Syria: failure and despair

Syria´s tragedy is spreading fast into the neighbouring countries, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan. Chaos and human distress have reached new levels, as it is also the case regarding insecurity and instability. People are just desperate, after so many years of war. Those who can afford the fees are now paying large amounts to human traffickers to take them across the sea into Europe. Even at this time of the year, when the seas are rough and the weather threatening. This is no time for hazardous crossings but the anxiety is so high that people just try to sail through. Everything is better than staying behind.

Their sense of urgency is not matched, on our side, by anything similar. We seem to have accepted that there is no solution to the Syrian crisis. The Security Council cannot agree on any meaningful approach to the resolution of the crisis. Now, Russia is preparing a conference – another so-called high level meeting! It will take place in a couple of weeks but nobody knows what for. It is not even clear if the UN Special Envoy will be given any significant role in that meeting. It could be just another excuse for the lack of substantive action. But, as things stand, it´s OK to go for it. At least it will allow a number of voices, here and there, to recall that the Syrian crisis is a major failure of today´s world. 

Iran and Syria

Throughout the day there was a lot of controversy about Iran´s participation in the Geneva II talks on Syria, scheduled for Wednesday. The key Western powers looked at Secretary-general Ban´s decision to invite Tehran as a serious blunder. And he got quite a number of calls to change his mind, which he did. The invitation was withdrawn under the pretext that Tehran had not endorsed the transitional framework that came out of Geneva I.

Beyond this tangle, the point the SG was trying to make is very simple and clear. Iran has to be part of the solution. The Syrian crisis has many hands in it. One of them is at the end of the long arm that connects Assad with the Iranian leaders. If the other hands are in the kitchen, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, there is no reason to bar Iran. A negotiation is not just to be held between friends. It should bring together adversaries and enemies. 

A very good gaffe

John Kerry’s remark on the international control of Syrian chemical weapons might have been a blunder. But thanks to Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, the blunder has become a tiny window of opportunity. And in a world that is tired of wars and abominates state-sponsored violence, as well as all types of violent conflict, the blunder is now a powerful argument against one-sided strikes.

History is so often built on blunders. And historical blunders have led to so many disasters. Maybe this time we will have a positive development coming out of a gaffe. 

A very complex environment around President Obama's choice

As we reach the end of today, we notice that the President Obama’s military option is losing momentum in the US House of Representatives and also in the American and European public opinions. It is become a tough call for the President.

In addition, Pope Francis's letter to the G20 leaders cannot be easily dismissed. The Pope reminds all of us that there is no alternative to the crisis but through dialogue and that a military intervention will make things much more difficult.

All this is creating an environment that will be deeply against the strikes once they take place. President Obama – and François  Hollande as well – will have to deal with the consequences in and around Syria, plus with the citizens’ views in their respective countries. This will transform  any military action into a political challenge of great complexity. It will open many unknown avenues.

No time for a greater crisis in the Middle East

Very quietly but very clearly, the big international business bosses and their friends in the academic and media worlds here in the EU have been sending the message that a major security crisis in the Middle East at this time, when the European economies are starting a timid recovery, would be an extremely bad idea. It is not just the vast and uncontrollable uncertainty that it will create, not just the impact on oil prices, not just the fact that existing crisis around the Suez Canal is threatening enough, to mention only a few of current hot spots. It is all that combined plus the fact that some of the Middle East countries remain major clients and investors in the EU economies. It is no time to destabilize them, as well. International commerce does not want any adventure at this moment. 

Syria's hell

As things stand, we can expect over the weekend some cruise missiles to be launched on Syria from war vessels sailing in the Mediterranean Sea or in the Indian Ocean. In many ways, the rhetoric in Washington, Paris and London has gone too far. The accusations against Assad on the gas deaths of last week leave little room for any other option but action by those who publicly made them. The UN Security Council is being dealt with by the British. In the international division of labour, they got the assignment. Once it becomes clear that the Council is not prepared to authorise the use of force by rejecting the British draft resolution, the unilateral approach will be more palatable to the Western public opinion.

There are many problems related to military action, in any case. Even if approved by the Security Council. Once it starts, it opens a new phase and a box of unintended consequences. This is particularly true in a corner of the world that is like a tinderbox. Therefore, those who decide to go for it should be ready for hell. And they should also have a clear end-game alternative. Unfortunately, experience has shown that we think small and never prepare for the big and complex situation that will follow. 

Assad is a war criminal

The gas attack against civilians in the suburbs of Damascus simply reveals how little respect Assad and his circle have for the international community and in particular for the United Nations.  They all know that the UN is divided and that the just launched international inspection is a mere tooth-less tiger. The many deaths caused by this unacceptable chemical massacre only serve to remind all of us that Assad has long become a war criminal with powerful godfathers.   

Assad, the master of the cemetery

Syria has very much disappeared from the radar screen of international affairs. The “July Conference” is like July itself: no more! The EU and the US seem to have concluded that Assad is not moving out of power. In addition, the Syrian opposition they could work with is more divided than ever. Turkey, on the other hand, after its own domestic social unrest, has cooled down its enthusiasm to play a bigger role in the neighbourhood. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia keep moving apart, with divergent interests at play.

Assad is therefore keeping the moment and the initiative. He knows that time and the mood in the international community are favourable to his aims. He might be ruling the ruins of a country, but he will be in power. For a tyrant, this is the best insurance he can get. It is better to be in charge of a cemetery than to be in the uncertainty of exile. 

The losing side

The true message that came out of today’s Friends of Syria meeting is that the many rebellions are losing the war. That’s the actual trend on the ground. New weapons for a divided, weakened opposition are just a way of effectively playing on Assad’s hand. He will have a justification to continue the military option, which has given him a new breath of life, and an excuse to postpone any negotiated solution. In the end, the Syrian population will be the real loser. 

Obama's red line on Syria

The US Administration has now found evidence that the Syrian army made use – “limited use” – of chemical weapons.

This is, for the Americans, the crossing of a red line. Washington has therefore decided to provide military assistance to the rebels' Supreme Military Council (SMC) and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

It is yet unclear what that type of assistance the new development entails. Things will become much clearer in the next days. What is clear today is that the rebellions are under serious pressure from the Assad troops. Only massive and urgent aid from the outside world might be able to save them. Or, I do not thing that President Obama is thinking of anything that might be massive and urgent. In that case, any low-grade military assistance at this stage will not change the current trend on the ground.