Japan and South Korea

A couple of friends are not paying attention to the growing tension between Japan and South Korea. I am telling them this is a serious development. And that we must be talking about the matter with a louder voice.

 I know this is August, but there is no holiday taking place in that very sensitive part of the world. Japan does not like the way South Korea is approaching the North. They are also worried about South Korea’s policy towards China. However, above all, there are two major factors that make the mixture particularly complex: hard nose trade competition, as perceived by Tokyo, and old anti-Japanese sentiments that permeate throughout the Korean nation. 

All that are dangerous crisis factors. They would call for wise efforts from both sides. Unfortunately, we are far from that, at the present stage.  

  

The Hanoi autocrats

The outcome of the Hanoi meeting – no agreement, not even a joint final lunch, let alone a joint statement – should be seen as a reminder that diplomacy is a complex and lengthy process. It cannot just be reduced to two strong men meeting together. Moreover, when these men are markedly narcissistic leaders, well known for their inability to listen to advisors and other common mortals.

President Trump and Chairman Kim should only meet when all the preparatory work has been completed and every line of any draft agreement is ready to be blessed. The negotiations should not be directly and personally undertaken by these two autocrats. (If you prefer, call them rulers…).

Their meeting can only take place when there is a landmark to be announced or as a final step in the process. Then, they sit together, offer all the possible photo opportunities, and give credibility and trust to the agreement achieved by their respective negotiators.

The only problem is that both leaders are unique cases. They only trust their own judgement like any disastrous strongman we have known in the history books.

Talking about North Korea

The North Korean problem is very much linked to Kim´s power base. Therefore, its solution passes above all through a package of actions that can undermine the dictator's personal standing. Among other measures, which also include ridiculing the man, the diplomatic and economic ones are the most impactful. That means a very high degree of diplomatic isolation of the regime and the intensification of the economic and financial sanctions.

The question cannot be resolved through bombs and bombastic declarations. Such an approach would be used by Kim Jong-Un to his own advantage. External military action against the regime will allow him to further entrench himself in power.   

Please tell Kim Jong-un the truth

Kim Jong-un is a young man. When he took over as leader of North Korea he had an opportunity to make history. He could have initiated a process that would bring the North and the South together. As a young fellow, with a long political future in front of him, this would have been the smart approach, as there is no other way out of the permanent crisis and poverty his country experiences.

He seems now to have missed the boat. For whatever reasons –lack of political sense of the realities, poor strategic advice, pressure from the regime elites, particularly from the military –he has opted for a very serious escalation of the war rhetoric. Some analysts claim this is the usual bluff, a recurrent feature in the Pyongyang politics. I am afraid it is more than that. He and his generals might have managed to be fooled by their own bombastic nonsense. They might have fallen victims of their own delusion.

The fact of the matter is that at present we have a very dangerous situation developing in the Korean Peninsula. If by any chance, Kim decides to launch any attack –in the understanding that he has no means to reach US territory –he and his regime could end up by paying a very high price for the folly.

I hope someone is getting ready to tell Kim Jong-un the truth.  Urgently.