Purpose
To inform APEC leaders of the strategic risks posed by Russia’s current foreign and economic policies and their potential impact on regional stability and economic cooperation.
Key Observations
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Militarisation and Geopolitical Assertiveness
- Russia prioritises hard power over diplomacy, using the Ukraine conflict as leverage for global influence.
- Increased military presence in the Arctic and Asia-Pacific signals readiness to escalate tensions, undermining regional security.
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Economic Weaponisation
- Energy exports remain a geopolitical tool, with infrastructure projects used to divide allies.
- Despite extensive sanctions, Russia sustains its war economy through alternative trade networks, deepening global fragmentation.
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Strategic Dependence
- Russia’s “pivot to Asia” has led to structural reliance on China, limiting autonomy and raising long-term viability concerns.
Implications for APEC
- Trade Disruption: Russia’s stance on sanctions and WTO mechanisms introduces friction into APEC’s consensus-driven model.
- Security Spillover: Militarisation risks transforming economic forums into arenas of strategic rivalry.
- Normative Erosion: Push for “multipolarity” challenges rules-based governance, creating uncertainty for smaller economies.
Recommended Actions
- Reaffirm APEC’s Core Principles: Emphasise rules-based trade and economic cooperation.
- Strengthen Collective Resilience: Diversify supply chains and enhance energy security to reduce vulnerability.
- Engage with Caution: Maintain dialogue on economic issues while countering destabilising tactics through coordinated responses.
Bottom Line:
Russia’s policies combine revisionist geopolitics, economic opportunism, and strategic dependency. APEC must navigate engagement carefully to safeguard stability and uphold its mission of inclusive, sustainable growth.
