Briefing Note: Russia’s Policies and Implications for APEC

Purpose

To inform APEC leaders of the strategic risks posed by Russia’s current foreign and economic policies and their potential impact on regional stability and economic cooperation.

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Key Observations

1. Militarisation and Geopolitical Assertiveness

   • Russia prioritises hard power over diplomacy, using the Ukraine conflict as leverage for global influence.
   • Increased military presence in the Arctic and Asia-Pacific signals readiness to escalate tensions, undermining regional security.

2. Economic Weaponisation

   • Energy exports remain a geopolitical tool, with infrastructure projects used to divide allies.
   • Despite extensive sanctions, Russia sustains its war economy through alternative trade networks, deepening global fragmentation.

3. Strategic Dependence

   • Russia’s “pivot to Asia” has led to structural reliance on China, limiting autonomy and raising long-term viability concerns.

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Implications for APEC

• Trade Disruption: Russia’s stance on sanctions and WTO mechanisms introduces friction into APEC’s consensus-driven model.
• Security Spillover: Militarisation risks transforming economic forums into arenas of strategic rivalry.
• Normative Erosion: Push for “multipolarity” challenges rules-based governance, creating uncertainty for smaller economies.

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Recommended Actions

• Reaffirm APEC’s Core Principles: Emphasise rules-based trade and economic cooperation.
• Strengthen Collective Resilience: Diversify supply chains and enhance energy security to reduce vulnerability.
• Engage with Caution: Maintain dialogue on economic issues while countering destabilising tactics through coordinated responses.

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Bottom Line:
Russia’s policies combine revisionist geopolitics, economic opportunism, and strategic dependency. APEC must navigate engagement carefully to safeguard stability and uphold its mission of inclusive, sustainable growth.

The world is next door

During the weekend, I spoke with friends living in Africa, South East Asia, Australia and the Pacific, as well as in Rio de Janeiro. I also have many friends in other parts of the world, from San Diego where dear Christine leaves to Helsinki, and so on. Had I chatted with them too, and I would have gotten the same report. Large chunks of the world are either closed or on a go-slow situation. Even remote places like Bougainville, an Autonomous Region of Papua New Guinea, is on lockdown. This is just an incredible reality. The world is getting poorer by the day.  The debt levels, both public and private, are growing by the hour. Elections are being postponed in many corners of the planet, except for a few cases, including Mali, that voted again today in the second round of their legislative assembly.

In many developing countries, the lockdown approach can’t work. People need to go out every day because survival is a daily chore. Moreover, in their cities, they live in large numbers in small and unfit dwellings. Overcrowding is the rule. There is no way they can follow the instructions about hygiene and social distancing. Extreme poverty means extreme fragility. And the health services have no capacity to deal with the disease. It’s a major problem. People are afraid but they know they have no other choice but to keep on moving. Fate, my friends remind me, is the currency of the poor. It’s the only thing they have in abundance. And after listening to that, I feel so disturbed.