Snow is not good for national security

In Brussels this afternoon there was a bit of snow again. Just enough powder to make a mess out of the road traffic. People become over cautious and drive at snail pace. That does not prevent many accidents from happening. But it makes moving around a nightmare. My daughter was driving into Brussels from the Mons area, 80 km away, after a long day of work, and it took her close to three hours to reach home.

The impact of all this on me: I spent more time doing baby-sitting-cum-dog-sitting than preparing for my forthcoming seminar on national security in the EU countries. And then I came to the conclusion that a few flakes of snow are a serious threat for the development of national security matters…

Let the Nigerians do the job

The Islamist group called "Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa", also known as Ansaru, is a terrorist organisation aligned with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It operates in the Northern part of Nigeria, as a dissident fraction of the better known network of terrorists Boko Haram. They have specialised in the kidnapping of Western nationals working in the country.

Yesterday they executed seven hostages that they had taken recently. The circumstances of these killings remain unclear. But I suspect that the Ansaru men might have felt threatened by an impending military operation against them, most likely involving some form of cooperation between the armed forces of Nigeria and a Western secret service.  If that was the case it would mean that someone in the know might have warned the terrorists. A Western “muscled presence” in those corners of the country is very conspicuous.

Lessons need to be drawn then. Northern Nigeria is not a safe place, neither for white civilians nor for Western services. When it comes to hostages, the job should be done by the Nigerian Special Forces and intelligence officers. They can go far and wide, if the political green light comes from Abuja. 

On a Saturday evening...

I left my home country almost 35 years ago. Since then, I have lived in about 10 different countries, for professional reasons.

Every time I changed I felt like someone initiating a new life opportunity. It was, in many ways, a feat of magic that kept me alert and open-minded. It also helped me to appreciate the many challenges people face in many corners of the world. And allowed me to compare situations and give them their relative weight. But it also taught me that the only good answer to a major challenge is enlightened resoluteness. 

Women's rights

On this International Women’s Day one should recall that the percentage of women in leadership positions is still very low, even in most of the European countries. Company boards, police and defence top echelons, media and many other senior jobs continue to be male dominated. But nowhere that is truer than in the political sphere. Most of political parties give little space to women leaders. That’s why I am a strong advocate of the quota system, imposing an acceptable minimum level of women to occupy effective decision-making positions.

Interestingly, many political leaders who like to see themselves as examples of progressive politics oppose the quota system. They cannot understand that the change has many avenues and one of them is through legal means. They also fail to grasp that true equality requires a much stronger participation of women in active politics. Without proper representation women will never be able to fully fight for their rights and for the right policies. 

European dreams

The leaders of the Visegrad Group – Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – met yesterday in Warsaw with President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel to discuss defence matters. The four countries want to have a joint battle group of 3,000 soldiers in about three years’ time. This is a good move, particularly if one takes into account that the military cooperation between Slovakia and Hungary requires a confidence boost. It has indeed known better days.

The leaders also talked about today’s Europe. And, to the surprise of some of us, they came to the conclusion that the three instruments that will “construct” the EU are: 1) the economic and monetary union; 2) the competitiveness of the European economies; and 3) the reinforcement of Europe’s defence capabilities.

Well…First, the economic and monetary union seems to be a project for only part of the current members. I do not see the British, the Danes or the Swedes to be willing, one day, to join the Euro. The competitiveness issue is a dream that is killed every day, when one compares the economies of Northern Europe with Spain, Italy or Portugal – forget about Greece! And the European defence capabilities have a very troubled future in front of them. To insist in European common defence when military budgets are on the decline slope is misleading. The European defence will continue to be based on NATO’s role and on the commitment of the US towards Europe. The little resources still available within the European countries’ defence institutions should be used to strengthen the European contribution to NATO’s mandate. 

Leadership is also about a good lunch

When there is a small assembly around a table and a microphone in front of each seat, there is always someone among the big boys that plays the crazy guy, either by rattling on about this and that, in a way that nobody follows or cares about, or then by saying some odd thing that leaves everybody else open-mouthed.

Recently, in a high level meeting between different chiefs of armed forces, one of them, who had remained silent throughout the morning – it is true his country is not really in a position to have a position – , asked for the floor, grasped the microphone, smiled and made a very important statement: I am hungry!

Many in the speechless audience reacted the same way: they checked the time. It was ten to one! The general could be a peculiar fellow, indeed. But he knew the value of a good lunch! 

Strategic accidents

Just travelled back from a meeting that had strategic issues at the centre of the debate. And I could see that very often strategy design is just based on coincidences, on facts that happen at the same time and are taken as indications of the way to follow. Strange! I ended up by calling that “strategizing by accident”.

And also came to the conclusion that in politics that’s often the case. You “build a strategy” on facts that are happening and that you never thought of. Politicians just ride the wave and call that “strategy”.  

On elites

I spent the evening in a discussion about elites. Elites are necessary, but only if they can accept to be challenged and are not afraid of people who are and think differently.

The discussion took place in a very pretty small village next to Lake Leman in between Geneva and Lausanne. The surroundings, I hope, made some of my strong positions seem a little bit softer...

[You see, I am like all those leaders that feel a deep need to be loved...Wrong approach...]

Portugal on the street

Large crowds marched today in the key cities and towns of Portugal against the austerity measures the government is implementing. The key feature of these manifestations was their peaceful nature. People have shown, once more, that they can be on the streets and behave responsibly.

Many of the protesters could be defined as middle class families that are going through a process of impoverishment. For many of them and for many years their living standards were based on a fiction: that the country could afford a level of public expenditures that was well beyond the means of the economy. With the international financial crisis this fiction could no longer be sustained. The state could no longer borrow in the international markets at low rates of interest. To be able to finance the public sector and adjust spending to the real possibilities of the economy over a short period of time, the state had to look for funds coming from the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission. These monies came with strings attached, as expected. And that hurts. It hurts even further because the government has realised – but cannot explain it properly and clearly, for reasons that are beyond my understanding – that the long term sustainability of public expenditures calls for further cuts, particularly if one takes into account the fragility of the economy and the very low rate of productive investment that has been recorded so far.

In a country where the state was the true engine of the economy – unfortunately the private sector had not been able during the last two decades to take off and expand; it remained too dependent of state projects and orders and largely linked to political patronage – if public expenditure goes significantly down most of the economy tends to collapse.

The point is to get as many investments from outside as possible. My hope is that today’s popular civism be perceived by those potentially interested in investing in Portugal as an encouragement to do so. 

Honduras: the homicide country

 I just noticed, after speaking at length over Skype with a former senior colleague who is now retired and decided to live in Honduras, that the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ranks that Central America nation as number one in the world in terms of its Homicide Rate.  Indeed, Honduras averaged 91.6 murders per 100,000 people in 2011. To put this number into perspective, the United States has a rate of 4.8 murders per 100,000 and the UK’s rate is 1.2.

All of sudden, I got worried for my friend.