One step in the right direction

The Iranian leadership has shown restraint. The attack against two military camps that accommodate deployed American service men was surgical, in order to avoid an escalation of the situation at this stage. That was a wise move. The American leadership responded to it with wisdom as well.

That could be seen as encouraging. However, it is too early to draw any definitive conclusion. One thing is the direct response from the Iranian military and political establishment, another is the way irregular groups can act as part of the feud.

The fact of the matter is that Iran cannot engage in conventional conflict with the US. Its military budget is a tiny grain of sand when compared with the US. Washington spends in about 9 days what the Iranians budget for a full year. We are therefore talking about two different worlds. For the tiny player, the options are clear: either play
 it down or make use of non-conventional means, which are cheap and can be very impactful. I really hope the Iranians will choose the first option. Much better for them and all of us.

European defence and the fools

I have yet not found the time to look at the proposals that are being prepared for the December EU Summit on European defence. But knowing what I know about the national armies in the key member states and all the budgetary cuts and reductions of means that are taking place all over Europe, I am afraid the proposal might be a disaster and an illusion. The so called EU defence might end up by being a ghost that nobody fears.

I recognise we might have some serious reservations about the US and its spying habits. But to think we can have a European defence without a strong alliance with the US is totally foolish. And Brussels these days has plenty of fools roaming around.