Kim's vital agenda

You meet, negotiate and believe in Kim Jong-un at your own risk. And that’s a very high level of risk, I should add. Nevertheless, it must be done, and surely, with no illusion about the person who is sitting on the other side of the table.

Kim’s ultimate objective is to remain in power. He has no other option, if one considers the criminal and violent actions that he has behind him. Power means impunity. Absolute power means total impunity. In such circumstances, he is determined to decisively tackle anything that might challenge his goal.

I think he believes that the vital threat to his continued control of the North Korean system comes from the other side of the border, from South Korea. Not because of South Korea’s military might, no. It is because of the economic success and the type of society that South Korea represents. That, sooner or later, will end up by having a major impact on the attitude of the population in the North. It has the potential to be the key source of instability.  

Therefore, he wants to keep some kind of superiority vis-à-vis the South. And the only one he can bet on is on the military side. But for that, he must get the Americans out of South Korea. That’s what he is trying to achieve.

At the same time, he is also looking for an end to the economic sanctions. He knows that the sanctions bite. They make the comparison between the standards of living in the North and the South even more dangerous.

These are two elements that must remain at the centre of any future round of negotiations. And please, no illusions, no unnecessary warmth. 

The Hanoi autocrats

The outcome of the Hanoi meeting – no agreement, not even a joint final lunch, let alone a joint statement – should be seen as a reminder that diplomacy is a complex and lengthy process. It cannot just be reduced to two strong men meeting together. Moreover, when these men are markedly narcissistic leaders, well known for their inability to listen to advisors and other common mortals.

President Trump and Chairman Kim should only meet when all the preparatory work has been completed and every line of any draft agreement is ready to be blessed. The negotiations should not be directly and personally undertaken by these two autocrats. (If you prefer, call them rulers…).

Their meeting can only take place when there is a landmark to be announced or as a final step in the process. Then, they sit together, offer all the possible photo opportunities, and give credibility and trust to the agreement achieved by their respective negotiators.

The only problem is that both leaders are unique cases. They only trust their own judgement like any disastrous strongman we have known in the history books.

Putin´s words

Vladimir Putin´s speech on weapons and new missile systems, including the repeated reference to nuclear means, cannot be taken lightly. The Russian President is very strategic when it comes to his public presentations. And yesterday he was clear. He sees the West as deeply hostile to Russia and engaged in a campaign against Putin himself. He believes in what he says, I would add. And he wants us to know he is ready to respond.

We might disagree with his assessment of the West´s intentions. But we must be prepared for all kinds of confrontations. Particularly against cyber-attacks, the most immediate threat coming from his side. He is investing heavily on those attacks. And he is targeting the countries that matter. The big ones. That´s why we witnessed a major cyberattack against Germany in the last two days.

Time for some tough questions about North Korea

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator, is a crazy man. But above all, as a political leader, he is tremendously dangerous. For his people and for the region. He controls an all-pervasive internal security apparatus, a machinery that makes everyone in country look either as mentally retarded or simply terrified. In addition, the tyrant spends most of the country´s limited resources on military hardware, including on expensive nuclear research projects for aggressive ends, and on an incredibly large number of troops, that make North Korea the most militarised country in the world. All this represents a major threat to peace in the region and gives rise to an arms race that includes Japan and South Korea.

The UN Security Council has approved a series of sanctions against the North Korean regime. But the man keeps provoking the international community. Today, it was the launch of four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan.

It is now time to make the sanctions more stringent. They should also be expanded. One area could be related to the international travel of the North Korean officials. Those movements should be made more difficult. And the 47 countries housing North Korean embassies should be advised to limit the privileges of the country´s diplomats.

North Korea must understand they have a choice. One option is to accept the existing international order and behave as a partner country. The other, is to continue the rogue policies of today and then face as much isolation and constraints as the international community can implement. And if such rigorous approach by the international community does not bring a change, then it is time to ask some tougher questions about the way we should treat a regime of such nature. 

A deal on Iran´s nuclear programme should be possible

The nuclear deal with Iran is important for all parties. But it needs to be very clear in its details and monitoring mechanisms. It´s therefore preferable to extend the negotiations than to rush through an agreement that is incomplete and ambiguous. It has taken very long to reach the stage where we find ourselves today. It is therefore worth to continue the discussions for a few more days and weeks if the intent is to reach an accord that is credible and acceptable to all sides, including to those who do not sit at the Lausanne table of negotiations but keep a close eye on what is going on. They are actually those who need to be fully convinced that the deal is good. 

It´s important to finalise the nuclear agreement with Iran

Let´s hope there is a proper agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue. The region needs good news, and a new type of diplomatic relationships.

If there is one, we should trust the judgement of those negotiating it, from the Western side. They are no dupes.  

Iran's presidential elections

The news coming from Iran is good. Hassan Rouhani’s presidential victory sends a very strong signal that the people of Iran want political change, including a better relationship with the West. He will have now to navigate the complex relations that define the power landscape of the country to be able to consolidate his position without raising too much resistance from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners that sustain the regime.

The West has also to show political wisdom and send a signal that they are ready to engage with the new leader. For starters, they should congratulate him on his election, even if the electoral process had some flaws. It helps to say congratulations, even if as just a diplomatic move.