To say thank you to Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon has left the UN Secretariat building today, at the end of his second mandate.

He spent the last ten years at the UN helm. I worked directly under him during a few years and can´t let him go without saying that he has always tried to do his best as Secretary-General.

People have criticised his low profile style, his communication skills, and his indecision in some critical moments, and so on. But they have forgotten he comes from a very different cultural and civilizational background, one that is more inclined to pursue dialogue and harmony instead of our Western way that puts a premium on personal confrontation. And many have also been blind to his tremendous efforts on climate change, on improving the work of the Security Council, on gender, the protection of civilians, and on enhancing the coordination with the regional organisations, such as the African Union, the EU and NATO. He has managed to keep the bridges open with the key members of the UN Security Council and that´s in itself a major achievement.

We should be mindful to the fact that the UN is an extremely complex organisation. It is the meeting point of all the national interests as the member States perceive them. The Secretary-General is caught in that dense web of narrow interests. He has immense authority, it is true, but it is also seen by the States as their top international civil servant. That´s not a very easy position.

I think it is fair to say goodbye to Ban Ki-moon on a positive note.

Guterres as the new UN boss

António Guterres´s swearing-in ceremony took place today. He is now ready to take over from Ban Ki-moon on 1 January 2017. And he has clearly spelled out, in today´s speech, the key priorities he sees for his mandate: first, to augment the UN´s ability to better contribute to the different stages of crisis management; second, to reorganise the system´s development machinery to make it more coherent and have a stronger field presence; third, to reform the UN, with a clear stress on delivery and improved public communication.

He is aware of the many difficulties ahead. For that reason, he underlined the importance he gives to partnering with other institutions and the member states. It is clear the UN should never work on critical issues alone.

Furthermore, all the work should be inspired by the principles that are enshrined in the UN Charter. A values-based approach gives the UN a stronger sense of mission and enhances its credibility.

One of those key values concerns the basic rights of everyone. They should be respected. That´s the foundation of peace and international cooperation.

Some people would call it respecting the dignity of our fellow humans. I think that concept could be understood differently by different people. I prefer to say human rights. They require no interpretation and have no faith-based connotation. It´s just a question of implementing the existing, universally approved principles. They are clearly written in the UN Convention.

UN on Israel´s settlements

Today the UN Secretary-general expressed his concerns regarding the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied territories. And he called for a freeze of the expansion. There is nothing very new here, but it is important it has been said by the top UN official.

The Prime Minister of Israel did not like Ban Ki-moon´s words. I can understand that. What I cannot accept is Benjamin Netanyahu´s official written statement accusing the SG of “encouraging terrorism”.  

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage. 

Syria: calling for a renewed diplomatic effort

John Kerry, the US State Secretary, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister met today in Vienna with their counterparts from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The meeting was about the Syrian conflict and how to get it resolved, after almost five years of civil war and unimaginable suffering.

These four people represent countries that can play an important role in bringing peace back to Syria. Their countries are not the only ones that matter but in many ways they play a major role in the region and can for sure markedly influence the course of events. It is therefore encouraging to see them around the same table. And they should continue the consultations, even if their interests are very distinct, as it is time to see an end to the Syrian tragedy.

I have also noted that the EU was not part of the discussion. It should. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, has to claim a seat around this table. The EU´s potential role both during the peace negotiations and the reconstruction of Syria cannot be ignored.

The UN has also been side-lined. The Special Envoy of the Secretary-General, Staffan de Mistura, has disappeared from the radar. That needs to be changed immediately. The UN´s participation is critical for the credibility of the Secretary-General and to augment the legitimacy of the current efforts. Here, as in the case of the EU, there is a need to be strong and call for recognition.

The impossible job of leading a peacekeeping operation

The UN Secretary-General has just forced his Special Representative in the Central African Republic (CAR) to resign. The reason is directly linked to the rape of a young girl in Bangui by one or more peacekeepers. The Special Representative, who is also the head of the UN peacekeeping operation in the CAR, had to go, in the opinion of Ban Ki-moon, to show that the SG does not take these matters lightly.

Ban Ki-moon could not afford to display any shade of hesitancy.  There have been, in the past, some serious cases of gender-based violence in the country associated to the external troops. The most notorious case was perpetrated by the initial deployment of French soldiers and the UN was perceived as timid in dealing with it.

This sort of violence has been a recurrent problem in peacekeeping. At present there is no tolerance to it. And that´s the correct approach. But that does not prevent it from occurring.

That was again the case in the CAR. However, now that the Special Representative has been so summarily sacked I should add that he had tried his level best to prevent sexual violence from happening again. It´s fair to say it in a clear manner. It’s true that the ultimate responsibility in a mission comes always to the Special Representative´s level. But it also true that he cannot be behind each one of his soldiers. There are thousands of them in a mission like the one in the CAR. Each military contingent comes from a different country and the responsibility has to start with the national commanding officer at the head of each contingent.

The UN cannot remain silent about the Mediterranean tragedies

Pope Francis has been very clear about the immigration issue, particularly the massive loss of life and the incredible human costs of the illegal crossings of the Mediterranean Sea. We might disagree with the implicit policy proposals that one can guess behind his words, but we have to recognise that he has occupied the moral ground and been a loud voice in a sea of political silences.

We would like to hear some voices from the UN side as well. Not just the spokespersons of agency A or B, but people in leadership positions. They should come up and speak. Make proposals, suggest policy avenues, and offer their goodwill services. Some of them, like the Secretary-General or the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, are at the end of their mandates. That should give them more space to call a spade a spade and be daring.

Looking for a humanitarian lady

At the UN headquarters there is a bit of a fight about the position of Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, which is officially known as Emergency Relief Coordinator. The British Baroness Amos, who has led the humanitarian department of the UN since late 2010, has decided to leave the position, for reasons better known to herself. She announced her departure in November of last year. Since then, Prime Minister Cameron has tried to impose one of his party friends as the nominee, but the Secretary-General has found the candidate too weak and blatantly unqualified for the job. Cameron was actually advised to suggest other names. But the impasse goes on. And the other British names that have been mentioned in some corridors are not much better than Cameron´s friend.

My guess is that Ban wants to appoint a woman. Maybe Cameron or another Prime Minister elsewhere will come up with the right lady. 

Ukraine and the election of the new UN Secretary-General

Have we thought that a collateral damage resulting from the Ukraine crisis is related to the election of the new UN Secretary-general? Up to now it was safe to believe that the new SG, to be elected in 2016, would be a senior figure from Eastern Europe. Now, with the tense situation that has developed between the West and Russia, it is very likely to see Moscow opposing a strong candidate coming from a former member of the Warsaw Pact. Or from a former USSR territory. That puts an end, I believe, to the ambitions some key figures in the Baltic States had been nurturing.

It also increases the chances of someone coming from a smaller Western State. And it gives a new breath of hope to UNDP´s boss, Helen Clark, a New Zealander that would love to be in charge. 

The UN in South Sudan needs teeth

John Kerry, who was visiting Luanda today, has shown he is deeply concerned with the crisis situation in South Sudan. The civil war is going on. It is even getting more violent, now that talks about talks between the two main opposing parties are being aired. For the Americans, South Sudan is important. The country has a large interest group in the US, particularly amongst the Christian fundamentalists. That´s politically relevant.

The UN mission in South Sudan – UNMISS – has been politically weak. And it has also lacked the strength and the will to have a more robust security role. It is time for the Americans to raise that matter with the UN Secretary-General. And to help the SG to find the right response to the weaknesses. It is not good for the UN´s image and work in the region to been seen as unable to have a stronger and clearer stance on the South Sudanese crisis. 

The buoy on offer

It is always a serious mistake to ignore the feelings of each part to a conflict.

Conflicts do escalate because of feelings, matters of honour, fear of being perceived as weak, of losing the face, and other issues of national pride and history. The understanding of is of national interest gets then blurred. The obvious economic cost of war is disregarded, as it is the human dimension. The flag becomes more important than the individual.

Mediation is about finding a way out from such powerful irrationality.

The UN Secretary-general´s visit to Moscow and then to Kiev is a critical move that should be seized as a much needed buoy in very choppy waters. 

Iran and Syria

Throughout the day there was a lot of controversy about Iran´s participation in the Geneva II talks on Syria, scheduled for Wednesday. The key Western powers looked at Secretary-general Ban´s decision to invite Tehran as a serious blunder. And he got quite a number of calls to change his mind, which he did. The invitation was withdrawn under the pretext that Tehran had not endorsed the transitional framework that came out of Geneva I.

Beyond this tangle, the point the SG was trying to make is very simple and clear. Iran has to be part of the solution. The Syrian crisis has many hands in it. One of them is at the end of the long arm that connects Assad with the Iranian leaders. If the other hands are in the kitchen, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, there is no reason to bar Iran. A negotiation is not just to be held between friends. It should bring together adversaries and enemies. 

South Sudan calls for urgent political engagement

The UN Security Council approved an additional deployment of 6,000 troops to augment the peacekeeping presence of the mission in South Sudan, known by its initials as UNMISS.

This is basically a symbolic gesture with no immediate impact at a time of great urgency. The new soldiers are not available. The Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has tried to re-deploy some of the peacekeepers actually employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as in Liberia and Cote d´Ivoire. He has not been successful so far. It will be difficult to get that re-deployment as the Troop Contributing Countries will not approve such a move. Troops have been sent to country A and to transfer them to country B is always a lengthy process, and it is normally bound to fail.

The grave situation in South Sudan does require a different approach. It calls for political engagement with the leaders of the factions at war. That engagement has to be robust and bring together high level UN and bilateral envoys. It needs to be very impartial to be accepted by all the parties. And it has to happen now, it cannot wait.

That´s what we would expect the Security Council to decide. 

G20 and Syria

Syria continues to occupy the front pages. It will also be the key matter on the table at the G20 meeting this week in St. Petersburg on 5 and 6 September. It is not on the agenda but it will dominate the discussions. President Obama's decision to strike Syria will be the ghost in the room. The fact that he is delaying any action until the following week will give some space for diplomatic consultations. But it will certainly not change the positions of the key players, especially Russia.

In the meantime, one would expect that the UN Secretary-General be prepared by then to share the preliminary conclusions of the inspections with the Security Council members. That would add some substance to the G20 exchanges.

Mali is not moving in the right direction

Mali’s internal situation continues to be very fragile. The key international partners of this country need to coordinate better among themselves and agree on a common strategy in support of the stabilization process and the political transition.  This is a matter of great urgency.

It is also a matter of great concern to see that a country that has played an important role in the history of West Africa and has also been able to produce a large number of fine minds is today politically fragmented. No leader has emerged. Without a clairvoyant leader as a counterpart the external friends of Mali will not be able to succeed. It would be a mistake to forget this evidence.