Moving backwards

This afternoon I called a few people in Africa, to find out how the pandemic is affecting their fellow citizens. And I got the same message from each call. Poverty and desperation are the main consequences of border closures and other domestic restrictions. The pandemic is ruining their fragile economies. There are no commercial flights coming in and out, no significant cross border trade, besides the traditional exchanges related to the informal sectors, little exports, and plenty of job losses. This pandemic takes these countries backwards. For those like me who spent a number of years working in the development field, it is an incredibly sad moment. Many of the gains are just being lost.  

We are going back the big way

If I had to select a piece of today’s news, I would go for the WHO Director-General’s warning that the pandemic is still growing in many parts of the world. It has now reached every nation. Many countries are now at a standstill. In some of them, even internal travel is not allowed.

Poverty is expanding rapidly in developing countries. The world is losing what it gained in decades of development assistance. It hurts to acknowledge such a fact, particularly for someone who spent decades in the development line of work. The only hope is that once the pandemic is under control the know-how that has been created in those countries all these past years will be mobilised for a quick recovery. For that to happen, those countries will need major capital injections. The international institutions will have to be the key advocates of such assistance.

The UN's appeal must be heard

The UN Secretary-General launched yesterday an appeal for funds to help the developing countries to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and to finance their socio-economic recovery. António Guterres stated very clearly that this pandemic is by far the deepest crisis the world has faced since World War II. It has many dimensions and all of them tremendously affect the weakest people in the poorest countries of the world. The amount he deems necessary is about $8 trillion US, meaning 10% of the global GDP.

I agree with the Secretary-General’s analysis, approach and amount he is looking for. But I am extremely pessimist as it regards to the response the richest countries will provide. Every country, in the better off regions of the world, is desperately looking for resources to deal with the impact of the Covid-19 within their own borders. The call for international solidarity is a distant call. It will not be heard. The developing world will be left to its own fate.

The developing countries that were better connected to the global economy will gradually re-establish those connections. It will take time for different reasons. The logistical chains of supply have been seriously disrupted, the demand in developed economies will remain weak for a good period and there will be an attempt to produce locally what was up to now imported from afar. International trade might take a new shape, to operate within smaller circles of nations.

The countries that were outside the global sphere of production and commerce will continue to struggle at subsistence level. Poverty will continue to be as widespread as it is now. The opportunities to go beyond the local level will not open. And we can easily guess that international cooperation and aid priorities will go further down in the multilateral agenda.

In both cases, food production for local consumption will become the central concern. Any assistance to the agricultural sector will make a difference. The other concern will be to maintain peace and security in societies that have been profoundly de-structured and further impoverished.

The media that matters is too busy with the Covid-19 progression in the most developed societies to give any serious echo to Antonio Guterres’s appeal. No media attention means additional hurdles in terms of money mobilisation. 

Independently of the success of this initiative, the Secretary-General did the right thing. He must be the moral voice of those who are too far from the wealthy and the powerful to be heard.  

Japan and the EU, on the same side

I am not sure that Friday afternoon is a good time for great political moves. At least, from the perspective of public information and support. The weekend is around the corner and the media tend to go slow. If they mention the action, it will be in a lazy line that gets lost fast. On Monday, it is already an old story. And it would have been overtaken by events happening during the weekly break.

The deal signed on Friday between the President of the European Commission and the Prime Minister of Japan seems to have fallen into this trap. Jean-Claude Juncker and Shinzo Abe put their signature of approval on an ambitious agreement that will see both sides cooperating in different parts of the developing world, including in the Balkans and other countries of Europe outside the EU, to build infrastructure and promoting digital industries. A lot of emphasis will be placed on thorough development projects, sustainability, transparency, national ownership and partnerships with the recipient countries and the appropriate multilateral organisations.

They called it a connectivity partnership between the EU and Japan. It can work, if we consider these are two of the largest economies. Together, they represent over 23 trillion US dollars of GDP, which is larger than the US ($21 trillion). And much bigger than China (USD 9.2 trillion).

The point is about politics. Both sides must make this cooperation a priority when dealing with developing nations. And they will be competing with China’s offer, the fast-moving Belt and Road Initiative. That will not be an easy competition. The Chinese leadership are deeply invested in the Initiative. To compete, the Europeans and the Japanese have no choice but to insist on projects that have the support of the populations – not just of the political leaders in the concerned countries – and are financially sound and proper. These are no technical or money matters. They are about strategic political engagements.

Our 2019 political rentrée

Here, in our corner of the world, the political rentrée is upon us. The summer break is now over. And this year’s rentrée will see the changing of the guard in the EU institutions. With the new leaders, old unresolved issues could gain a new breath of life.

One of such issues must be the strengthening of the EU external policy.

We must develop a stronger common approach to critical international matters, such as the many crises in the Middle East and the pressing issue of Africa’s development. In addition, we must give shape to a more independent view of Europe’s global interests and dare to seriously move towards joint defence and security efforts. 

We also need to strengthen our alliances with other parts of the world. However, we must recognise that our perception of certain key issues is not necessarily coincidental with that promoted by some of our key allies. Such differences are not just momentary. They are not simply the result of leader X or Y being in charge in one of the countries that matters to us. They are deeper, as we have walked different historical paths and have created our own way of looking at what is going on in some problematic regions of the world.

Africa meets Japan

Just to note that today the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told African leaders that his country will commit $30 billion over the next three years in public and private support for infrastructure development, including power generation, education and healthcare expansion in the continent. The Japan-Africa Summit took place in Nairobi. More than 30 heads of state and government from across Africa attended the meeting.

There are a number of reasons for the Japanese renewed interest in Africa, well beyond the nice and diplomatic words that were said at the Summit.

In addition, the current African Union Chairman Idriss Deby, who is the President of Chad, urged Japan to contribute to the recent established African Fund Against Terrorism. This fund was set up by the Kigali AU Summit last month. It shows that security is a major priority concern for the African leaders. 

Brief note on the EU Global Strategy

In the future, the EU development cooperation policy cannot just be focused on governance, security and human rights. These three domains are certainly crucial. We need to see improvements in all of them. But we cannot ignore the food security challenges, the health needs, education, gender equality, energy and some critical infrastructure. They still required massive foreign aid. They are also essential to lift people out of poverty, including the future mothers of tomorrow. And to make sure people feel encouraged to remain in their native lands. A comprehensive view of development cannot just be reduced to one size fits all.

Still on corruption: aid transparency

Aid transparency ranking:



Data compiled in the Aid Transparency Index and released by Publish What You Fund in April 2016.

Only 10 donors, responsible for only a quarter of all aid, are hitting the mark in terms of transparency of their funding programmes. We know that transparent aid flows do significantly contribute to increase accountability in recipient countries. And we also have spent the last 25 years listening to excellent lectures on good governance, as delivered by excellent representatives from donor countries and agencies. 

I believe the table speaks for itself. 

Being positive on Europe Day

Every 9 May, the EU celebrates Europe Day.

This year we might conclude there isn´t much to be happy about. Martin Schulz, the EU Parliament boss, in an interview to a Portuguese daily newspaper, compared Europe to a bicycle with “flat tyres”. Basically, it would mean it has to keep moving but there is no air in the rubbers, the wheels can´t move properly.

I think we should be a bit more positive nonetheless. At least today.

The EU is still one of the most attractive places to be in the world. For its quality of life and for its standards of living. Also, because it is a space of liberties – yes, plural – and rule of law, as well as a continent of peace and security. It is still pretty predictable in terms of one´s human rights. And, in international relations, it is a major actor in the fields of development and humanitarian assistance.

These are some remarkable dimensions that one should emphasise on this day.

Making the distinction between humanitarian and development aid

At present, with the refugee crises and the displacements of people in many countries, the humanitarian funding needs are exceptionally high. Several donor countries have markedly increased their contributions during the last few months. Among them, the European Commission and some EU countries, as well as the US, have shown leadership. They are again among the top contributors to humanitarian assistance.

The challenge is to finance the humanitarian response without cutting the aid development budgets. These should be seen as two different strands within the international cooperation finances. But the fact of the matter is that in several countries the humanitarian resources are generated these days by diverting development money to meet immediate requirements. The development assistance resources for 2016 will be seriously affected, if this trend is not reversed. 

On Africa´s future

I have worked in Africa and on African affairs since 1978. I have seen many positive changes and also many crises. 

Based on my experience and taking into account key trends such as the very high rate of population growth and the explosive urbanization that defines many country situations, I can see major challenges ahead. 

For Africa to be a land of opportunities it has first to address the basic needs of the Africans, from education to health, from jobs to energy. And therefore create the opportunities for its peoples. This would require much better governance, more democracy and greater respect for human rights as well as a new type of international cooperation with Africa, including a large number of economic investments to be made by the private sector. 

Five good examples of development assistance

A brief note to put on record five good examples of commitment to international development assistance. In 2014 the following countries’ financial contributions to development assistance exceeded the agreed threshold of 0.7% of their GDP: United Kingdom, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden. Sweden, it should be added, was particularly generous. Its financial assistance to development programmes and projects reached 1.1% of its GDP.

These countries and 23 more make the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD. The average contribution of the DAC countries to development, also in 2014, remained well below the target – the 0.7% figure – at a mere 0.29% of GDP. 

Development co-operation requires leadership

In a discussion this afternoon about development co-operation the OECD Development Aid Committee President, Erik Solheim said that leadership is essential for change to occur.

He knows what he is talking about as he himself was an important agent of change in his home country, Norway.

But I have the impression that leadership in the area of development is lacking nowadays. After the Busan (Indonesia) conference in 2011, where new principles for aid assistance were agreed upon, too much emphasis has been placed on partnerships and very little on the responsibility to lead the process. And when everyone is in charge nobody leads. Without clear and responsible leadership we see the UN (UNDP) and OECD struggling to get heard and to make things to happen. Or, UNDP and OECD should be accepted as the leading players in the field of international co-operation.

Co-operation is indeed about partnerships. But someone has to guide the process. If not, each player will go about it as he/she sees fit. And that is at present the case. 

UNDP and the interests of the private sector

UNDP, the UN Development Programme, is about to finalise its new policy on partnerships with private corporations and foundations. Initial indications tell us that the organization will not accept any kind of association with firms and institutions linked to the tobacco and arms industries.

This is certainly a good decision.

It will be interesting to find out if the exclusionary criteria will also include financial houses that make tonnes of money on speculative transactions as well as other companies that are known for their very limited respect for local communities or the environment. 

Obama's great speech

President Obama’s speech on the State of the Union is inspired by a progressive outlook and modernity. It is highly advisable to read it carefully. It is a great lesson on politics and public speech. The style is direct and conversational. It has a strong human touch, with several references to real people. And above all, it proposes a number of directions and this is the trademark of a leader: to set the ambition!

Its references to clean cars that will move on alternative fuels, not on oil, to women’s rights and full empowerment, to the need to stop the violence against women,  and also the observations about development co-operation are remarkable paragraphs in a statement that is full of extraordinary reflections.  

EU Budget: too long a period at a time of uncertainties

I should write about the EU budget 2014-2020, as approved today by the EU Council. And add that even if the total amount matters, what matters more is how money is allocated. How much money goes for the big issues that have a strategic impact over the future of Europe? That’s the key question.

And what are those issues?

First, those related to the economic disparities between different corners of the European space. How can we unite the Continent when some countries and regions are kept far behind in terms of development and the gap keeps increasing?

Second, investments in science and technological research. The future of Europe has to be built on a knowledge economy, not on steel and textiles. Unless, of course, if the textiles are at the sharp end of the creative industries, both in terms of design and advanced materials…

Third, funds and programmes for youth employment promotion, youth education for the jobs of the future, preparing a youth with a European mind-set and a global outlook.  

Fourth, internal security, including cyber-security, and security co-operation with the neighbours of the EU.

Fifth, a common external policy, including an effective development aid agenda and enough resources for humanitarian relief and response.

These are the budget lines we need to look at, as a matter of priority.

Having said that, I am also very concerned about a process that approves financial resources for a long period of time – seven years – when we live in a world that is changing rapidly. It is good to have a long term vision but it is better to have a system that is flexible and can be adjusted to respond to new challenges as they develop. I do not think the EU budgetary process is tailored for that.