Iran and the EU approach

Today, unexpectedly, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to Brussels. He met the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the UK, and briefly, the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy. The matter was Iran.

The US Administration has placed Iran at the top of its international agenda, next to two other critical themes: the trade talks with China and the internal situation in Venezuela. The American leadership is clearly betting on isolating Iran as a way of weakening the regime. Such policy is above all inspired by advice coming from Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both countries want Iran down.

This is certainly a very risky policy.

The alleged sabotage of four oil tankers in the very sensitive area around the Strait of Hormuz, which was big headlines today, is another very serious development in a very explosive environment. It is unclear what really happened to the ships and who was behind the actions, whatever actions they could have been. To draw any conclusion without more information would be extremely foolish. If there was indeed a big issue with those tankers, if an attack took place, an international commission on enquiry should be mandated to assess the facts. I hope the Europeans told something like that to Pompeo. I expressed interest in being part of the investigation.

I understand there was little common ground today between the visiting Secretary and the EU Ministers. That’s is encouraging. The Europeans must show they have their own way of looking at Iran and the Middle East, for that matter. They appreciate the alliance with the US but, at the same time, they must assert their independent views. Particularly when the gravity of the situation does not allow any misguided approach. As it does not tolerate a partisan policy, choosing the Saudi or the Israel side when the region needs a cool and balanced line to be followed by the Europeans.

British out of the EU diplomatic service

As their country leaves, the UK nationals that are head of EU delegations in different parts of the world will be replaced soon. The selection of the new ambassadors that will take over is now ready to be approved by Federica Mogherini, the EU diplomatic boss. Names should be known soon, and accreditation processes initiated. EU diplomacy can’t wait, it must keep moving on.

This another dimension of the Brexit process. It’s not very well known, but it will happen, and it will lead to the departure from the European External Action Service of some very competent staff. They are British passport holders and therefore cannot represent the EU.

The fact of the matter is that Britain is already seen as out of the EU, when it comes to many of these procedural matters. Life goes on, as they say. Unfortunately, without the UK. But it will go on.

Trump and the EU´s position

At this early stage, the leaders of the EU institutions, especially the President of the European Commission and the head of the European External Action Service (EEAS), should be very prudent and diplomatic when referring to Donald Trump´s election win.

They for sure have their own personal opinions about the incoming President. That´s fine. They also have some serious apprehensions about the future of the US relations with the EU. That´s fine as well.

But at this time of the game, it pays to be extremely formal, diplomatic and patient. Diplomacy helps to smooth things out, as it often does between countries that share interests. And patience is fundamental to keep a strong negotiating position.

Progress on Syria and Libya: it should be possible

The efforts being led these days by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov regarding Libya and Syria should be recognised. They are spending a good amount of time in Vienna and around. And they have also been wise in terms of keeping the UN on board and at the centre of the processes. If they keep this kind of engagement we should be able to see some progress. Actually, when it comes to Libya, it is now obvious that things have started to move in the right direction. The EU should come out clearly in support of these efforts. That should be done as a single voice. Through the EU High Representative, if possible.

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage. 

Supporting the Vienna process on Syria

A week ago, I criticised the conveners of the Vienna meeting on Syria for not inviting the UN and EU. Now, after today´s new round of discussions in Vienna, I should commend the US and Russia for bringing to the room not only the UN and the EU, but also the other countries that can have an impact on the solution of the long lasting civil war. It was particularly important to have Iran in the conversation.

This basically means that for the first time, after so many years of destruction and human pain, there is a bit of hope for the Syrians. The road ahead is still very difficult. But at least the diplomacy is now seriously trying to initiate a peace process.

The next step is to find a way of bringing in the Syrian representatives themselves. I am confident that it should be possible, if all those who met in Vienna today do their honest part of the bargain.

It is also critically important to intensify the destruction of the Islamic State leadership and power structures. For that to happen, one has to be very frank and have the courage to denounce any double game that might occur in the future. We cannot accept a country sits in Vienna and talks about the future of a peaceful Syria and, at the same time, keeps somehow supporting the terrorists.

Syria: calling for a renewed diplomatic effort

John Kerry, the US State Secretary, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister met today in Vienna with their counterparts from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The meeting was about the Syrian conflict and how to get it resolved, after almost five years of civil war and unimaginable suffering.

These four people represent countries that can play an important role in bringing peace back to Syria. Their countries are not the only ones that matter but in many ways they play a major role in the region and can for sure markedly influence the course of events. It is therefore encouraging to see them around the same table. And they should continue the consultations, even if their interests are very distinct, as it is time to see an end to the Syrian tragedy.

I have also noted that the EU was not part of the discussion. It should. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, has to claim a seat around this table. The EU´s potential role both during the peace negotiations and the reconstruction of Syria cannot be ignored.

The UN has also been side-lined. The Special Envoy of the Secretary-General, Staffan de Mistura, has disappeared from the radar. That needs to be changed immediately. The UN´s participation is critical for the credibility of the Secretary-General and to augment the legitimacy of the current efforts. Here, as in the case of the EU, there is a need to be strong and call for recognition.

Germany is the power in the EU machinery

In all institutions it is important to analyse who are the power brokers, the people of real influence, or said differently, the ones that are at the centre of the most critical decisions and decisively influence the formal leaders ‘choices. In the case of the EU in Brussels, out of the five true powerful men –all five are men – three are German nationals. Guess who?

Sad news from the Middle East

The electoral victory of Israel´s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is another piece of bad news for the Middle East. It adds fuel to the existing many crises. The EU and the international community have lost leverage in the region. Tony Blair´s mediation job has been a disaster. The new EU envoy, the Italian diplomat Fernando Gentilini, will have almost no room for manoeuvre. His appointment serves the High Representative’s personal agenda of appointing people loyal to her but brings no political leverage and no hope. In many ways, it is a silent recognition that there is very little the EU can do in the region. I do not see Netanyahu losing any moment of his time talking to the envoy. I actually do not see anyone at this stage able to establish any kind of bridge in the region.

Juncker´s Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker came out as a strong leader, when he announced the Commisssion of the EU that he wants to put together. The choice of the first Vice-President, Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, is a very courageous one. Juncker still recognises the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini of Italy, as a Vice-President, but places the former Dutch Foreign Minister as his right hand. Furthermore, Mogherini has agreed to move out of the EEAS building and joining Juncker at the Berlaymont building. The proximity brings greater coherence, enhances team work and sends the signal that Juncker is the boss.

In addition, the letter sent to each Commissioner by the incoming President states clearly what he expects from each one of them. It also indicates the clusters they belong to and who will be leading each one of those thematic areas. This is modern way of going governance. It is also a message about coherence, cohesiveness and lines of responsibility.

Now, the next step is in the European Parliament. Juncker might face some opposition from the Socialist group. They consider their candidates were not given enough authority in the line-up presented today. It is true. But it is also true that most of the strongest candidates were nominated by Conservative governments that are in power throughout Europe.