On Mali and the region

 

In today’s Diário de Notícias (Lisbon)

Notes on Mali

Victor Angelo

 

 

Mali is a fascinating country, diverse in its landscapes and cultures. It is home to great singers and traditional musicians who play the korah, an ancestral instrument made from a large gourd, the Dogon masks and statues, birthplace of the city of Timbuktu, a unique historical reference in Islamic studies. For four centuries, until 1670, Mali was the epicentre of a great empire in West Africa, an empire recognized by Portuguese explorers, who traded extensively with it across the Gambia River. I would also add that I had several Malian colleagues at the UN who proved to be excellent professionals and held important positions in the different multilateral organizations. I write this to fight the summary opinions of those who are in the habit of arranging everything African in a dark corner, in the shadow of the usual prejudices. I am sad, like many others, when I see the country tearing itself apart and becoming insecure, as it continues to do daily.

Mali has made the news again in the last three weeks following the military coup of August 18. It is, for the same reason, the subject of debate, including in European circles. Moreover, some conspiracy theorists have seen Moscow's hand behind the colonels who took power, a hypothesis I consider unlikely. But there are other hands at work in Mali, from France to Saudi Arabia, and with vastly different intentions.

Also, at stake is the role of the United Nations, which has maintained a peace mission in the country since 2013, with more than 15,000 elements. MINUSMA, as the mission is called, has, over time, become a case study because it has not been able to respond to the political and governance issues that are at the heart of Mali's problems. The political direction of the mission resolved, to please the French and out of strategic opportunism, to stick to the president that the coup has now deposed. In New York, at the Security Council, no one had the courage to correct this trajectory. Thus, credibility is lost, and the future is mortgaged. 

Returning to the current debate, it should have emphasized that more than two thirds of Mali's population is under 25 years of age. And that education and the economy are unable to meet the challenges that such an age pyramid entails. When I was in Mali for the first time in 1990, its total population was around eight and a half million. Today, thirty years later, it is close to twenty million. The same happens in the other countries of the region. They all have explosive age pyramids. Demographic pressure has grown throughout the Sahel along with the advance of desertification and poverty. Being young in the Sahel means looking to the future and seeing only a multitude of arid politics, a desert of opportunities and a chaotic and inhumane urban habitat. Thus, hope and social peace are hard to achieve. All that remains is migration to Europe, or else adherence to armed banditry and fanatical rebellions. Fanaticism has grown exponentially over the past decade, thanks in particular to the proliferation of mosques, Wahabist koranic schools and radical preachers, all financed by the Saudis and others of the kind. 

Those who neither emigrate nor join the extremist groups, vegetate in the big cities, where they can observe how social inequalities have become blatant, the fruit of the corruption that prevails in political circles, in the security forces and in the administration of justice. They also see that European countries and other international actors turn a blind eye to the manipulations practiced by the powerful. This is what happened in Mali. After months of popular protest against the indifference of the president and the greed of his own circle of friends, a group of senior officials decided to act. They have popular support, at least for now. It is true that one should not support anti-constitutional coups. But it is also true that one can no longer pretend that one does not see corruption, ineptitude and the failure of territorial administration, with vast areas of national space without any state presence. The mitigation of crises begins with the promotion of probity and the restoration of local power, beyond the treatment of youth issues. This is what we must remind the colonels, the leaders of the region, the UN Security Council and the European partners of Mali, Portugal included. 

 

 

Fighting the extremes

Polarisation and radicalisation of views might become two of the main consequences of the current health tsunami. People will withdraw into their little familiar spaces and will end up by seeing everybody who is outside of the small circle as a potential threat. Everyone will be perceived as either belonging or being a stranger. In the best of cases, they will look at them with a great dose of indifference. Political activists, from both extremes will try to take advantage of those feelings. There is a serious risk of seeing the extremist positions becoming more combative. The point is to be able to spot such trends early enough and be able to decry them. There are many tasks ahead, in these extraordinarily complex times. One of them is for sure to oppose any move towards radicalisation and identity politics.

Screen politics

I call it TV democracy. People spend years watching superficial and foolish things on their TV screens – most of the channels are just light on substance and short on comprehensiveness – and then acquire a simple and biased view of public life. They are therefore ready to vote for people like Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro, meaning, for simple minds that speak to the most common stereotypes and views. Those elected have the legitimacy the polls give to the winners. But they do not possess the knowledge and the experience that are required to lead a country. They know that. They react to it through arrogance and a fighting stance. And they keep implementing demagogic and inflammatory policies, to hide their weaknesses and respond to the primary feelings of the TV watchers. Their leadership is based on showmanship, on theatrics, and on headlines.

This ends up by eroding the democratic institutions and creating deep fractures within the nation. These leaders are expert dividers, specialists on managing people’s passions and instincts.

TV democracy is a serious threat to national progress, social cohesion, and stability. Unfortunately, in many countries, we seem to be moving in such a direction.

France and radical Islam

Radical Islam is being taught in several mosques of France. The preachers are paid by countries such as Turkey or Algeria. In most of the cases, they do not speak French, or just a few words, do not know the laws of the country and have an approach to civic life that is not compatible with the accepted practices. The Ministry of Education has no authority over such schools.

All this divides the French society. The children that go through such system are not prepared to integrate the wider society. They feel they do not belong, which is one of the most damaging feelings one can have vis-à-vis his or her own country. And many citizens end up by developing a strong bias against such system and Islam in general. They end up by voting for extreme right parties.

President Macron today addressed the issue. He said it is time to bring the State into such system and make sure that the preachers understand that France is a lay republic, where the laws do not discriminate people because of their religious beliefs or lack of them. His words have shown that one the most difficult communities to deal with is the one linked to Turkey. The Turkish government keeps sending imams to France without any consultation with the French government. And those imams are more interested in keeping their students linked to Turkey than anything else. That creates a serious division in society.

The mass immigration is a fact of life in France and in many other European countries. However, it cannot be a cause for significant cultural fractures in the host countries. Our countries have a set of values that were built along the path of history. They are the mainstream cultural cement that keeps our societies together. It would be a serious negligence not to protect those values. It would certainly open the door to dramatic conflicts within our own borders.

Let’s see what Emmanuel Macron will be able to change. This is important for France and for others within the EU.

Dangerous radicalism in America

The American people are very divided when it comes to President Trump’s political performance. Such polarisation was especially visible yesterday, during the delivery of the State of the Union. The President’s style is very divisive. His policy is not about including as many segments of the American society as possible. It is about creating his own support base and keeping it loyal and militant. This approach leads to a profound radicalisation of politics. It’s a worrying option, because from radicalism to violence the distance is very short.

Poor democracy

For many opportunistic politicians, the truth is a MIA – missing in action. Values have been kicked aside, in today’s partisan disputes. The politicians do not want to recognise the facts if those facts play against them and their political friends. It is more than just lying. It is deep bad faith, and no shame. It is to negate the evidence and logical dimension of the facts. In the end, that creates deep divisions, extreme rancour and an immense discredit of everything political. With time, it might lead to violent action as well.

It is very worrying as a new trend.

We have now daily examples of that, in our democracies. And as I wrote yesterday, our democratic systems are therefore continuously undermined. And our societies are becoming more extreme instead of more harmonious.

If you fail, try blackmail

When political bullying fails, the fellows try blackmail. The French call it “chantage”. That’s what some Brexit hardliners have been suggesting this weekend. They recommend that the Boris Johnson government sabotages the work of the EU institutions, if his deal proposal is not accepted and he is forced to ask for an extension. In their lunacy, they have even advised Boris Johnson to appoint Nigel “Crackpot” Farage as the British Commissioner in Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission. They see Farage as the Chief Disruptor.

All this is childish. And it is also amazing to see some sectors of the British Conservative Party falling so low. Their anti-European fanaticism makes them politically blind. It blocks their minds and impedes them from understanding that cooperation and mutual benefit are the only winning cards. Radical Conservatives just keep moving away from the traditional British common sense.

Good riddance, Ambassador Bolton

John Bolton is a crazy warmonger. I expressed my deep concern when he was appointed US National Security Advisor. I should now show some degree of relief because he has just been sacked by the President. That’s a piece of good news. It also reveals that the President is more balanced than some of the crazies that claim to be part of his inner circle. He might be an erratic leader. But, at least, he seems to understand that military strikes are not exactly a solution to the many issues that complicate today’s international agenda. I hope the next National Security Advisor will come from the profession and not from the area of radical politics. There is still enough radicalism within the current administration.

Salvini will become Trump's man in Europe

The Italian people will decide what next, when called to vote for a new government. That’s how our democracies work. It is however quite clear that one of their potential choices, Matteo Salvini, is an anti-European Union, for reasons he knows better than anybody else. He is also an extremist, fully supported by the most reactionary sectors of the Italian society. Many voters might think that he represents the kind of leadership the country needs. But there are also large sectors of the public opinion that see him as the wrong type of choice, someone that can bring disaster to the country. And that disaster could happen quite soon, it is not just a question of long term.

From a European perspective, if Matteo Salvini becomes Prime Minister that is bad news. He will carry division, xenophobia and ultra-nationalism to the European debate. Consensus building will become even more difficult than it is today. He is the enemy from inside. There is no bigger enemy than the one that lives among us.

He is also the strongest ally of the EU’s outside enemies. Some analysts mention his subordination to Vladimir Putin’s money and interests. That is dangerous enough. Putin’s agenda is to destroy the European unity. But I see an additional peril. He will become President Donald Trump’s agent within the EU, in the Council meetings and every time a key decision that might contradict the American policy is on the table. President Trump is no friend of the EU. If I were asked to prioritise the outside leaders that are hostile to the common project, I would start by referring to his name as number one. And I would add that such antagonism is particularly risky, as it comes from the leader of a country that has very close ties with Europe and a strong presence in some of the EU countries, not to mention that it is the most powerful nation on earth. President Trump and his circle will be making good use of Salvini’s duplicity and radicalism.

These are indeed new challenges. They certainly require a different understanding of the old established practises.

Iran, West Africa and the info war game

We are witnessing the emergence of a new campaign against Iran that includes “information” about that country’s growing presence in West Africa, the Sahel and Sudan. It basically says that, following data available to certain security agencies – not named –, Iran is engaged in building a network of terrorist cells in those regions of Africa. Those cells would later be activated against Western interests in the countries concerned.

I have known these corners of Africa for decades. And I have several friends in positions of authority in the area, including in matters of internal security. There is indeed a serious increase of radical activities and armed groups over there. But their link with Iran seems very unlikely. Certainly, very difficult to prove. Those radicals are inspired by Sunni fundamentalism, whilst Iran is a Shiite proponent of Islam.

What I have noticed, and my friends have confirmed, is that the new radicalism in that belt of Africa is mainly supported by groups and mosques based in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, especially in Qatar, as well as in Pakistan. In addition, there is also some influence coming from Egypt.

The investigation must be thorough

The brutal acts of terrorism that occurred on Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka raise a good number of key questions. The answers are not yet known. They require time and serious analysis of every piece of information. One of the most important questions must be about the mastermind. The attacks have shown a very high degree of preparation, a well organised chain of command and a deep effort of indoctrination, the brainwashing of the suicide bombers. All this is profoundly disturbing. One needs to find out what kind of structure allowed this level of coordinated, well-targeted destruction. First, the families of the victims must know who is responsible. Second, we all need to be sure that such capacity to do evil is annihilated.  

Macron and his European vision

This evening, the French President addressed a message to all Europeans about the future of the European Union. It's a very clear agenda for action. And a strong signal that the EU calls for leadership and renewal. A warning, in many ways, but with militancy and optimism.

The message can be read in English in the following site:


https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en

Sahel and the Islamist threat

Another link on the Sahel security situation:

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/the-complex-and-growing-threat-of-militant-islamist-groups-in-the-sahel/

On the Yellow Vests

The French Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) have now demonstrated every Saturday since mid-November. Yesterday it was their 12^th Saturday of mass rallies in Paris and other cities and towns of France. We cannot ignore the meaning and the political dimensions of such a movement. It must be better understood, first. Then, we should reflect about the response that should be provided.

I get the impression that both questions – understanding and responding – have not been fully considered.

Many words have been written about the grievances, but they do not explain the persistence of the street protests. Moreover, in winter, which is not the best season to be on the street and public squares. The analysis of the root causes calls for more objectivity and less ideological explanations.

The response the government has adopted is two-pronged: massive police presence during the manifestations, to prevent violence and looting; and the launching of a campaign of national dialogue, to look at issues of taxation, State organisation and political representativeness, as well as climate policies. But both lines of the response are being challenged. They have not convinced a good deal of those complaining, even among those who do not come to the streets on Saturday. 

The matter needs therefore a much more comprehensive assessment. It’s very much on the table.  

Turkey´s path

It´s worrisome to see the Turkish society being pushed towards more political radicalisation and deeper national divisions. It´s also a matter of great concern to watch its leadership moving away from accepted democratic principles. And taking the country in a direction that is contrary to greater proximity with the EU. 

Who is in charge?

The journalist from Macao asked me who in the EU is taking the lead in the fight against populist and xenophobic ideas. It was a genuine question with a serious touch of apprehension. For someone from afar two things seemed to be obvious: that there is a growing extremist political wave in Europe and that some personalities are for sure fully engaged in combatting such trend.

Well, for me, the first part is indeed obvious. The current radicalism combined with old fashioned nationalistic fantasies is a matter of concern, for sure. But the other dimension – who is taking the lead and proposing a more generous and democratic alternative that would make the European dream great again, as someone would say – the answer is not so easy. Actually, I am still looking for an answer.

On domestic security matters

The concept of “war against terrorism” is not appropriate for our European societies. We are not at war. We have a very serious challenge in terms of domestic security. But it is a security issue to be dealt with by the police and the internal intelligence services. War would mean a major disruption of normalcy. We want to keep the same routines and be convinced that the security services are indeed equipped to match the challenge. They might of course be supported by the armed forces. But that support has to be much smarter than just placing a few soldiers in shopping malls and other public spaces. The politicians need to understand that the military can do much better things than just standing out there.

Responding to terrorism with wisdom

Yesterday´s horrendous attack in Berlin cannot be used by the extreme right to further their hate campaign. We should not allow it to happen.

The people responsible for the violence are terrorists and they should be dealt as such. We cannot fall into stereotypes and start looking at every refugee as a potential threat. Refugees are just fellows like you and me. The main difference is that they had to run for their lives. They are not in the business of taking other people´s lives. The criminal that comes to us and tries to do us harm is just that, a criminal. He might represent a new type of danger. But that´s the world of today, the upshot of some very serious crises in different parts of the world.

This seems to be understood by the vast majority of the German people. They are deeply sad and disturbed but they remain calm and have demonstrated they do not fall in the trap the extremists are so good at laying. We should share their pain but also their wisdom. 

September 11

In a wider sense, this is the day to remember all those that have been victims of terrorism during the last 15 years or so. And the best way to honour them would be to speak clearly against all the states and associations that somehow support, foment or create the sectarian conditions that lead to radical views and violent actions.

We have to be much clearer about these matters. Actually, we should not be silent about the destructive policies that some countries conduct and that have a direct impact on radicalisation. The fight against terrorism should start that way. Name and shaming is powerful political tool.

Poverty, drought and neglect in the Sahel

It is with deep sadness that we have learned about the loss of another five peacekeepers deployed in Mali with the UN mission. They were killed yesterday by a group of armed men. The mission has been repeatedly targeted. This time the attack took place in the central region of the country, well outside the troubled areas of Northern Mali. It´s therefore a new development and one should be very concerned. It shows that the insecurity is now reaching other provinces. It also raises a few questions about the dissemination of extremist ideas to different parts of the Malian countryside. Endemic poverty combined with a couple of years of drought and abandonment by the central authorities make some people more attentive to the words of local preachers that have acquired their simplistic views in some faraway places in the Arab Peninsula.