Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Kenya faces major security challenges

One of my colleagues at the UN, a man from a Nordic country, decided to retire by the Kenyan coast, not far from Mombasa. That decision was taken more than 10 years ago. The place was quiet and the weather much nicer than around the Baltic Sea. 

I thought of him and his wife today. The news coming from that part of Africa have not been good. And they have further deteriorated in the last couple of days. People have been massacred by extremists, others have been kidnapped. And above all, the national government seems too weak to be able to tackle the security challenges.

The dangerous situation shows once more that terrorism can spread fast if not properly contained. The chaos that prevails in Somalia, just to the North of Kenya, is a major menace to entire region. And of all the neighbouring countries, Kenya is the most exposed to the expansion of the Somali anarchy. 

Kiir should take a bold political initiative

Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan, has managed to collect the support of the regional leaders. But the crisis is deepening. The ceasefire discussions in Addis Ababa are not making any visible progress. The humanitarian situation is worsening.

In this deteriorating context,  the international community should tell President Kiir that the support he is getting from the region should encourage him to seek a political solution. Because of the backing he is receiving from his neighbours he is more than anybody else in a stronger position when it comes to taking the political initiative. He should understand that the region and the international community can only see an all-inclusive political agreement as the way forward for sustainable peace and nation building in South Sudan. Anything else, including the military option, is just a recipe for further collapse and human misery. 

Nairobi communiqué on South Sudan is biaised

It is clear that the crisis in South Sudan can only be resolved through political negotiations between the President´s camp and Riek Machar´s supporters. It cannot be imposed by communiqué, even if the communiqué is signed by a number of the region´s heads of state. In this context, today´s outcome of the Nairobi summit is a bit of a disappointment. And it is certainly not good enough in terms of the peace process. We need a different, more balanced and less formalist approach. 

South Sudan in an unstable region

The role being played by Ethiopia and Kenya in South Sudan deserves appreciation. The leaders of both countries have understood that the Sudanese crisis could rapidly unravel out of control and destroy the country´s fragile unity. It would also have a wider impact as it would contribute to destabilise some of the neighbouring countries as well.

Last year I wrote an essay on the impact of South Sudan´s emergency as a new unstable country on the region: Security and Stability. Reflections on the Impact of South Sudan on Regional Political Dynamics.

I think it is time to read it again. It is available on the NUPI website, the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, with the following link:
http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

Nairobi's drama

Nairobi is a major international hub and a reference city in East Africa. The UN has a very large presence there, including the world headquarters of the UN Environment Programme. In addition, there are many embassies there, a significant number of transnational firms and a dynamic private sector. For many tourists that visit that part of Africa, Nairobi is the entry and exit point. The national carrier, Kenyan Airlines, has become one of the most efficient in Africa. They bring people to Nairobi from many corners of Africa and fly them out to Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the political situation, which had been so traumatizing in the elections five years ago, has evolved in the right direction. This year’s presidential race was a peaceful exercise in democracy. Notwithstanding the ethnicity dimension that is very present in the society, stability has regained the place it used to occupy.

The Kenyan Armed Forces have been a key player in the fight for peace and normalcy in Somalia. They have inflicted heavy pressure on the radicals over there and managed, with other African troops, to get the worst of them, Al-Shabab, out of the Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

Apparently it is this extremist and highly violent group, which is also closely linked to Al-Qaeda, that is responsible for the drama that has befallen over Nairobi since yesterday.  They came to kill and to remind all of us that radicalism and violence are key enemies of democracy and very serious threats to economic and political stability. 

Congratulations to all Kenyans

Kenya’s presidential results have now been confirmed. And one should note the maturity shown this time by the political elite, particularly by Raila Odinga, who challenged the results through the courts and has now accepted the final verdict. This is a sea change compared with the tragic events that occurred after the last elections in 2007. It is another demonstration that many countries in Africa are moving in the right direction.