The Hanoi autocrats

The outcome of the Hanoi meeting – no agreement, not even a joint final lunch, let alone a joint statement – should be seen as a reminder that diplomacy is a complex and lengthy process. It cannot just be reduced to two strong men meeting together. Moreover, when these men are markedly narcissistic leaders, well known for their inability to listen to advisors and other common mortals.

President Trump and Chairman Kim should only meet when all the preparatory work has been completed and every line of any draft agreement is ready to be blessed. The negotiations should not be directly and personally undertaken by these two autocrats. (If you prefer, call them rulers…).

Their meeting can only take place when there is a landmark to be announced or as a final step in the process. Then, they sit together, offer all the possible photo opportunities, and give credibility and trust to the agreement achieved by their respective negotiators.

The only problem is that both leaders are unique cases. They only trust their own judgement like any disastrous strongman we have known in the history books.

A bad day for President Trump

Michael Cohen’s most amazing testimony before Congress has completely obfuscated the Hanoi Summit. That’s something President Donald Trump will not forget. But there are many other revelations in Cohen’s evidence that will remain for very long in the President’s mind.

The problem is that they have also caught the attention of Robert Mueller and other prosecutors, in addition to the members of Congress. As such, we can expect very turbulent days ahead for the US President.

It’s true that many will try to dismiss the accusations by saying that Cohen is not credible and that all this is about partisanship politics. Fine, it might work. However, these Cohen facts and stories are very serious allegations. They can be politically fought, certainly defeated. And I do not know how the legal people will act on them. But I am certain that the history will not be kind when judging the current President. And for someone like Donald Trump, the image that will remain in the books is a critical issue. Today, I am sure he is a very unhappy man, notwithstanding the symbolic hugs he got from Kim Jong-Un.

Hanoi or Venezuela: better, Hanoi!

For the US leadership, all the attention must be focused on the Hanoi summit. The meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is the week’s highlight. It must be seen and reported as excellent. Venezuela cannot be a distraction. There will be some diplomatic tightening, some additional isolation of Nicolas Maduro, a couple or so of rambunctious statements and sound bites, but nothing else. Nothing that could steal the headlines from Donald Trump in Hanoi.

Unless the Hanoi meeting goes wrong. It’s not expected, it has been prepared with great attention to sound good. But we never know. It could derail. Then, the usual suspects will be looking for a distraction, for other news that could grab the world’s attention. And that kind of news could be some foolish action regarding the situation in Venezuela.