Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

EU and Russia: every summit meeting counts

The next EU-Russia Summit is taking place on Tuesday, 28 January, in Brussels. It will be a very short meeting. Initially thought to last for two days, it is now planned for three hours. That says a lot about the state of mind of the leaders, on both sides of the table. But it is also related to the fact that the current EU bosses are at the end of their mandates. Later in the year all the key European institutions will be headed by new people.

It would be however a mistake to take this summit as a mere formality. There are important issues on the table, from trade to visa requirements, from Ukraine to the Transnistria break-away region of Moldova. The Europeans should find a balance between pushing forward what is positive and can strengthen the relationship and stating the key principles they believe are important to ensure the full respect for international law and human rights. 

EU and Ukraine: what´s next?

The Ukrainian situation remains at the top of the EU agenda. It is true that the crisis keeps widening. But there is another major reason. Brussels is preparing itself for the next summit meeting with Russia, scheduled for 28 January. And the Europeans are struggling to find a common and effective position on Ukraine to bring to the summit table. The countries to the East of EU are pushing for a very strong statement on Ukraine. They think that will contain Russia´s European ambitions. Other countries, lead by Germany, believe that trade issues are more important than the Ukrainian fate.

In the meantime, Baroness Ashton is getting ready to travel to Kiev. She will bring a message about human rights and democracy. That´s not bad. But it is not enough to unlock the current impasse between Yanukovych and the opposition. 

Ukrainian escalation

We are witnessing a serious escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. There are good reasons to be very worried.

It is now impossible to remain silent and inactive. There is a need to build bridges between the two sides.

It is true that no-one on either side of the divide seems interested in dialogue. But the outside world has to tell them that there is no other way out of the current dangerous situation. 

EU renewal

Greece has just taken the presidency of the EU for the first semester of this year. It is their turn, as the rules go.

And it is a good coincidence that we have Europe´s crisis case in charge.

I hope the Greeks will take advantage of the leadership position and make use of it to bring the South and the North of Europe closer. Greece should promote a new understanding of the relations and partnerships within the EU. Fight the divide and encourage cooperation. 

This would be their unique contribution to the next six months. 

Can they do it? 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Relations with China require a EU common approach

Prime Minister Cameron´s visit to Beijing reminds me that there is no EU coherent policy regarding the relations with China.

It is true that there was a recent – about two weeks ago – summit meeting between Van Rompuy and Barroso, on the European side, and the new leadership of China. But it was more of an empty formality than an exercise on strategy. The Chinese play the game and seem to be very interested in a stronger relationship with the EU. But in fact, they are much more interested in their bilateral relations with a small handful of European countries. They know that national sovereignty feelings are coming back within Europe and they understand that better than the concept of a lose community of shared interests.

But the Chinese are difficult and complex parties to any agreement. They have a very strategic and subtle view of international partnerships, particularly with the West. That approach cannot be matched by a piecemeal approach, on our side, by a short-sighted view of each country´s interests. More. The Chinese leaders will take advantage of the competition that is now shaping the relations among the EU member states.

Barroso´s final months

Barroso has now said, in a TV interview, he is not seeking a new mandate as President of the European commission. His mandate ends in October 2014.

This is a smart move. He has been facing serious opposition from different quarters. Everything started with former French President Sarkozy, who towards the end of his presidency had come to dislike Barroso. People thought that would change with Hollande´s investiture. That has not been the case. Actually, Hollande became an open opponent of many of the EC President´s initiatives. And other EU leaders have also gained cold feet. So, as Barroso announces he will be out of the way in less of a year´s time he gets some free space to make a couple of bold proposals. During the next few months, he will keep an eye on history and will try to strike an initiative that will be for many years associated with his name.

This might also be a chance to see a stronger head of the EC. Europe needs to hear more than a few rumblings. 

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

The art of compromise

At 13:45 hours the European Commission made public their proposal regarding the establishment of a mechanism that would have the authority to deal with banking crisis. The proposed institution would oversee each one of the 6,000 banks –that many, indeed, I agree there are too many banks in Europe –that operate in the Eurozone.

A bit over an hour later, around 15:00 hours, Germany said no to the proposal.

In both cases, the positions were extreme, like two enemies in a war. It's a pity, at a time when the banking union should be moving faster. 

The art of balance, common sense and compromise is being lost in today’s Europe. 

France and the serial blunder

The French have found a new punching bag: it is called Barroso. They are all out against him. They have looked at old closets and found a number of blunders he is credited with. This is a way of making sure people understand that the man is serial disaster.

It is much easier when the blame can be placed elsewhere. Incompetent people just love that! And when the blame is put on a foreigner it’s even better!

Poor France, some would say!

The "reactionary French"

The comments made by the EU Commission President about the “reactionary” French protectionism” are very brave but extremely undiplomatic. Barroso in his interview to the International Herald Tribune said: “Some say they belong to the left, but in fact they are culturally extremely reactionary”. This is a very direct reference to the French President and his position that the trade agreement discussions between the EU and the US should not include “cultural goods”.  France wants to protect its film and music industries from the American might.

Why did Barroso, who is generally very prudent, go that far? He might know something about his future as head of the Commission that we do not know yet. 

EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

EU Commission should be more daring

You ask EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and his team what is the solution for country A or B or C to return to growth and you always get the same prescription. They seem to know only one mantra. It has three lines: augment your exports; lower your labour costs; cut your public debt.

I wonder.

If every EU should boost its exports, where are the import markets?

How far should one lower the labour costs to be competitive with China or Bangladesh?

Why should we cut public debt so dramatically at a time of recession? Why can’t we get the European Central Bank’s statutes changed in order for it to be able to do some quantitative easing? Is Rehn afraid of saying that because he does not wish to offend Berlin?

The point here is very simple. We expect the EU Commission to tell the citizens of Europe what should be done effectively, together and on a country by country basis. They at the Commission are paid to produce an independent advice.

Then, Berlin, The Hague, and other capitals and their national politicians will respond if, yes or no, they want to do it.

A Commission that only recommends what the EU political masters want to hear is useless.  

New leaders are required

The question today is a very painful one: who is in charge of the EU? Indeed, it is sad to note that the European machinery is without a leader, at a time of great confusion and very serious risks for the continuity of the community project. We have not heard a single word from Van Rompuy about the Cypriot debacle. Barroso is travelling in Russia and then goes further east, to Mongolia, but nobody knows what he is recommending. Not even a single word of concern, when many of those who care about the future of Europe feel things are getting tremendously out of hand.

At the national level, Hollande gives the impression he has not been told about Cyprus. Merkel is also silent, which might actually be a better option in her case. And all the others, in the different capitals, are just hiding behind their national borders. Small people are very well known to be fond of the saying “wait and see”…

This crisis calls for a new type of leadership. For people whose voices are clear and able to spell out the direction things should take. For people that are not afraid to say that the way we are now moving brings us to the past. And the past of Europe was pretty ugly. 

Cameron, the European...

Still on yesterday’s meeting of the EU Council, and on the budget for 2014-2020, the big winner is David Cameron. He managed to get Angela Merkel, the Dutch and the Scandinavian leaders on his side. Cameron is the man to watch as far as the future of Europe is concerned.

Another winner, I should emphasise it because people tend to forget his role, is Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council. He led the process with great ability and managed to obtain a consensus without any public recrimination from any of the heads of state or government. Even François Hollande, the most visible face of the losers, kept quiet. 

Barroso spends time in Portugal

Barroso delivered a very interesting speech yesterday in Lisbon. The link to the Portuguese language version of it is the folloowing:

http://ec.europa.eu/portugal/comissao/destaques/20130104_discurso_presidente_fund_champalimaud_pt.htm

Addressing the annual "Diplomatic Seminar", the EU Commission President discussed a number of "erroneous" myths about Europe. In his opinion, the truth is: 1-The current crisis did not start in Europe; 2- Europe is not the sick region of the world; 3- The Euro (currency) is not the cause of the crisis; 4- The EU institutions did provide proposals and ideas to overcome the crisis; 5- There has been solidarity among the European states; 6- Austerity is needed where there is a serious deficit of public accounts.

His participation in the seminar carried a lot of political meaning in a highly politicized environment such as the one prevailing now in Portugal. It shows he is particularly interested in being perceived as a critical national political actor at a time of uncertainty about the future of the current government. He would like to be seen as   a potential "saviour"...Furthermore, his presence side by side with the Foreign Minister, who is not fully aligned with the policies of Prime Minister Passos Coelho, has been considered as giving leverage to minority voices within the government. Particularly if one takes into account that he said that adjustment programmes should be implemented with common sense, not just with determination, and be accompanied by dialogue among all the social actors and good communication packages...These are things that the government has been accused of not paying enough attention to. Now, Barroso seems to have joined the band wagon...

Passos Coelho would certainly have preferred to see the EU President in Brussels. Or the man is back in Lisbon next week again. For another keynote speech.victorangeloblogs.sapo.pt

The Berlaymont ghost

These days, there is a ghost walking the corridors of the Berlaymont building. People talk about him, give him a name, put a French accent in his voice, as they also put words and comments on his mouth, compare him with the present tenant, and feed the malaise.

The current tenant is the one that fears most this strange ghost. He gets very annoyed when he hears his name, and mad when people draw comparisons. He then asks his advisors to talk to the friendly media hacks. The point is to get a favourable press, to show that the ghost is from another time and circumstances. And that, in any case, when he was real, a few decades ago, he was no better then today's man.

Shut up, the big boys are cutting the EU budget!

The UK Prime Minister has drafted a letter to state his government's position regarding the EU budgets for the next years. Basically, David Cameron would see the budgetary appropriations that finance the functioning of the European institutions and the solidarity funds being capped at the level of the 2013 budget. Even the inflation figures would not be fully taken into account.

The PM has convinced France and Germany to support his demarche.

One understands budgets are being cut all over Europe, in each member state. Therefore, there is no political excuse to let the EU allocations, in the years to come, to follow a different course. That's the bright side of this initiative. The darker side is that the cuts will take place, if the will of these three governments prevails in Brussels, in the wrong accounts. The Common Agricultural Policy, for instance, which is an archaic compensatory system that benefits above all the French, German and British owners of very large farms,will remain untouched. No reduction, there. On the other side of this story, the cohesion funds, that are supposed to bring poorer European regions closer to the Union's wealth average, will see significant cuts.

Tant pis, as President Sarkozy would say. Only the weaker states need such cohesion mechanisms. Their voice can somehow be ignored.