What next in the Persian Gulf Region?

Regarding the killing of its star general, Iran might be envisaging an asymmetric response – meaning, through non-conventional means, making use of all kinds of irregular groups and covert operatives. I guess it would be a tit for tat, an eye for an eye move, an assassination attempt comparable to what happen to their man in Baghdad. They would consider that a measured response, a limited act of revenge.

I am afraid they would try to implement such an intent. They must be firmly and promptly advised not to pursue such a line. It would be a very serious mistake, as things stand now. The US would consider such strike as both escalatory and a trigger for a campaign of massive retribution. It would be like opening the gates of hell.

That’s why major international players must move fast in terms of re-opening the dialogue avenues. EU countries could play a major role if they dare to decide to pursue such an endeavour. It ought to be a well-publicised initiative, to help the Iranians to save face, combined with an extremely confidential and prudent set of moves.

It is a realistic possibility. It just requires the appropriate leadership at the EU level, people that could be accepted by both by the US President and the Iranian leaders.  

Venezuela: mediation, mediation, mediation

Today’s situation in Venezuela moved a step closer to national tragedy.

Very concerned, the UN Secretary-General called for both Government and opposition forces to exercise “maximum restraint”. That is a necessary call.

But certainly not enough.

It is a passive reaction to a major development in the Venezuelan crisis. Antonio Guterres should also be offering his mediation authority. Mediation between both sides remains the only peaceful opening, the only hope to avoid additional loss of life and humanitarian suffering.

 I know the big bosses in Washington do not want to hear that word, mediation. They are simply betting on Maduro’s total defeat. But the Secretary-General cannot just pay attention to Washington. He is the voice of the world and the standard-bearer of common sense. His duty is to be at the service of peace. For that, he must underline in very clear terms that the UN good offices are the most reasonable way forward as far as Venezuela’s future is concerned.  

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

Syria: the key Foreign ministers should remain closely engaged

One can have plenty of doubts about the realism and feasibility of the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, adopted yesterday. However, in view of the extreme complex situation the country is going through, a situation that has lasted now for too long, any move by the UN should be appreciated and encouraged. Particularly this one that has been discussed at the level of Foreign ministers. Actually, the continued personal involvement of the ministers will be required as we go into the implementation phase. That´s the best way to ensure that they see this process as being under their direct responsibility. The UN Special Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, can be the personification of the international community´s commitment to Syria. But he will need the unswerving support of the key ministers. That will be key for any progress to take place. 

UN cannot be missing in action

The agreement reached between the two presidential candidates is key for the stability and security of Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani, the future president, and Abdullah Abdullah,  who will have his nominees in key positions within the new Cabinet and as governors of some provinces, are both top politicians and very reasonable, experienced individuals. They are among the best in the country´s political class. But they represent different domestic interests as their tribal links are based on geography and ethnic politics. The agreement between them should therefore be seen as a balancing act between the tribes from the North, closer to Abdullah, and the South that basically supports Ghani.

The balance was struck thanks to the continued efforts of John Kerry and the US ambassador in Kabul. The US made the agreement possible.

This has shown, as it is nowadays happening quite often, that the UN mission in the country has not been able to play the mediation role they should have. This is no good news. Particularly because the same weak role is now the trademark of the UN in some other conflicts around the world.

It might be the moment to raise one or two questions about the current state of affairs of the UN´s peace-making efforts.

Fortunately, on the same day the deal was announced in Kabul, the UN envoy in Yemen was in a position to convince the warring parties in that collapsing country to sign a ceasefire accord. That´s a bit of good news about the UN. But it is not enough.