Supporting a deeper dialogue with Iran

The outcome of the general elections in Iran – let me call them general elections – seems to be quite favourable to the reformists. That´s certainly a very positive development. They represent the segments of society that understand that Iran´s economic development requires a less rigid approach to domestic politics and also better relations with the international community.

It is true that the country still has a long way to go in terms of taking full advantage of its educated youth as well as of its resources. But today´s step is, by Iran´s standards, a big leap in the right direction. Our role, in the European space, is to encourage more commercial exchanges with Iran and to underline the importance of enhancing our political dialogue with the authorities in Tehran. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

Guinea-Bissau is down the rocks once more

Guinea-Bissau is again on the rocks. Last night the President decided to fire the government. This was an unjustified decision – and dramatically wrong from the constitutional and political perspectives – as this government had shown to be committed to bring the country out of two decades of a deep national crisis. This was actually a well performing government that had been commended by the donor group of countries at a recent meeting in Brussels.

I was in discussion today about the new situation over there. And my opinion was very clear. If you want to understand the President and his mistakes, please get in touch with his marabout. Like many powerful men in West Africa, the President is pretty insignificant in front of his marabout. The holy man dictates the President´s actions. 

It´s important to finalise the nuclear agreement with Iran

Let´s hope there is a proper agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue. The region needs good news, and a new type of diplomatic relationships.

If there is one, we should trust the judgement of those negotiating it, from the Western side. They are no dupes.  

Lessons from Afghanistan

This last day of 2014 marks the end of ISAF, the international military mission in Afghanistan. The coalition of combat forces, the largest alliance of states for military purposes in recent history, has been on the ground for 13 years. Throughout this very long intervention, the human and financial costs were immense. Many raise questions. Was it worth the investment, the sacrifices of so many? Was it the best approach to bring together a deeply divided country which had become a breeding nest for violent extremism and negative model of retrograde approaches to life in society? Is the current situation that is left in the hands of the national authorities sustainable? Are we safer at present?

Many thesis will be written about the international assistance to Afghanistan. But beyond the academic papers, the model applied in Afghanistan will also challenge the way we see peace enforcement, international military assistance, and the relations between key international organisations, nation building and national leadership issues. The concept of comprehensive response will also have to be revised. It should include, a few other dimensions, the regional response. Afghanistan is just the inner circle of much larger storm that includes the neighbouring countries. Any military response within the smaller circle can only be effective and sustainable if it goes beyond that circle and brings together a much wider and multifaceted political response.

Beyond these substantive and wide-ranging issues, the points today, at the end of 2014, are to remember all those who have fallen during the many years past and to wish the people of that country and its region a more peaceful 2015. They dramatically need that type of hope.

Qatar should be told to keep away from ISIS

The role and the goals of Qatar in Middle East and also in Africa need to be carefully scrutinised. The Qatari authorities were very much behind the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. They invested billions to support the government of former president Mohamed Morsi. They have been very much behind Hamas in Gaza. And now there are questions being raised about their alleged assistance to the terrorist group ISIS.

In many ways, one has to be clear. Qatar should be challenged. And it is also important to underline that any regime that supports ISIS is an accomplice to a criminal organisation of dark-age fanatics. ISIS has no place in the modern world. And no civilised state should think that funding ISIS will serve its own national interests.

I am for a tough and clear diplomacy in this type of situations. 

Striking ISIS is a good decision

President Obama´s decision to strike ISIS extremists in Northern Iraq should be supported by a large number of opinion-makers. It is time to say no to that type of medieval savagery as the one implemented by these fanatics.

This is a good point for the current administration in Washington at a time when the same administration has been losing credibility because of their vacillating position regarding Israel´s violations of international law and the lunacy of Hamas´s political decisions.

Iraq should urgently seize the Security Council

Iraq is again in deep trouble. The radical combatants of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS) are a very serious menace for peace and stability in the country. Their taking control of Mossul is a very serious indication that the Iraqi armed forces are not prepared to respond to the challenge. It is true that Mossul has always been an unstable city in a restless province. But today´s take over by the extremists of ISIS marks a new stage in a rapidly deteriorating situation.

The government needs external support to effectively stop the ISIS progression towards other regions and in the direction of Bagdad. They should take that request for support to the Security Council without any further delay. 

Egypt´s distress

Egypt´s current crisis raises many questions. Three years ago, the democratic transition for a post-Mubarak era had generated great enthusiasm. Then, after a brief and not always wise passage of the Muslim Brotherhood through power, the military took over. The coup d´état passed unnoticed in the Western capitals, a true miracle, like when one manages to walk in between the drops of the pouring rain. Now, hundreds of people are being sentenced to death, then in many cases their sentences commuted to life in prison, most of them just for the crime of being in the streets during mass demonstrations against the military authorities. It is a mockery of justice in a country that deserves more than this absurd – an unacceptable – way of dealing with discontent.

Below the surface we have a country that is unable to take care of itself. The population growth has been too rapid, a true explosion, and there is no economy to match it. Jobs are just not there. And the traditional solution – to migrate to richer countries in the Middle East – is less and less viable. People are too unskilled to be able to move out of their poor environment. They are trapped. That´s the worst thing that can happen to a poor person.

It is, in many ways, a wake-up call of situations to come in similar countries, in places with the same type of demographic and economic challenges. It should make one think deeply. But before that, it calls for a louder voice that is able to say that something is terribly wrong in the banks of the Nile River. It is time for the international friends of Egypt to step in. 

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

Central Africa and the Sahel

I spent a bit of the day on the news and comments being produced about the dramatic events in the Central African Republic (CAR). And I end up the day very much amazed by the little knowledge people seem to have about the root causes of the current crisis. Then, I wonder how can the external players contribute to a finding a solution to a problem they do not fully understand?

I served in CAR from 1985 to 1989. Then, I came back in 2008 up to 2010, to be deeply involved with the unfolding events.

I vividly remember my discussions with President Bozizé. Including about the role of Muslim armed groups operating in the border areas with Darfur and South-Eastern Chad. And the growing tensions with pastoralists coming from the Sahel. CAR had obviously changed in its social set-up between my first and second stay in the region. And that change was not only a warning of the crisis in the making. It was, in many ways, one of vectors of much deeper and multifaceted transformation that is being imported from the arid lands of the North and moving into the Bantu areas of central tropical Africa. 

Again on Israel and its neighbours

Following my post of yesterday about Israel and Iran, I got call this afternoon from a friend who is also very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu. The caller had just arrived from Israel. And I could notice two things: the country´s leadership is very unhappy with the way the Obama team is looking at Iran´s nuclear issue; they can´t understand why people in Washington are so eager to strike a deal with the Iranians; and then, the second point concerns Israel´s believe they will be able to take military action against the nuclear facilities in Iran and get the tacit but firm approval of many in the Middle East, including the Saudis. This is actually encouraging the hard liners in Jerusalem to go for the bombing.

All this adds instability and unpredictability to a region that is already in deep turmoil. It´s not good at all!