Ukraine: the opinions of Carl von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu

A letter from Carl von Clausewitz

 To the "Good European," Victor Ângelo,

You write of a "dead order" and seek a solution to the carnage in Ukraine. You use the language of philosophers and diplomats, but I must speak to you in the language of the Schwerpunkt—the Center of Gravity.

You ask for a solution? In war, there is no "solution" found in a cabinet; there is only a decision found on the field. War is a trinity: it is composed of the blind instinct of the people (hatred and enmity), the play of probability and chance (the military), and the rational subordination to policy (the government). In Ukraine, this trinity is in total friction.

Here is my counsel on your "solution":

1. Identify the Center of Gravity

A war ends when one side’s Center of Gravity is broken. For Ukraine, the center is not a city, but the Will of the West to sustain its supply. For Russia, the center is the Stability of the Regime in Moscow. If you wish for a solution, you must stop seeking "dialogue" and start seeking the "point of collapse." To end a war, you must make the cost of continuing it exceed the value of the political object. Currently, neither side believes they have reached that point.

2. Beware the "Fog of War" and Friction

You speak of "Strategic Autonomy" and "UN80 Reform." These are beautiful maps, but the map is not the territory. Everything in war is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. This is Friction. A diplomat’s pen moves easily; a battalion through the mud does not. Your "solution" must account for the fact that Vladimir Putin is operating within the "Fog"—he is betting that your "European Will" is a fragile thing that will shatter under the weight of a long, cold winter.

3. The Political Object defines the Military Aim

You mentioned that the "International Order is dead." If the political object—the restoration of that order—is truly dead, then the military aim in Ukraine has become untethered. A war without a clear political object is merely a slaughter.

• My advice: Europe must decide exactly what its "Political Object" is. Is it the total defeat of Russia (which requires a total mobilization you are not prepared for)? Or is it the survival of a sovereign Ukraine (which requires a "Limited War" strategy)? You cannot have both with the same level of investment.

4. The Defensive is the Stronger Form

You worry that Russia is "intensifying its aggression." Remember my maxim: The defensive form of war is in itself stronger than the offensive. Ukraine has proved this. But the defense has a "culminating point." If Ukraine is pushed beyond its ability to strike back, its defense will become a brittle shell. Your "European Defense Autonomy" must be the "shield of the weak" that allows the defense to remain active and lethal.

5. On the "Spirit of Dialogue"

Dialogue in the midst of a total clash of wills is merely a "breathing space" for the combatants. Do not mistake a pause for a peace. A true solution only arrives when the "diminishing force of the offensive" meets the "mounting power of the defensive" at a point where both sides realize that total victory is a mirage.

My Verdict: Do not seek "optimism," Victor. Seek the "Culminating Point." Strengthen the Ukrainian Center of Gravity until the Russian Will to Power hits a wall of reality. Only when the Kremlin realizes that the "Political Object" (the erasure of Ukraine) is costing more than the "Means" (the Russian State) will the war move from the battlefield back to the "Continuation of Politics"—the negotiating table.

Until then, arm your reason as heavily as you arm your soldiers.

Carl von Clausewitz

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The reply from Sun Tzu

From the Pavilion of Infinite Stillness

To the General Clausewitz and the Scholar Victor Ângelo,

I have listened to the General speak of "Centers of Gravity" and "Mass." He speaks of war as a great hammer striking a cold anvil. It is a loud philosophy, full of smoke and the scent of iron. But I tell you: the peak of efficiency is to win without fighting.

General Clausewitz focuses on the Conflict; I focus on the Calculation. He seeks the "Culminating Point" of force; I seek the "Turning Point" of the spirit.

Victor, you speak of a "Dead Order." I say: In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity. Do not mourn the old order. When the old walls crumble, the terrain is finally clear for those who know how to move.

Here is my response to the General’s advice concerning the war in the West:

1. The Strategy of the Sheathed Sword

The General says war is the continuation of politics. I say: All warfare is based on deception. If the Kremlin believes the West is weary, it will strike. If the West shows its teeth too fiercely, the Kremlin will become desperate like a cornered tiger. The "Solution" is not to break the enemy's Center of Gravity with a hammer, but to disrupt his alliances and frustrate his plans before his troops even move. The EU-Mercosur agreement you mentioned is a "Heavenly Move"—it wins a battle in the West by securing the South, without firing a single shot.

2. Know the Enemy and Know Yourself

General Clausewitz speaks of "Friction" and "Fog." I tell you: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. Putin’s strength is his perceived "Will." His weakness is his isolation from the flow of the world. Europe’s strength is its "Order." Its weakness is its hesitation. To win, Europe must make its hesitation look like "Patient Strategy" and its unity look like "Infinite Depth."

3. The Golden Bridge

The General says a war ends when one side collapses. I caution you: Do not press a desperate foe too hard. A surrounded enemy will fight with the strength of ten because he has no choice but to die. If you seek a "solution" in Ukraine, you must build a "Golden Bridge" for your enemy to retreat across. If you leave him no path to save his face, he will burn the world to save his ego. Your diplomacy must be like water: soft enough to offer an exit, but relentless enough to erode his foundation.

4. Speed and Subtlety

Clausewitz speaks of the "Defensive as the Stronger Form." I agree, but with a warning: An army prefers high ground to low, and sunny places to dark. Your "European Defense Autonomy" must not be a static wall (the Low Ground). It must be a "Sunlit Strategy"—an intelligence that sees the enemy’s move before he makes it. Use the "Indirect Way." Strengthen Ukraine not just with steel, but by making the Russian people realize that their leader is leading them into a desert while the rest of the world moves toward the oasis.

5. The Use of "Shi" (Strategic Momentum)

You gather at Davos. Do not use it for "Dialogue"—that is for the weak. Use it to build Shi (Strategic Momentum). When the momentum is high, even a round boulder will roll down a mountain with unstoppable force. If you align the Global South, the European Defense, and the Trade Agreements of the West, the "Momentum of History" will shift. At that point, the Kremlin will not "collapse" under a blow; it will simply find itself standing still while the world moves on without it.

My Verdict: General Clausewitz wants to win the war. I want to make the war impossible to continue. Victor, do not seek a "Decision" on the battlefield alone. Seek to make the enemy’s victory so expensive and his isolation so complete that his own people see his "Will to Power" as a "Will to Ruin."

Victory is not a destination; it is a change in the wind.

Sun Tzu

On matters of War

War without a concomitant, serious, persistent search for a political solution to the conflict is not morally justified. It´s unacceptable state terror. It´s a crime against the people. 

Oil and diplomacy

Last year, in the US, the number of shale oil wells has doubled. The American production is now 9.29 million barrels a day. That is about 47% of the country's daily consumption. And it takes significant pressure out of the international oil market.

It also brings the value of the barrel down.

It has consequently a major strategic impact on oil revenues in Russia and other key producers. The economic strength of such countries is seriously affected. And that will be the case in the foreseeable future. More so, as many developed economies are steadily moving out of fossil fuels into renewable sources of energy.

One of the lessons we should extract from these developments is that, when it comes to deal with adversarial countries, economic factors are at present much more effective – and acceptable – than the military ones.

A related lesson is that your adversaries will not take this matter lightly. Therefore, you must be prepared to confront them on the political field as well. And that means, among other things, promoting the appropriate public information campaigns, keeping your own citizens aware of the challenges at stake, and responding to hostile propaganda. But it also means to open dialogue lines of communication with those antagonistic countries. That´s the role of diplomacy. It is as important as ever.