Additional notes on the Yellow Vests

In yesterday’s writing, my main point was we cannot ignore the social dissatisfaction some French citizens experience. I had particularly in mind those who live in the sprawling, huge and hastily urbanised areas that ring the most prosperous cities of France. These citizens are wrongly called “suburban people” – an expression that hardly hides the disdain the professional, city-based elites feel towards those persons. The fact is that most of them live in big agglomerations, but those are little more than sleeping areas. The rest of their lives is spent on commuting, long hours wasted in crowded public transportation systems or on congested roads. Everything is far and stressful to reach: work, schools, medical facilities, public services, even the shopping malls. The only people they know are like them, sharing the same frustrations and the same fatigue.

They also know this is a life condition that will continue forever, at best. There is very little hope in the air. The prevailing sentiment is of being trapped. Vulnerable as well. They also believe that they are just ignored by the more fortunate fellow citizens and the political actors. The elites don’t care, that’s the judgement that is often mentioned.

But there two other questions I must raise. 

First, that violence and destruction are not acceptable. There is no justification. Those who practise such acts must be punished. And we all must say no to violence, no to chaos, no any type of public rebellion. 

Second, that these rallies should cease and dialogue be given a chance. President Emmanuel Macron has launched a consultative process that is rather ambitious. It touches some very key issues. And it’s also an attempt to look at democracy and representativeness from a less formal and distant perspective. It’s important to participate in that initiative. It will also show that there is maturity there where it might seem absent for now.

Yellow vests: the key question

Everything we write and read about the root causes of the Yellow Vests movement is based on political and sociological speculation. We should be clear about it.

We know that the high cost of living, the permanent state of fatigue that comes from suburban life, the ever-increasing tax burden and the many forms of resentment against the professional politicians play an important role in the mobilisation. There is bitterness and anger towards the urban elites and the globalist crusaders. These are the key, most immediate reasons for the demonstrations.

We also know that these areas of misgivings and rebellion combine themselves into a complex social malaise.

But are we witnessing something larger and deeper than what meets the idea? Something transformative? That’s the very question that must be answered to.

MENA´s challenges

The total population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is close to 400 million. Of those, more than 50% are under the age of 25. And a very good number of these young people have no jobs. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, the youth unemployment rate is about 28% and this figure is most likely grossly underestimated. And Saudi Arabia is one of the best in the pack…

Furthermore, during the last 15 years or so there has been a very rapid expansion of the number of university graduates throughout the region. In many cases, the university degrees they obtained have only very weak links with the market needs. But the fact of the matter is that the economies of the region – in those countries that still have a working economy – are not able to respond to the job demands.

There is plenty of youth frustration. And this is now a frustration in urban settings as MENA has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world. Frustration of city dwellers leads to the most explosive type of rebellion.

Furthermore, the population growth rate, which is around 2% per annum, is only second to the one in Africa. The numbers are moving fast. They add additional complications to a situation that is already particularly challenging.

Regional leaders seem to be looking elsewhere. And we, in our part of the world, prefer to focus on the symptoms. And not to engage in a meaningful dialogue with them.

On Africa´s future

I have worked in Africa and on African affairs since 1978. I have seen many positive changes and also many crises. 

Based on my experience and taking into account key trends such as the very high rate of population growth and the explosive urbanization that defines many country situations, I can see major challenges ahead. 

For Africa to be a land of opportunities it has first to address the basic needs of the Africans, from education to health, from jobs to energy. And therefore create the opportunities for its peoples. This would require much better governance, more democracy and greater respect for human rights as well as a new type of international cooperation with Africa, including a large number of economic investments to be made by the private sector. 

Mozambique´s enormous population growth challenges

After an agonizing day of hesitation and with great regret, I concluded I could not accept an invitation to deliver a talk in Maputo, at the end of May, on the vast population growth challenges Mozambique is confronted with. The date was not good as I have already a number of commitments around that time. I would have loved to do it. I was the first representative of the UN population agency (UNFPA) in that country, back in 1980. But besides that, Mozambique is a mirror of the situation many African countries face at present: very fast population growth rates, early marriage and teenage pregnancies, as well as very important internal migrations and unemployment issues.

The talk would be an opportunity to contribute to the reflection about the medium and long term implications of all these problems. It would also be an opportunity to acknowledge some of national efforts that the country is trying to implement. And it should also be another chance to call for deeper international partnerships with Africa in matters related to the links between population and development.

I hope these issues will come out loud and clear, in any case. 

Spending time in Addis Ababa

I spent the last few days in Addis Ababa.

My last visit had been in the late years of the 90´s decade. Many things have changed since then. There is impressive economic growth and the city keeps transforming itself all the time. It has also been growing very fast. The country´s population growth rate is very high. Around two million people are added to Ethiopia´s population every year. When I visited Addis for the first time, in 1978, the total population figure was around 37 million, Eritrea included. Today, the Ethiopians are over 86 million, Eritrea not counted, as it has become another country.

These numbers carry major challenges. No country can move fast enough to respond to such a population pressure. Even if the economic growth rate is very high, as it is the case in today´s Ethiopia. And you have to add to it major social inequalities and the tensions that come from ethnic diversity and different strong religious identities.

The government has been able so far to manage these threats. It has kept a very heavy lid on this boiling pressure cooker. The state control is still very ubiquitous. However, the key question is now: how long can this control last as the young people become more and more numerous and urbanised?

A new ball game in town

The social media networks have become major tools when it comes to rallying people and bringing them to the streets. Twitter, Facebook, Whats App, blogs, and many others –the list is very vast –, have been used in the Arab Spring revolutions, in Turkey, and now in Brazil, to disseminate political messages and call for demonstrations.  All of them are free, easy to access, and very common among the young and the urban folks. These two categories of people are, by far, the main source of opposition to any government in the world. In addition, social media tools work better with very short messages, very direct and therefore very easy to apprehend and internalize.