The new European leadership team

On international affairs, the new European leadership team will have to deal with an interesting deck of cards. I mean the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the US Donald Trump, the very strategic Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, the unreliable Boris Johnson in the UK, just to mention some of them. I could add Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu in Israel, if he survives the next round of elections, Nicolás Maduro, and so on. That is a most unique scenario that is waiting for them. The international scene shows all the signs of a perfect storm. And I am not mentioning the tricky situation around Iran, a major epicentre of a potential catastrophe. 

On the domestic front, within the EU space, they will be confronting Matteo Salvini, the strong man in Italy, Viktor Orbán and his neighbours in the Czech Republic and Poland, political instability in Belgium, Spain and Romania, as well as lots of pressure to move faster in areas that divide the European nations, such as the common defence, the climate emergency, the Brexit negotiations, and the pivot to Africa.

This is a most challenging environment. It requires a very strong and united leadership team. Not easy, not easy at all for a team that comes to power almost by chance. Let’s keep watching how strong and determined the new team is.

UN on Israel´s settlements

Today the UN Secretary-general expressed his concerns regarding the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied territories. And he called for a freeze of the expansion. There is nothing very new here, but it is important it has been said by the top UN official.

The Prime Minister of Israel did not like Ban Ki-moon´s words. I can understand that. What I cannot accept is Benjamin Netanyahu´s official written statement accusing the SG of “encouraging terrorism”.  

Obama said that Netanyahu is wrong. Very correct, indeed!

Both on the internal and external fronts, President Obama has regained the initiative. Today´s comments in support of the nuclear deal with Iran are a clear demonstration of leadership. Including his remarks about Prime Minister Netanyahu´s campaign against the accord. In a diplomatic manner the US President did acknowledge Netanyahu´s strong position but concluded by saying very clearly that the Prime Minister “is wrong”.

And indeed, he is stubbornly wrong. And he knows it, I suspect. He keeps however repeating what he has been saying about the Iran agreement because he knows that internally, in Israel, that gives him a chance to score points. As it is well known, all statements about external politics are above all for domestic political gain. 

Sad news from the Middle East

The electoral victory of Israel´s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is another piece of bad news for the Middle East. It adds fuel to the existing many crises. The EU and the international community have lost leverage in the region. Tony Blair´s mediation job has been a disaster. The new EU envoy, the Italian diplomat Fernando Gentilini, will have almost no room for manoeuvre. His appointment serves the High Representative’s personal agenda of appointing people loyal to her but brings no political leverage and no hope. In many ways, it is a silent recognition that there is very little the EU can do in the region. I do not see Netanyahu losing any moment of his time talking to the envoy. I actually do not see anyone at this stage able to establish any kind of bridge in the region.

Striking ISIS is a good decision

President Obama´s decision to strike ISIS extremists in Northern Iraq should be supported by a large number of opinion-makers. It is time to say no to that type of medieval savagery as the one implemented by these fanatics.

This is a good point for the current administration in Washington at a time when the same administration has been losing credibility because of their vacillating position regarding Israel´s violations of international law and the lunacy of Hamas´s political decisions.

Kerry is not welcome in today´s Israel

It is quite clear the Obama Administration is not welcome in Netanyahu´s Israel. With the current crisis having last for more than a week, and the very serious loss of civilian lives, it would have been appropriate to send John Kerry back to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Furthermore, that trip would bring some credits back to the Americans, within the Arab world. But Washington knows this move would meet with Netanyahu´s opposition. Therefore, the Administration remains silent. Notwithstanding the noise coming from the fighter jets, the rockets, the human suffering and the death of many innocent civilians. 

Israel and Palestine will be at it for a long time

The situation in Israel and Gaza is again at its worst. It reminds us, as it does so often, that there is no real mechanism to peacefully sort out major complex crises, if one or both sides believe that the only option that is left to them is through war. It is also a sharp and dramatic reminder of the ambivalence of the big powers. In this case, the US has shown that they cannot, for domestic political reasons, be part and judge of a conflict. You are either one or the other. And you assume it clearly.

I do not write often about this part of the world for a very simple reason. I do not see a solution to the conflict. This is one those violent disputes that will stay with us for another generation or two. In the meantime, people suffer and lives are just wasted. 

Israel and Palestine must talk about peace

Israel leadership is reacting the wrong way to the Palestinian reconciliation. Prime Minister Netanyahu should be happy that Hamas is now getting a bit more into the main stream. And he should re-engage the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on peace matters.

Peace talks, one should be reminded, are never held with your friends. They sit around the table people that have been at one another´s throats for quite some time. They take place between enemies. They are often very difficult to accept as the other side has been killing our own people. But there is no other way to sort out a conflict but by talking to our foes. In Middle East, in Northern Ireland, in South Sudan, all over the place.

Therefore the Palestinian move towards their own reconciliation is no acceptable excuse to stop the peace process. It can, however, be used as pretext to halt a move that in any case was not genuine. Is it the case?

Kerry and Netanyahu

The Israeli government has no love lost for John Kerry. Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are deeply irritated by Kerry´s continued efforts to bring peace to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. They let that displeasure be known through informal channels. When they meet the US Secretary of State they seem to be willing to play the diplomatic game. But they are not. And that´s why they have cancelled the release of the last batch of Palestinian prisoners that should have found their freedom days ago. More. They have decided to build extra settlements -700 new homes – in occupied land in the East Jerusalem area.

Israel top leaders believe they can only count on their own means to protect their country. They see the emergence of a Palestinian State as a serious threat to their own security. They prefer the current status quo. But the present arrangement has no real future. It is a major source of conflict a very serious violation of basic principles of international law. Sooner or later, both sides will have to find a more accommodating solution. The ball, however, is more on the Israeli camp than on the other side. This is a debate the Israelis should have among themselves. 

An excellent agreement with Iran

The agreement Iran and the P5 plus Germany reached and committed to is a very positive development in matters of international security. It can also have a very constructive impact in the stabilisation of the Middle East. Iran is indeed an important player in the region. The move towards cooperation with the West and the key representatives of the international community can open the doors for other agreements.

And the next one should be on Syria. It is now rime to engage on the solution of that tragedy as deeply as these countries have engaged on finding o modus vivendi with Iran.

Now a side comment. Israel has called the agreement with Iran “an historic mistake”. The mistake is however elsewhere. The Likud leadership, and especially Prime Minister Netanyahu, need to realise that those who signed the accord with Tehran are not simple minded fellows. They know very well what is going on in Iran and in the region. They know where their interests lie. If they have signed that means very clearly the step is in the right direction. No doubt, gentlemen! 

Again on Israel and its neighbours

Following my post of yesterday about Israel and Iran, I got call this afternoon from a friend who is also very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu. The caller had just arrived from Israel. And I could notice two things: the country´s leadership is very unhappy with the way the Obama team is looking at Iran´s nuclear issue; they can´t understand why people in Washington are so eager to strike a deal with the Iranians; and then, the second point concerns Israel´s believe they will be able to take military action against the nuclear facilities in Iran and get the tacit but firm approval of many in the Middle East, including the Saudis. This is actually encouraging the hard liners in Jerusalem to go for the bombing.

All this adds instability and unpredictability to a region that is already in deep turmoil. It´s not good at all!

Israel and Iran

It would be a mistake to underestimate Israel´s strategic interests as we get closer to the next round of negotiations with Iran.

The country´s leaders see Iran as a major threat.

They will try everything – including in the Capitol Hill in Washington – to make sure that the pressure on Tehran is not eased out. And in their tricks box, there is the menace of unilateral military action against the nuclear installations in Iran. The public mentioning by the Israelis of such a possibility is in itself a way of convincing Washington that an agreement with Iran is only good if it is a lose-win accord.

 And that is not possible, as I see it, because no leader in Tehran will accept an agreement that looks like a defeat. 

Kerry's efforts

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has spent most of his time, during the last two weeks or so, trying to resuscitate the “final status negotiations” –that’s the official expression to name the talks between Israel and Palestine on border issues, security arrangements, and the fate of the Palestinian refugees.

Today it seems that his efforts are bearing fruit. We might see both countries back at the negotiating table, after five years of interruption and stalemate, next week. This is great news. I think it is important to recognize Kerry’s efforts.

And encourage him – and above all, President Obama – to continue along the same line, notwithstanding every bit of resistance Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to raise. At the end of the day, the key to very complex situation that defines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as much in Washington as it is in the region.