Hollande low cost

The French President, François Hollande, has now an approval rating of 19%. This is by far the lowest rate ever. It is even worse than it looks if one takes into account that he is quite new in the job and therefore cannot pretend people are tired of him. People are just disappointed. They had expected a new style of governance, combining sensitivity and reform, and got indecision instead. In times of crisis, vacillation is the worst characteristic a leader can harbour. The voters want clarity, a well-defined sense of direction, resoluteness, and ability to communicate and mobilise. You might not be 100% sure of the best way to sort out the crisis, but you have to be perceived as being fully in control.

If not, you get 19% today and 10% tomorrow. Political devaluation goes as fast as currency devaluation in a crisis country. 

Spying on me is good for my ego

With all this spying that is going on, all over, one should feel important, because so many services are interested in what one is doing and saying.  

Egypt should not repeat the Algerian crisis

Egypt’s situation is in serious risk of paralysing the little that is still working in the country. And it is also moving fast towards a dead end. It is time to realise that a repetition of the Algeria’s crisis of the early nineties is now becoming a real possibility. One should remember the very high costs that Algerian crisis brought in, during so many years, both in terms of human suffering and underdevelopment.  The Egyptian leadership has to be able to rise to the very dramatic challenge that the country faces, be able to talk sense to the nation and propose a way forward that is as inclusive as possible.

If that is not the case, Egypt will move closer to violent unrest. 

Seville

Week end in Seville, Spain. Lots of young people from different corners of Northern Europe and from Japan and China. The city might have fewer tourists this year but is still a major international attraction. And it’s worth the visit. Ever. 

Bolivia and the EU

Just after the incident with President Morales ‘ flight, at the beginning of the week, I wrote in my Portuguese blog “Vistas Largas” that the EU countries involved  - France, Portugal, Spain and Austria – had made a serious mistake. They should not have prevented the Bolivian President’s plane from flying over their air space and the Austrian Police should not have searched the aircraft, after it was forced to land in Vienna. If there was any doubt about Edward Snowden’s presence on board the right approach would have been to request for information about the passenger list and take it at face value. This is the appropriate diplomatic procedure. Everything else was a humiliation of a Head of State. It would be immediately perceived as a very wrong decision taking into account the extreme sensitivities that prevail in South America where many believe the Europeans to be just arrogant and racist.

Now, a few days into this story, people are finally recognising the mistake. But they do not want to properly apologise for it. That’s to add injury to insult. 

The Egyptian transition

The initial reaction from the international community to the Egyptian events has been very measured. This is certainly good news. The country needs to be allowed to go through a new transition without too much interference from outside and be given a new chance to redraft a more inclusive constitution and organise proper elections. Peace and internal security are critical at this stage. As it is full respect for the rights of every citizen, big or small. 

Egypt

Egypt is in very deep waters. One can only be very concerned. As a key country in a very complex region, the international community can only discuss, with great serenity, what can be done to assist the Egyptians in this hour of great difficulties. Any ill-measured statement or decision, be it taken in Washington or Brussels, can only make things worse.

Portugal loves political confusion

Yesterday, the Portuguese Finance Minister left the government. That was no big surprise, in the end, as many had expected that decision for quite a bit of time. 

But today we got the real surprise: the Foreign Minister, Paulo Portas, who is also the leader of the junior party in the coalition government, called it quits. The destabilising impact of his decision is enormous. I do not expect the current government to survive such blow. 

Actually, Portas seems to have the same opinion. By quitting now he is getting ready to come back in late September, in alliance with the Socialist Party. So, he is playing for his political continuity. 

The problem is that all this has a very deep impact on Portugal’s access to the international financial markets. Without proper access there will be no money to bridge the public finances gap. That means plenty of hard times ahead. But in party politics that’s not important. What is really critical is for the political leaders to have access to power and everything that comes with it. They are no statesmen. They are, like you and me, just trying to make a nice living out of bad politics and the country’s ruin. 

It’s a matter of choice. 

Portugal's Finance Minister has resigned

The Portuguese Finance Minister, Vítor Gaspar, resigned this afternoon. He had lost the public opinion battle long ago, as he was seen by the voters as the engine of the austerity programme Portugal has been implementing for two years. His name was, in the people’s minds, linked to taxes and economic recession. This was, of course, an unfair connection, as the economic situation of the country is much more complex than just the austerity measures he had to adopt. But politics are like that: you cannot find yourself without a popular power base.

For a long period, his power came from the confidence the Prime Minister had on his abilities to master the intricacies of the financial adjustment programme in addition to fact that Gaspar had a lot of support in Brussels, Berlin, Frankfurt and other EU capitals. But this was a time-bound power base, condemned to die. As the Prime Minister felt more and more isolated, including within his own party, his support to the man everyone identifies with the austerity could only come to an end. It has now happened. And Gaspar, who is an outsider in terms of the national politics, could read the writing on the wall. 

Our friends the spies from the other side of the table...

I do not understand why some EU leaders, in the Parliament and the Commission, are so surprised by the news that the Americans have been spying on them. You have to be very naïve or have no experience of international affairs to believe that “friendly nations” are just that, friends…Friends have interests and they try to protect them. That means, among other things, that they want to know, well in advance, what you are cooking, to be able to reach the dinner table prepared for event…

The US has a special interest in EU affairs. They are particularly interested in trade intelligence, but also on the European positions regarding key international matters, such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Security Council resolutions and so on. Furthermore, they hope to get some additional information about other players by plugging in to the intelligence systems of the European nations.  

They have also a special sharing system with like-minded nations such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and… the UK. Therefore, the British are very much aware of the US is doing regarding the gathering of clandestine information in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, or elsewhere. This also raises a very simple issue: many of the things that are said within the EU are certainly shared by London with their Washington mates. So what? Just make your position clear and transparent and be also sure that when you negotiate with the US you are negotiating with a very well informed – and therefore prepared – interlocutor.