinforces the role
of the USA in NATO and its influence in Europe.
However, Xi
Jinping does not think it prudent to criticise, or even talk to Putin now. He
prefers to go through Macron and Scholz and advise them on a dialogue with the
Kremlin, pretending not to see that this path is currently blocked. Putin does
not listen to the European leaders.
Faced with the Ukrainian
resistance against the invaders, Putin is determined to repeat what other
dictators have done throughout history: expand the use of armed force,
including the bombing of civilians - a war crime - and the siege of cities, in
the old medieval style. Xi Jinping knows the costs of this kind of criminal
folly. It is what prompted him to contact Europe's leaders. He should show that
his words about the value of multilateralism and diplomatic negotiations make
sense and move with clarity in the UN Security Council and with his partner
Putin. Only then can he be taken seriously.
(Automatic
translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de Notícias, the old
and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 11 March 2022)
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