German politics

Martin Schulz spent many years in Brussels first as Member of European Parliament and in the end, as its President (Speaker). A few weeks ago, he returned to his native Germany and took the leadership of his party, the SPD (Social Democrat). He is now campaigning throughout the country, with the forthcoming legislative elections in mind. The elections will take place at the end of September. That´s a long way down the line. An eternity, in political terms, particularly now, that everything goes fast and can change even faster. He is competing against Angela Merkel, who will be fighting for a fourth term as leader of Germany. That´s a formidable challenge. But Schulz is doing well. He is seen as potential winner. That´s good, in politics.

In any case, we are fortunate to have Merkel and Schulz as the key competitors in Germany. They are both balanced leaders and people without fear. They are also resolutely pro-Europeans. Their presence in the front lines is good news for the EU.

Being positive on Europe Day

Every 9 May, the EU celebrates Europe Day.

This year we might conclude there isn´t much to be happy about. Martin Schulz, the EU Parliament boss, in an interview to a Portuguese daily newspaper, compared Europe to a bicycle with “flat tyres”. Basically, it would mean it has to keep moving but there is no air in the rubbers, the wheels can´t move properly.

I think we should be a bit more positive nonetheless. At least today.

The EU is still one of the most attractive places to be in the world. For its quality of life and for its standards of living. Also, because it is a space of liberties – yes, plural – and rule of law, as well as a continent of peace and security. It is still pretty predictable in terms of one´s human rights. And, in international relations, it is a major actor in the fields of development and humanitarian assistance.

These are some remarkable dimensions that one should emphasise on this day.

The 2016 Charlemagne Prize

The Charlemagne Prize is an annual award that recognises outstanding efforts in favour of a stronger EU. This year´s winner is a special one for a few reasons. He is not a European citizen. Furthermore, he is not directly involved with European politics and actually he does not want to be seen as too close to just one region of the world. And he is above all a religious leader, known as Pope Francis.

But he is also a moral beacon to many. And a candid speaker about the plight of immigrants. He has strongly advised the EU leaders to be more responsive to the massive arrivals of refugees and immigrants. He himself has been to reception centres in Italy and Greece as a way of calling the politicians attention to the predicament of those who are stuck out there.

All this is highly valuable. However, the issue remains a political one. The Pope´s moral appeals have no real impact on politicians that see the issue has core to their national interests and also for their own survival as government leaders. The immigration and refugee matters are essentially political. They are one of the most definitive challenges to the unity of Europe. They call for political vision, for clarity about the overall goal, what really matters for the future of Europe, the options, and the consequences of each choice, all of this far beyond the remit of a prize, even one as important as the Charlemagne award.

It´s their fault, isn´t it?

It´s a bit strange to see people who have been at the core of the EU as leaders for many years to come out now and criticise the way Europe is moving. Or is it a new type of self-criticism and I am not getting it?

Germany is the power in the EU machinery

In all institutions it is important to analyse who are the power brokers, the people of real influence, or said differently, the ones that are at the centre of the most critical decisions and decisively influence the formal leaders ‘choices. In the case of the EU in Brussels, out of the five true powerful men –all five are men – three are German nationals. Guess who?

Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Juncker, yes, for the EU Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker might not be a new face in the EU block. But he is an experienced and safe pair of hands. And a serious man. As leader of the most voted EU political family he should be the next President of the European Commission. He needs the support of the heads of State and government, as he also requires the votes of the socialist group. That should be possible. The Socialists could see their leader, Martin Schulz, also a very able man even if not as experience as Juncker, take a key position in the Commission as compensation. Or reward him by keeping him as President of the European Parliament, a job he has done well.

Not to appoint Juncker would give the EU voters another reason to lose faith in the European elections.

There is, of course, the problem called David Cameron. He seems to have said that Juncker´s appointment would force him to move the date of the British referendum on Europe forward, to an earlier date. And he added that the British would vote then against the EU. Maybe. But in any case, the risk is high. Sooner or later, if there is a vote in the UK and in view of the current atmosphere, the chances of a negative vote are pretty high. That would be above all a British problem.  Europe would suffer a blow but the UK would receive the full impact of the wave.

UK´s position is important but it is not a reason to stop the process of appointing the EU head forward. 

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.

Schulz and Juncker, the twin brothers

 As it gets closer to the EU parliamentary elections it is also clearer that the two main candidates for the top job of Commission President are just the opposite face of the same coin. There is no major difference, in terms of EU policies and choices, between Martin Schulz, from Germany and leader of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, meaning the social-democrat head, and Jean-Claude Juncker, from Luxembourg and the front name for the European People´s Party, the centre-right. Therefore, the question is more about personalities than anything else. Some people would find Schulz more attractive, they would say he might be more progressive, whatever that means in the case of these two men, others would say that Juncker has more experience. Between the two, it is obvious that Juncker is the one that has been around longer, that knows more when it comes to the business of government and also has been tested as the leader, for a very long period, of the finance ministers´ Eurogroup. That makes him a better candidate. But politics is a very complex field and competence is not always a criteria of success.