O meu podcast publicado no Expresso e reproduzido nos orgãos de comunicação social da Impresa, sobre o reconhecimento da Palestina.
https://expresso.pt/podcasts/o-mundo-a-seus-pes/2025-09-22-reconhecimento-da-palestina-e-fundamental-mostra-claramente-oposicao-a-politica-seguida-por-israel-a49db9fc
1. The UN and the General Assembly: Between Symbolism and Effectiveness
The UN was created to foster cooperation and peaceful conflict resolution, but today it is hostage to great power rivalries. Its credibility and effectiveness depend on reforming the veto system, holding member states accountable, and balancing national sovereignty with global governance.
This text is a summary of a longer text I published today 19/09/2025 in Diário de Notícias (Lisbon)
The world smells dangerously like gunpowder
Victor Angelo
The Munich Security Conference, an annual event now celebrating its 60th edition, begins today and runs until Sunday. As has become customary, it is a high-level meeting. This time, it will feature the participation of around 50 Heads of State and Government, another hundred ministers and a good number of leaders of international organizations, academics, thinkers and journalists of international importance.
The report that serves as the basis for this year's conference makes a diagnosis of the main ongoing conflicts and, in summary, suggests two conclusions. First, geopolitical competition continues to worsen, now reaching a level of intensity and complexity unprecedented since the creation of the United Nations. Second, the reestablishment of international cooperation must be seen as an absolute priority. Only in this way will it be possible to resolve the most dangerous challenges, which in reality know no borders and have an impact that cannot be ignored. It is a positive recommendation, in a report that is, in essence, pessimistic.
When reflecting on 2024, the rapporteurs particularly draw attention to the growing risks in four regions of the globe. We are told that the international scene has more fires than firefighters, that there is an accumulation of serious crises to be resolved and an international system that is no longer respected. It's a clear question: instead of all of us winning, would we all rather lose?
One of these regions is Eastern Europe. The geopolitical vision that prevails in the Kremlin is a threat that must be taken seriously. It consists of increasing arrogance and aggressiveness, based on ancient practices of first inventing conflicts with neighbors seen as rivals, and then trying to resolve them with swordplay. My reading of this region is familiar: either Russia withdraws and recognizes the sovereignty of Ukraine, or what is now happening in that country will end up spreading to others in the region. A crisis of this kind would bring immense problems to the unity of NATO and the major countries of the Western world. In democratic contexts, these alliances are more fragile than they might seem.
In the Middle East, that's a powder keg. It is a region of great fractures, where xenophobia and the absurdity of decisions taken in the 20th century are added to cultural and religious hatred, and a multiplicity of borders that do not respect historical identities and give way to nations without homogeneity and without resources, to in addition to oil and gas.
What is conventionally called the Indo-Pacific is another problematic area. It demands increasing attention, as it could be the theater of a major conflict surrounding the issue of Taiwan and beyond. Xi Jinping has just been reappointed for the third time as leader of the single party and as President of China, for new five-year terms. At the end of these terms, he will be 74 years old and no one knows if the conditions will exist for him to be re-elected again. Now, in my opinion, Xi wants to go down in history as the leader who managed to subdue the Taiwanese rebellion. If that is indeed his ultimate ambition, it is very likely that military action against Taiwan will take place before 2027. And if Trump is in the White House, distracted by pursuing his internal adversaries, starting with the Biden family, Xi could conclude that The time has come to step forward and inscribe your name at the top of the list of heroes of communist China.
The Sahel forms the fourth region of deep insecurity. At the moment, the list of absolutely unsafe countries includes Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. It must also include Sudan, which is plunged into a merciless civil war and a humanitarian crisis of unimaginable proportions. But Sudan has been excluded from media headlines in an unacceptable way. The crises in the Sahel have all the conditions to spread, as is already happening on a large scale in Nigeria and now in Senegal, due to the political confusion created by the president. In the same Senegal that had always been considered an example of stability and democracy.
Three other major themes are also discussed in this year's report: the growing disparities and economic rivalries between different blocs around the world, including with regard to what could happen with the development of the BRICS; the consequences of climate change on international relations, including migration; and the impact of the technological and digital revolution.
The report describes a world evolving in a worrying direction. And it would be even worse if the spectre that roams the corridors of Munich, silently, were re-elected in November, as no one likes to talk about evil spirits. But November is still a long way away and until then anything can happen.
A.I: translation of my opinion text published on 16 February 2024 in the Lisbon daily newspaper Diário de Notícias.
Artificial Intelligence translation of my opinion column dated 2 Feb. 2024 and published in Lisbon in Diário de Notícias
From Ukraine to Gaza: where is European coherence?
Victor Angelo
With exceptions, politics is a world inhabited by opportunists. Five hundred years ago, Niccolò Machiavelli entered the history of modern political science when he wrote on the subject, placing emphasis on the word cynicism. But the practice came from antiquity and continues today, in governments, parties and the ability to manipulate citizens' opinions. Ethics, that is, respect for principles, for the common interest, for contemporaries and for future generations, is a word that makes many people in politics laugh, covertly. For these, the only thing that counts is their personal benefit, guaranteed by maintaining power thanks to a political clientele.
In the case of the EU, Viktor Orbán repeatedly reminds us of this truth. It is the worst example of a European leader. Orbán plays with a double-edged stick: on the one hand, to show that he belongs to the club of democracies, as a member of the EU, and, on the other, to make the most of the available funds. The staff he leans on is called Vladimir Putin. This allows him to spend the money coming from Brussels without serious controls and to govern without respect for democratic rules and in a corrupt manner. The counterpart that gives him strength is to complicate European politics in a way that pleases his friend of convenience, the master of Russia. This explains why Hungary continues to not approve Sweden's accession to NATO. There is no other reason than to do Putin a favour. And that is also why, until yesterday, it prevented financial aid to Ukraine — 50 billion euros. This amount is essential to keep Ukraine afloat over the next four years. Hungary has also opposed the creation of another European fund for military cooperation.
All this serves the interests of Russian imperialism. It contributes to the weakening of Ukraine and aims, in the long term, at the disintegration of the EU. Now, Russia is currently the main threat to peace in Europe. It is a hostile country, an enemy in the style of the past. As long as it maintains this behaviour, Russia must be treated as such, without hesitation. Orbán, when he behaves like a de facto ally of Putin, is betraying European interests.
It's time to call things by their names. Years ago, at a European summit, Jean-Claude Juncker patted Orbán on the back and joked, calling him a dictator. Today, he could perhaps add the word traitor.
However, at the "H" time when it is essential to guarantee Ukraine's future, we see the US handcuffed for months on end. The country is deeply fractured, internally, from a political and social point of view, and faces a number of foreign policy problems that disperse its intervention capabilities and confuse the order of priorities. It's the southern border. The problematic alignment with Israel. The obsession with Iran. The suicidal competition with China. The fear of North Korean madness. Putin's unpredictability. And now, the specter of Trump. All of this gives rise to two major conclusions. Europe, that is, NATO on this side of the Atlantic, cannot rely on US assistance in the event of a conflict in Europe. And Ukraine must seek to establish bilateral alliances with European and other countries as it continues its response to the Russian invasion. These alliances must above all be established with nations neighbouring or close to Russia. These are states that sooner or later could come into the Russians' sights, if Ukraine were unable to resist the Kremlin's aggression.
Europeans must step up support for Ukraine. Approving financial assistance for the next four years is an excellent step. Regarding the Ukrainian crisis, Europe has adopted the most appropriate positions. The same cannot be said with regard to Israel. There has been, on the part of the major European nations, an incoherent attitude towards the drama in Gaza. They swallow everything that Benjamin Netanyahu serves them on a plate. When the Prime Minister of Israel wanted to forget, last week, the preliminary orders of the International Court of Justice, which were clearly addressed to the Israeli government, he spoke of the 12 UNRWA agents who would have participated in the attacks of October 7, in a universe of 13,000 Agency employees in Gaza. He did not present any kind of evidence, nor did he talk about the colossal disproportion between the numbers, nor about the extraordinary work that UNRWA has been doing for 74 years, but his diversion was a masterstroke. And he managed to create an uproar against an organization that has helped millions of Palestinian lives. Several European countries opportunistically took advantage of the wave created by Netanyahu.
Many will think that on the European side, meekness, armchair politics and inconsistency prevail. Or, simply put, the cynicism of those who pretend not to understand what the word ethics means dominates.
Articial Intelligence translation of my opinion piece of this week published in Portuguese in daily national newspaper Diário de Notícias (26 JAN 2024)
Gaza: an earthquake in international politics
Victor Angelo
The Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs was in Brussels this week, at the invitation of Josep Borrell. The purpose was to allow the minister to discuss three major issues with his European counterparts: the dramatic situation in which the population of Gaza finds itself, within the framework of the enormous military intervention ordered by Benjamin Netanyahu; the requirements for an immediate ceasefire; and the dimensions and phases of preparing a peace plan.
Borrell was aware of Security Council Resolution 2720 (2023), which approved on December 22 the implementation of humanitarian pauses and the opening of corridors that would allow essential goods for their survival to be delivered to the inhabitants of Gaza. The Security Council had recognized the extreme urgency of humanitarian assistance.
A month later, it is undeniable that the situation continues to worsen. Israel reveals absolute disrespect for the Security Council. Controls became even tighter. The hundreds of humanitarian trucks that should enter Gaza daily are faced with a tragically different reality. Borrell mentioned that the average would be around eighty trucks a day. Calls for “humanitarian pauses” have been met with an intensification of military operations and the continuation of attacks against civilian targets, including UN installations, which prefigure war crimes. Resolution 2720 has been simply ignored, despite its mandatory nature.
Regarding peace, the approach proposed by Europeans would be multidimensional. The first concern would be the creation of a sovereign State of Palestine, capable of peacefully coexisting with the State of Israel. This idea is nothing new. It was approved in 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly (Resolution 181) and reaffirmed in the 1993 Oslo Accords and at the Camp David Summit in the USA in 2000. But it never went beyond paper, with both sides accusing each other for failures.
The international community is firmly committed to this solution – two independent states. This is the only viable, albeit complex, solution that can lead to the construction of a peaceful neighbourhood. It will only happen if there is an unquestionable commitment from interested parties, as well as from countries in the region and the main members of the UN. It needs, above all, Israeli and Palestinian leaders of exceptional vision and calibre.
The current Israeli government does not accept this solution. And contrary to the Palestinian National Authority, there are Palestinian extremists who also do not accept it. This shows that the tragedy that is taking place in Gaza, and to a certain extent in the other occupied Palestinian territories, in the West Bank, can seriously contribute to a radicalization of positions.
The Israeli minister did not understand the message that awaited him in Brussels. He talked nonsense about strange, meaningless things, such as the construction of an artificial island off Gaza and a railway corridor that would connect this territory to the rest of Palestine. In my opinion, it was a way of conveying to Europeans a clear position from the Netanyahu government, for whom the EU is seen as a featherweight.
Borrell responded, at the press conference after the meeting, that Europe has “a moral responsibility”. He spoke of looking for a path to peace. I would respond that the moral responsibility that must weigh on our consciences is not only to fight for peace, but also to ensure that humanitarian laws and the laws of war are respected. And bring individuals suspected of having violated these international rules to the attention of Karim Ahmad Khan, the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC). That's what the ICC is for, to judge political leaders. It is a separate instance from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which judges conflicts between States, as is now the case of South Africa against Israel and which today issues a first Order on the accusation of genocide. Khan, who is a British citizen, was very active in the case of the accusations against Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova. He did what he was expected to do. But he has been as low as a stone in the face of the atrocities committed on October 7th and ever since. The credibility of the ICC is thus called into question.
We live in a time of great dangers and enormous challenges. Anyone who has their eyes open and sees beyond their parish knows that this is the case. Extraordinary times require extraordinary political courage. And serious justice, impartial and expeditious.
1. The UN System, under the leadership of the SG, is fast moving to be ready to implement SC res. 2720. This should be acknowledged.
2. The Israeli government is ignoring the resolution and expanding the military aggression. The SC should draft a new resolution to impose sanctions on key Israeli leaders, in view of their disregard of res. 2720.
3. This is not just about averting “a greater catastrophe and uphold dignity”. It is also about full respect for international law and the SC’s decisions. The Israeli behaviour violates international law and must be dealt with as such as well.
4. The peace in the region is about to unravel. This should be mentioned as a major concern.
5. Hamas leaders must also be prosecuted.
6. The call for a total and immediate ceasefire must be loud, clear, and express a strong sense of urgency.
7. Special responsibility lies with the UNSC. We must bring the UNSC back to the centre of key peace processes. Its members, particularly the P5, must show they can force the parties to implement a resolution like the 2720. Enforcement must become a very central priority for the SC.
8. The humanitarian response should go together with the launching of a political process.
9. The sovereign rights of the Israeli and Palestinian peoples are unquestionable.
Joe Biden, the Middle East and consistency in politics
Victor Angelo
After two days spent in Israel and
Palestine, the American President is today in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Even having read what Joe Biden wrote in the
Washington Post on July 9, to try to justify his voyage, I am one of those who
do not agree with the political opportunity of this trip. I see it as a move of
mere opportunism.
In the present context of
confrontation with Russia, the trip weakens those who use the arguments of
respect for international law, democracy and human rights. The Middle East is a
maze of problems with no solution in sight. A geopolitical labyrinth where,
among others, the United States is also lost. In the region, in addition to the
suffering in the countries visited and in occupied Palestine, we still have the
inhuman violence of the Syrian regime, with a fratricidal war that has dragged
on since 2011, the barbarity of the conflict in Yemen, the chaos in Lebanon,
the Iranian threat, the oppression of the Kurdish populations, fundamentalist
extremism and the deadly rivalries between Sunnis and Shiites. It is a question
of dealing with a powder keg that explodes according to the interests of the
different local or international players.
A visit that does not bring any kind
of response to the Palestinian question, to the obscurantism and cruelty of the
Saudi regime, or to the containment of the Iranian threat, can only be noted in
the negative. Biden was in Israel with the November mid-term elections in his
country in mind and to please a part of his domestic voter base. And he is in
Saudi Arabia to seek to increase oil production in order to contain the price
of a barrel. This is also an electoral concern: the cost of petrol, when it
comes time to fill up the tank, is a strong political argument in the USA. But
it will not be easy to convince the Saudis, who are already adding 400,000 barrels
a day more compared to what they were doing in February. Note, moreover, that
Saudi daily production is now equivalent to Russian, both occupying (almost ex
aequo) second place in the world.
Israel is not comparable to Saudi
Arabia. But the systematic violation of the rights of Palestinians is one of
the strongest arguments used by those who accuse the US of using a double-edged
sword in international relations. The Palestinian cause has for decades been
one of the most important thorns in the throat of those who speak of the need
to respect the international order and the rights of oppressed peoples. You
can't fight for that in the case of Ukraine and turn a blind eye when it comes
to the same in Palestine.
Saudi Arabia is a country of
contradictions. Modern in technology, medieval in the rights of women, of poor
immigrant workers or in the treatment of political opposition. The Crown
Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, personifies well these contradictions and the
brutality of the regime. He will go down in history for having had opposition
journalist Jamal Khashoggi murdered and hacked to pieces in 2018. Joe Biden had
said during his election campaign that this crime had turned Saudi Arabia into
a pariah state. Today, he will shake hands with the ringleader of the killers
and discuss cooperation and oil. The prince will look good in the photo, even
more arrogant than usual. The American president, on the other hand, will be
more vulnerable.
It is time to repeat that in
international politics not everything counts. And to underline once again that
believing in principles has a cost. The narrative has to become clearer.
Political leadership will only be credible if it is coherent. Spending time
thinking about the next elections, political manoeuvring and expedients that
vary according to the interests at stake may lead to the re-election of
presidents, prime ministers and secretaries-general, but it does not contribute
to solving the major problems. The current crises, in the Middle East, Eastern
Europe, Sri Lanka, Pakistan or Myanmar, in parts of Africa or Central America,
as well as in the field of climate change, nature conservation or food
insecurity and the fight against poverty, should teach us to be truthful,
responsible and courageous. In these times of great problems, this way of doing
politics is the greatest challenge.
(Automatic
translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de Notícias, the old
and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 15 July 2022)
Iran: the next day
Victor Angelo
In
2018, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh became known when Benjamin Netanyahu accused him of
being the scientist at the head of the Iranian nuclear programme. Fakhrizadeh
was murdered on the outskirts of Tehran a week ago. There are contradictory
accounts of the crime. What is certain is that the ambush was conducted by a
reasonable number of agents, at least ten of them, and in a professional way -
the wife, who was travelling with him, came out of it unharmed, she was not
part of the objective. I have no doubt that the ambush was carried out by special
forces, with perfectly trained executioners, who had at their disposal the
information, logistics and means necessary for a high-risk mission. It is
peaceful to conclude that it was not the work of the internal Iranian opposition.
It had all the characteristics of an operation planned, organised, and carried
out by a state hostile to Iran. And I cannot help but think of the regime's
three main enemies: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Donald Trump's United States.
Those
who know these things point in the direction of Israel. It is true that the
secret services of that country, in particular the legendary Mossad, have
already demonstrated an incomparably greater ability to penetrate Iranian
official circles than any other espionage service. One example of this ability,
with the trial of the indicted currently taking place in Antwerp, is the
following: it was Mossad that made known to the Belgian authorities the terrorist
attack the Iranian government was plotting in 2018 against the National Council
of Iranian Resistance in exile. The European intelligence services where the
plot was being prepared - the Belgians, the French, and the Austrians - had not
noticed anything.
Israel
can never admit the slightest hint of responsibility for murders of this kind.
Such an admission would open the door to prosecution in the International Court
of Justice in The Hague or in the jurisdiction of a United Nations member
country. International law is clear. An extraterritorial, summary, and
arbitrary execution, promoted by a State outside a situation of armed conflict is
a crime which violates international human rights law, the 1949 Geneva
Conventions and the 1977 Additional Protocols. Moreover, the United Nations
Charter expressly prohibits the extraterritorial use of force in times of
peace.
For
all these reasons, the paternity of what has now happened to Fakhrizadeh will
remain unknown for the time being. We will have to be contented with the
suspicions.
The
assassination has shown that the Iranian system of internal espionage and counterespionage,
which terrifies the population, has very serious flaws. The powerful Ministry
of Intelligence is more concerned with the repression of the growing internal
opposition than it is prepared to identify the most sophisticated threats from
outside. This is not new. In early July, for example, the security services were
unable to prevent an explosion at the Natanz nuclear power plant, nor were they
able to avert the sabotage of missile-making programmes. All these actions were
handled by a foreign country.
A
fundamental issue is to try to understand the central motive for the
assassination. What seems more obvious, which would be to strike a major blow
capable of further delaying the regime's nuclear programme, makes no sense. The
country already has several teams of scientists capable of enriching uranium.
The attack on Natanz and the sabotage have already delayed the plans. The real
reason must be different.
If
we look upstream, we will see that the Israeli government is on the brink of
collapse and that Netanyahu will need convincing campaign arguments again. The
presumption of a strong hand against the ayatollahs will certainly bring a good
number of votes. Looking further ahead, we see that the new Biden
administration is in favour of reopening a negotiating process with Tehran.
This would be more difficult if the clerics responded to what happened to
Fakhrizadeh in a violent manner. The old leaders of Iran are fanatical and
backward. But they are astute in international politics. They must look at the
assassination as an attempt at political provocation. And they know that
waiting patiently for Joe Biden to take office may be the best response to the
challenge they were given days ago.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
In addition to his domestic claims, President Trump wants to be seen by the American voters as an international statesman. That’s why he is organising all kinds of diplomatic deals. It was the economic deal between Serbia and Kosovo, signed a few days ago. It does not address the delicate political dispute between the two sides, but it was a good photo opportunity. Interestingly, the President of Serbia seemed surprised by some of the terms of the deal, as they were mentioned by Donald Trump. He did not recognise some of the aspects the US President was referring to. But the big game is around the Israeli situation. The President knows that is a big prize, with a significant impact in important American circles. Therefore, he convinced the United Arab Emirates to sign some kind of “peace” commitment with Israel. And today, it was the turn of Bahrain. President Trump will try to get more Arab states to follow suit. That will be big, as he sees it, from the electoral perspective. My understanding is that his people, starting with Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, are now talking to Oman and Qatar to join the bandwagon. That will give Donald Trump and his supporters a lot of ammunition for the rest of the electoral campaign. As I keep saying, it would be a mistake to consider the election won by Joe Biden. Trump will keep pulling new rabbits out of his hat.
