Israel and Iran

It would be a mistake to underestimate Israel´s strategic interests as we get closer to the next round of negotiations with Iran.

The country´s leaders see Iran as a major threat.

They will try everything – including in the Capitol Hill in Washington – to make sure that the pressure on Tehran is not eased out. And in their tricks box, there is the menace of unilateral military action against the nuclear installations in Iran. The public mentioning by the Israelis of such a possibility is in itself a way of convincing Washington that an agreement with Iran is only good if it is a lose-win accord.

 And that is not possible, as I see it, because no leader in Tehran will accept an agreement that looks like a defeat. 

A very complex environment around President Obama's choice

As we reach the end of today, we notice that the President Obama’s military option is losing momentum in the US House of Representatives and also in the American and European public opinions. It is become a tough call for the President.

In addition, Pope Francis's letter to the G20 leaders cannot be easily dismissed. The Pope reminds all of us that there is no alternative to the crisis but through dialogue and that a military intervention will make things much more difficult.

All this is creating an environment that will be deeply against the strikes once they take place. President Obama – and François  Hollande as well – will have to deal with the consequences in and around Syria, plus with the citizens’ views in their respective countries. This will transform  any military action into a political challenge of great complexity. It will open many unknown avenues.