Travelling

On travel to faraway lands, as of today and for a good week. Well, the point is to keep the eyes wide-open and learn as much as possible. Withdrawal and fighting globalisation are now top on many politicians´agendas.

These issues bring votes. But do not open a better future. And do not bring peace and tranquility. The problems have no borders, as the international mass, uncontrolled migrations and the Zika epidemic show. We might talk about building walls but there is always a way around them.

Better face the issues up-front.  

The EC, Ireland and Apple: time to be reasonable

The European Commission´s decision regarding Apple is the new subject in the priority list of EU concerns. Two days ago, after a two-year probe, Brussels announced that the tax favours Ireland had offered Apple during many years had been judged illegal. It ordered the US multinational to pay tax arrears – just €13 billion plus interest, which adds another €1.4 billion to the bill.

Now, the government of Ireland says they do not approve of the EC ruling. They don’t want the money and consequently they have decided to seize the European Court of Justice for it to annul the decision taken by Brussels.

This matter raises a number of issues.

On the political front, there are several: it complicates the economic and trade relations with the US, taking into account that the US Administration itself has in the recent past imposed very heavy fines on EU companies; it questions the role of the EC on matters of national taxes, particularly when the country in question is at the periphery of the European economic space, has very limited resources and needs to attract investment to generate jobs; and there is the impact of all this on public opinion, at a time when the European citizens are drowning in deep tax waters, being taxed beyond the reasonable and seeing, at the same time, that the big corporations can do smart tax planning and pay amounts as low as 0,005% on gains, as Apple did in Ireland in 2014.

On the legal front, we can expect a long process. It will be a field day for lawyers and lovers intricate disputes.  It will particularly be interesting to study the arguments of each side. There will a new doctrine on multinationals, on national taxes, on investment advantages and benefits. It will be fascinating, if one is patient enough to follow the matter.

However, the best solution would be an arbitration. That´s what we have to recommend. There is a case, no doubt, but there is also an excellent opportunity to be realistic and even-handed.

Brazilian politics

Dilma Rousseff´s impeachment might be seen from different partisan perspectives. Fine. But my point is a different one. It´s about constitutional processes. And her trial by the Senate followed the procedures established in the Brazilian Constitution. The debate was not always serene and had a number of much undignified moments. Yet, in the end, it was democracy in action through institutional mechanisms.

On a different point, let me refer that some of the Senators and other top political actors might not be an example of probity. There is plenty of corruption within the party machineries. That should be the next political challenge for the people of Brazil. If that is tackled with steadiness the poor citizens, that have been the main support of Dilma and her movement, might become more inclined to accept the impeachment decision of today. It is therefore time to speak about launching a laundry political process.  

TTIP premature death announcement

Sigmar Gabriel is the number two person in the German government. But he is not a member of Chancellor Merkel´s party. He is the leader of the Social Democrats and his party is in a grand coalition with Merkel´s own grouping. As we come closer to the next round of general elections in 2017, the Social Democrats seem to be now more concerned about pleasing the voters than on a serious approach to public affairs. Their eyes are popularity.

That might be the reason why Gabriel yesterday declared the TTIP – the transatlantic trade agreement between the EU and the US – as dead in the water. And in his words the fault should be laid on the American side. Their demands could not be accepted by the health-and-environment conscious Europeans, he implied.

Gabriel knows that the trade agreement with the US, which has been under negotiation for about four years, is not popular among many in Europe. And he was trying to play to their feelings. The wrong approach, I add. As a leader, he should be at the forefront of those explaining on is at stake and how important it is to be patient but firm and get it done.

Today his government and Brussels came out to say that the news of such a death are exaggerated. The negotiations go on and many chapters have already been agreed upon, notwithstanding Gabriel´s words to the contrary.

TTIP should be completed as soon as possible. It is in our own interest to have a closer commercial relation with the US. And it gives us also some additional strength in our economic discussions with the Russians and others.

Actually, as about 90% of the articles are ready for mutual endorsement, it would be possible to sign up for those and let time and further discussions take care of the remainder points. That has been my position. We do not need to have everything ready. We approve what is ready, as stage one, and move on to stage two, to complete the negotiations on what is still pending. It is a pragmatic way of proceeding. And it sends some strategic messages around us.

The danger of paralysis

Paralysis is the key hazard the EU faces as we start the political rentrée. The leaders must respond to this threat by showing a renewed commitment to the common European ambition. They should stop putting all the blame on the EU institutions. And they should explain to their respective citizens that the EU matters and should be strengthened.

Angela Merkel is somehow doing it on her own initiative. But she cannot be alone in such an endeavour. 

Africa meets Japan

Just to note that today the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told African leaders that his country will commit $30 billion over the next three years in public and private support for infrastructure development, including power generation, education and healthcare expansion in the continent. The Japan-Africa Summit took place in Nairobi. More than 30 heads of state and government from across Africa attended the meeting.

There are a number of reasons for the Japanese renewed interest in Africa, well beyond the nice and diplomatic words that were said at the Summit.

In addition, the current African Union Chairman Idriss Deby, who is the President of Chad, urged Japan to contribute to the recent established African Fund Against Terrorism. This fund was set up by the Kigali AU Summit last month. It shows that security is a major priority concern for the African leaders. 

What is behind the burkini

In past couple of days I wrote a number of lines about the burkini hullabaloo in France. They were addressed to the Portuguese readers as the controversy has gone beyond the French borders and attracted very serious attention in several European countries. It´s a good summer story at a time of the year most newspapers are looking for light pieces to entertain the vacationers.

But this is no light subject. The burkini hides a number of political issues. It is not just a matter of freedom. It is the tip of a political iceberg.

One should note that even now that France´s Conseil d´Etat – the Supreme Court for these matters – has decided that the ban on wearing a burkini is illegal, the vast majority of the French people are for its prohibition. This reveals a new state of mind in the country. Public opinion has been deeply traumatised by the acts of terror that occurred during the last two years. They want to feel safe and at home in their own country. And they see the beach swimwear as an expression of radical Islam. Moreover, they see it as a banner that says no to the French way of life. It´s an expression of a culture that is foreign to many mainstream people. And that is less and less tolerated.

  

All this calls for a moment of introspection about the future. But it has to be carried out with greater serenity than what we have seen so far.

Cooperating with Central Asia

As I prepare my forthcoming trip to Central Asia, I realise the region is facing a complex set of challenges that remain largely ignored in the European circles of power. We still look at the region as an extension of the Russian sphere of influence. And we keep away. We are convinced there is very little chance of a triangular cooperation that would bring together the five countries of the region – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – plus the EU and Russia.

That might be the case for now. But it is the only path towards addressing the issues and preventing them from getting worse. This includes issues related to the expansion of faith-based extremism.

Cooperation in the region is also critical for the future of Afghanistan. This country is deeply linked to Central Asia and the strengthening of its economic and security ties with the region would bring additional opportunities for stability and growth in that part of the world.

Thank you, Brazil!

In the end, Brazil should be commended. The support provided to the Olympic Games has been quite valuable. The country might be facing a lot of political and economic problems but still it was able to deliver the environment the Games needed. It is fair to recognise it. 

On the US elections

When someone like Donald Trump is competing for the top spot, politics end up by focusing on temperament and the candidate´s suitability for the job. The debate is no longer about ideas and programmes. That´s what we are currently seeing. And that´s where the focus of Hillary Clinton´s campaign should be. But she should keep away from being directly involved in those attacks. People around her can do that business. She should continue to speak about the way she sees her presidency, her policies and priorities. As she does it, she should emphasise that on the other side of the spectrum there is only vacuity and incongruence. And keep repeating it as the aides keep underlining the opponent´s erratic personality.