They can't drink oil

      The collapse of the oil price has several major implications. It is an economic tsunami. For the oil-producing developing countries, in Africa and elsewhere, it means an extraordinary loss of revenue. That’s the case for Nigeria, Angola, Congo, South Sudan, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, and so on. It adds fuel to social instability in those countries. It brings, at least, a new level of poverty and hardship to their populations. For the developed countries, it carries serious capital losses for the pension funds and other sovereign funds that were heavily invested in oil corporations and all the other companies that deal with bits and pieces of the oil industry. For all of us, it discourages new investments in renewable sources of energy. The bottom rock oil price makes any renewable too expensive to contemplate at this stage. 

The oil consumption is at present very low, because of the lockdowns that are implemented all over. But also, because the United States has continued to pump vast amounts of oil. They are now the largest producer, with 12.3 million barrels per day. President Trump could have compelled the industry to reduce daily production. There was a recommendation to cut it by 2 million barrels per day. He decided not to act because he saw this branch of the economy as a key pillar of his political basis. There are 10 million oil and gas sector jobs in the US, plus many billionaires that inject money in the Republican camp.   Now, he is promising them billions of dollars in subsidies. Public money being wasted when the solution was to reduce exploitation. His political choice has a huge impact on the domestic taxpayers’ money and on the world economy. It is inexcusable.

They say that misfortunes never come alone. Indeed.

Algeria and Sudan

Algeria and Sudan mean good news. It is so rewarding to have positive developments in these two countries. People are in the streets, fighting for democracy, after so many years of government brutality. And they are not ready to let change go and be just apparent. They want deep political reforms, serious constitutional changes. Civilian rule after the dictatorship of the intelligence services and the armed forces.

They will do it by themselves. There is no need for external pressure or interference. In both cases, we have populations that have shown political maturity and indomitable courage. They learnt, after so many years of hardship, to be strong and clear in their determination.

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

Sahel and the Islamist threat

Another link on the Sahel security situation:

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/the-complex-and-growing-threat-of-militant-islamist-groups-in-the-sahel/

The Sahel is important

https://www.securityconference.de/en/media-library/munich-security-conference-2019/video/parallel-panel-discussion-security-in-the-sahel-traffick-jam/

The link will bring us to the panel discussion on the situation in the Sahel that took place today at the Munich Security Conference. 

Tunisia needs Europe´s attention

The Tunisian youth is again on the streets. Five years after the beginning of the democratic transition many things have been achieved in terms of freedom, human rights and gender. The country remains the only example, in the Arab region, of a peaceful and legitimate change. But the economic opportunities are still missing. It is dreadfully hard to find a job. The terrorist attacks have kept the tourists away. The complex and dangerous situation in the neighbourhood, with Libya on one side and Algeria on the other, is not helping either. Many young Tunisians have actually been radicalised and about five thousand of them have joined the ranks of the barbaric organization that calls itself “Islamic State”.

In addition, there are serious governance issues that have not been addressed. Corruption is widespread. All these problems have created the impression that there is no future for the younger generations. The overall sentiment is one of deep frustration. Therefore, people are back to the streets, and again in very large numbers.

I have called on several occasions for assistance to the Tunisian democracy. The country needs investments, trade agreements, gender-balanced skills development, security assistance and tourists. It also requires a major overhaul of its public administration. EU should focus on Tunisia. France has promised today one billion euros of financial assistance to be disbursed during the next five years. But Paris should also be the Tunisian advocate in the European institutions. Europe cannot let Tunisia down.

Let´s support Tunisia

The Tunisian presidential elections – the first round was held today – are important for the country´s citizens, obviously, but also for the image of Arab revolutions.

Tunisia was the first country to undergo a major political change based on mass demonstrations. It is today the best example of democratization in the Arab world, notwithstanding the many problems the country is still confronted with. And all the friends of Tunisia and democracy in that part of the planet would like it to continue to be a good example. Even if we know that there are many dimensions that are far from being good, including some related to the old oligarchy, its corrupted practices and its attempts to highjack the process, we need to be able to say that there is pluralism, tolerance and rule of law in a country that shares its borders with states that are still in deep crisis.

We should also be able to convince the tourists to go back to Tunisia and all types of investors to look at the country´s potential. 

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Egypt should not repeat the Algerian crisis

Egypt’s situation is in serious risk of paralysing the little that is still working in the country. And it is also moving fast towards a dead end. It is time to realise that a repetition of the Algeria’s crisis of the early nineties is now becoming a real possibility. One should remember the very high costs that Algerian crisis brought in, during so many years, both in terms of human suffering and underdevelopment.  The Egyptian leadership has to be able to rise to the very dramatic challenge that the country faces, be able to talk sense to the nation and propose a way forward that is as inclusive as possible.

If that is not the case, Egypt will move closer to violent unrest. 

Mali is not Afghanistan

Containing the Islamist threat as Gaddafi’s ghost casts shadow in the Sahel

By Victor Angelo and Marc de Bernis

France finds itself relatively isolated in its intervention in Mali. While its European partners and the U.S. government have expressed support to the French operation aimed at preventing armed Islamic groups from seizing power, this has not translated into concrete co-operation, except for token logistical assistance.

One reason for the reluctance of France's western allies to engage on the ground is the fear that Mali could become an inextricable quagmire comparable to Afghanistan. This perception is wrong. Superficial comparisons lead to procrastination which could result in the escalation of a threat that could have been contained. 

Mali, like Afghanistan, is a developing country whose population is mainly Muslim. The similarity stops here. From a military and operational point of view, the Mali context is much less favourable to jihadists than Afghanistan. The various Islamists groups involved in northern Mali include no more than a few thousand fighters – with estimates of less than 3,000 – who operate within a vast but sparsely populated territory, home to less than two million people. In this desert and flat area – except for a mountainous zone in the north-west, the Adrar des Ifoghas – it is very difficult to hide, including within the local population, thus movements are easily spotted. Jihadist enclaves can be easily identified through intelligence which renders them  extremely vulnerable to air strikes. More importantly, there is no Pakistan equivalent that lies adjacent to Mali to offer safe haven to militants. The Taliban would never have been able to establish their power over Afghanistan and to resist NATO forces without the refuge offered to them next door, in Pakistan. Jihadists in Mali have no access to an external sanctuary or base to train their fighters. Certainly not in Algeria, Niger or Mauritania. Not even in the more fractured Libya.

From a cultural and religious standpoint, the region is dominated by the Tuaregs who co-exist with a mix of other ethnic groups, including Maures, Songhai and Peuls. The Muslim population follows a moderate and peaceful interpretation of Islam, in harmony with the ancestral traditions of Africa. Religious practice is not a primary characteristic of the Tuareg lifestyle. Even if a tiny fraction may be lured into a more extremist form of Islam, as advocated by Salafist groups, with impressionable young men falling prey to the proselytism of jihadist recruiters, it is unlikely that the cultural landscape would allow for the development of a strong extremist movement comparable to that of the Taliban. Recent events have shown the Malian population to unanimously reject the Sharia law as imposed by the Islamist groups in areas under their control.

In economic and political terms, Mali is fragile but not a failed state. Despite of its limited resources, the country, which is among the world’s poorest, has managed to democratise. The real problem lies in the lack of good governance which has led northern Mali to become a smuggling corridor between Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe for all forms of trafficking – in drugs, arms, tobacco, and people. However, the country’s economy is not dependant on illegal commodities, contrary to the case of Afghanistan, which is plagued by the narcotics trade.

The crisis in Mali is related to the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. Many Tuareg men had been employed by Gaddafi as militias. Having lost their jobs, these fighters had returned to the Sahel, particularly to northern Mali, to establish an alliance with various Islamic movements inspired by Al Qaeda. The recent break-up of this coalition demonstrates the incompatibility between the Tuareg National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), which is deeply rooted in the region’s history, and Islamist terrorists. The latter have no legitimacy within the population and no means to control the territory on a sustainable basis, both economically and militarily. As such they can be eliminated through concerted and determined international action in co-operation with the states of the region, including Algeria. At the same time, long term solutions require a renewed dialogue between the Tuareg MNLA and the different Sahelian governments. This should start now, as military operations progress. Meanwhile, the international community should review the delivery of development assistance to the Sahel to achieve a more targeted approach to state capacity-building and poverty alleviation. Particular attention should be given to the urban youth, as their engagement is key to curb militancy and violent uprising.

(721 words)

Victor Angelo was a former UN Under-Secretary-General and the UNSG’s Special Representative for the Central African Republic and Chad.

Marc de Bernis was a former UN Development Programme’s Resident Representative in Algeria and Niger.

It is wise to be prudent

Too much snow in our part of Europe transformed this Sunday into a quiet day. However, that did not prevent a couple of leaders from being too excessive about the situation in the Sahel. They sound now like new converts to a cause they are at present magnifying beyond proportions, after so many months spent overlooking the crisis that was in the making.  

It is a very serious threat, no doubt, but it requires a thoughtful approach to it, not an emotional response, as Mr Cameron seems to believe. With good coordination between all the local, regional and key international players, it should be possible to sort things out. Any comparison with Afghanistan is, in my opinion, out of proportions. We cannot compare two very different regional contexts.

Please define a more precise end state!

I was told yesterday that President Hollande defined the eradication of the Islamist terrorists from Mali as the objective of the on-going military campaign. He added that the troops will stay in that African country as long as it is necessary to achieve this goal.

In my opinion, this objective is too vast, dangerously vague as it can lead to a stalemate, a never-ending and unaffordable mission. Furthermore, with time, it has the risk of turning the French public opinion against an operation they support today.

A military intervention like this one needs to have a clear end state.  It should be as short as possible and lead to a political process. It has also to be linked to the actions carried out by others, in the case, by the West African nations as well as by the EU training mission that is being put together. It cannot be taken in isolation. It has also to have a regional dimension. And above all, it cannot ignore that at the end of the day, the ultimate objective is to create the conditions for Mali to take care of its own security and governance. This requires a comprehensive approach and it is much larger than the current military operation by France. This operation, with all its merits, should not be more than a stop-gap in a multidimensional and multi-actor process.

The Algerian hostage crisis

I agree with the decision taken by the Algerian authorities to storm the gas facility and try to find a solution to the crisis without delay. 

I know that my opinion might be perceived as contrary to the ones expressed through diplomatic channels by the UK Prime Minister or my friend, the Foreign Minister of Norway, among others. When contacting Algiers, they both emphasised the need for safeguarding the lives of the hostages at any cost. This is in principle the right approach. But out there, in the middle of a vast territory which is easy prey to all kinds of bandits, the leaders of Algeria have very little options. The key point for them was actually to send a very strong message to all the armed groups that kidnapping and attacking gas and oil facilities is not acceptable and will lead to the death of the assailants. 

Tonight, I think that message has been received by the terrorists. 

Of course, I sincerely deplore the heavy loss of life. And I feel deeply sorry for the families. For each one of them, this is a major personal tragedy. But I am convinced these lives were not lost in vain. The kind of action that has been taken might discourage many other terrorist initiatives in the future.

Now, the real challenge for the Algerian authorities is to look for the sponsors of this act of terror and bring them to justice. This is a major test for the government as many of these groups have powerful links within the officer corps of the national Algerian army.

Mr Cameron and other European leaders should now focus their attention on advising Algiers to do what remains to be done. On that front, they should be very firm. 

A new situation in North Africa

The hostage situation in Algeria, with the kidnapping of many foreigners, from different nationalities, by an al-Qaeda inspired group, opens a new phase in the security crisis in that part of North Africa as well as other areas surrounding Mali. All of sudden governments from outside the region are realising that their interests in the gas and oil fields in Algeria and the vicinity could be under very serious threat. This can deeply affect the functioning of the many fields and lead to a significant decrease in the production levels.

Mali, Algeria and the EU

The events in Mali, especially the French deployment, have brought that part of the world back to the agenda in Brussels and other EU capitals. This is good news because there was no way the West African states alone – even with some “technical support” from a couple of external partners – could be in a position to put together a military force capable of fighting the rebel groups operating in Northern Mali. Most of West Africa has very weak armies, with poor operational capabilities. Therefore, and taking into account the seriousness of the challenge, European countries and other nations have to be ready for a UN-sponsored robust peacekeeping operation in Mali. That’s the way forward.

It is also part of way forward to ask a very simple question: who is providing fuel, spares, and vital supplies to the extremists in Northern Mali? People who deal with these matters have the answer, I am sure. Maybe the answer is just on the other side of the Northern border. Once this question is answered in enough evidence has been collected, I think the key leaders in the EU should confront their political counterparts in the country concerned and firmly request them to put a stop to those logistical lines of supply. That would contribute a long way to a negotiated solution of the national crisis in Mali.