Regarding
the killing of its star general, Iran might be envisaging an asymmetric response
– meaning, through non-conventional means, making use of all kinds of irregular
groups and covert operatives. I guess it would be a tit for tat, an eye for an
eye move, an assassination attempt comparable to what happen to their man in
Baghdad. They would consider that a measured response, a limited act of
revenge.
I
am afraid they would try to implement such an intent. They must be firmly and
promptly advised not to pursue such a line. It would be a very serious mistake,
as things stand now. The US would consider such strike as both escalatory and a
trigger for a campaign of massive retribution. It would be like opening the
gates of hell.
That’s
why major international players must move fast in terms of re-opening the
dialogue avenues. EU countries could play a major role if they dare to decide
to pursue such an endeavour. It ought to be a well-publicised initiative, to
help the Iranians to save face, combined with an extremely confidential and prudent
set of moves.
It
is a realistic possibility. It just requires the appropriate leadership at the
EU level, people that could be accepted by both by the US President and the
Iranian leaders.
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