Europe is heading towards nasty social confrontations

Europe´s cost of living is too high. In addition, the tax systems are too heavy. For many families the money is not just enough. And that explains, in many ways, why we have more and more nasty general strikes and street protests in countries that have been traditionally quiet. When the income is short, compared to the costs of living a basic life, any cut on salaries, pensions, subsidies or allocations makes a big difference. The problem is that we should expect more income reductions and therefore additional social conflicts. 

Human rights are the starting point for a better life

I am not sure North Korea celebrates Human Rights Day, as we do today.

And I am pleased that this year the day comes just after the publication of the report on CIA´s torture cases. That reminds us that human rights is a never-ending struggle, even in the old democracies of the West. Actually, my long trek over the world has made it clear that human rights issues, be them related to police brutality, violence against women or children´s slavery, or the freedom of speech for every individual, are the most critical issue people aspire for. A man or a woman might be poor. But he or she wants to be respected and given the space to take care of him or herself. That´s the true essence of life. Respect for each individual. And that´s a good starting point to encourage people to move out of poverty and despair. 

Hollande and Putin: a good move

President François Hollande´s stop in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin was certainly a smart diplomatic move. In international affairs, when there is a crisis, dialogue and personal, eye-to-eye contact are much better options than public statements and speeches.

You might ask what has come out of today´s meeting. Well, the answer is very simple: a clear message that the West considers that the partnership with Russia is critically important for both sides. Such a message should also keep the lines open. And we must have good quality lines to be able to engage in a productive conversation. Clarity comes out of exchanges of views.

It also comes out of lengthy meetings. In today´s case, two hours of discussions when only one hour was scheduled says a lot about the complexity of the dialogue that is needed. 

Reporting on war and weapons

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has just published its annual report, a flagship compilation of data and analysis about last year´s wars, military expenditures and weapons production and trade. It is an excellent reference document.

Unfortunately, it also shows that the world is indeed a dangerous place. And that international security remains a major concern in the field of international relations.

The UN and the regional organizations continue to play major roles in peace and security, notwithstanding their own contradictions and other shortcomings. The truth of the matter is that without them, the world would be even more insecure. It is also true that the cooperation between all these international organisations could be stronger and more effective. That remains a priority for the future. 

Putin´s paranoia and the people´s feelings about the West

President Putin´s speech on state of the Russian nation is pure Cold War vintage. The old ghosts are back in his words and his vision of the West´s relations with his country. He sees conspiracies against Russia in every move and every fact that happens in our part of the world. It´s pitiful view of a relationship that should be based on trust and cooperation instead of suspicion and blind competition. The only possible outcome of such a policy is further underdevelopment of the Russian society, both at the institutional and economic levels. And to aggravate things further, 72% of the Russian voters think the President´s approach is right. Putin´s narrative is synchronised with the people´s feelings of a nation that is great but that has never been appreciated by the West. These feelings and the narrative are difficult to change because there is very little room in the nation for those who would like to express a different view of things.

Russia´s is moving fast to become a major disaster at the footsteps of Europe. And that is for sure a matter that is of great concern for all of us in Europe.  

A clear policy declaration on Ukraine´s situation

Today´s statement by the NATO Foreign Ministers about the situation in Ukraine is a strong and clearly-worded policy position. It should be read with due care. I am sure that will be the case in Moscow. 

EU mission in Ukraine

The EU has initiated the deployment of an assistance mission to Ukraine to support the civilian dimensions of security sector reform: police, prosecution, justice, penal system. This will a large deployment for an initial period of two years.

It is certainly a good move. It should contribute to bring the civilian security system up to more acceptable standards. But the mission will face very serious obstacles within the Ukrainian security establishment. The officers, at every level, are used to practices that come from the old authoritarian times. That´s their level of comfort, their culture in dealing with the citizens. In addition, there is a lot of corruption built in the system. And corruption is a source of income in a country that is in serious economic difficulties and pays very low salaries.

With these difficulties in mind it will be important to closely monitor how the EU mission will respond to these challenges.

It will also be necessary to watch the performance of the mission leadership. 

Get the citizens´support back: the priority for the EU at this stage

I wrote today, in my contribution to the next issue of the Portuguese magazine Visão,  that the indifference of the citizens towards the European project is the most critical menace to the continuation of the Union. With the economic crisis, nations got used to look inwards and try to find their own solutions to challenges that were shared and should have been tackled jointly. As such, citizens lost the European perspective. The message they were getting from their political leaders was very clear: if there is a major crisis, each country has to take care of itself.

This erroneous approach needs to be corrected. Politicians and opinion makers have to underline, in very unambiguous terms, that the only way forward is for a joint European strategy to address critical issues of common interest. That will the first step to regain the support of the citizens. And that´s an urgent task. 

OPEC is moribund

OPEC, the oil countries organization, is less and less relevant. It´s deeply divided, it´s unable to attract new member states to join the 12 that make it, and its total production is less than one third of the overall oil production figure.

Today´s meeting has shown the impasse the organization is in. And the price of oil has tumbled as a result. 

What to think of Juncker´s economic plan?

Jean-Claude Juncker´s plan for economic recovery and expansion has now been presented to the European Parliament. It will be important to follow the parliamentary debate during the next few sessions, to see if this is a plan with wings and able to fly or just another heavy monster chained to cannon balls made of interests and flat ideas.