Iran, West Africa and the info war game

We are witnessing the emergence of a new campaign against Iran that includes “information” about that country’s growing presence in West Africa, the Sahel and Sudan. It basically says that, following data available to certain security agencies – not named –, Iran is engaged in building a network of terrorist cells in those regions of Africa. Those cells would later be activated against Western interests in the countries concerned.

I have known these corners of Africa for decades. And I have several friends in positions of authority in the area, including in matters of internal security. There is indeed a serious increase of radical activities and armed groups over there. But their link with Iran seems very unlikely. Certainly, very difficult to prove. Those radicals are inspired by Sunni fundamentalism, whilst Iran is a Shiite proponent of Islam.

What I have noticed, and my friends have confirmed, is that the new radicalism in that belt of Africa is mainly supported by groups and mosques based in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, especially in Qatar, as well as in Pakistan. In addition, there is also some influence coming from Egypt.

Sudan, the people and the Western interests

Not too long ago, during my time in the Sahel Region, I met regularly with Sudanese community villagers, men and women, as well as with officials. I had also to deal with the security and humanitarian consequences of the Janjaweed militias, the armed groups doing the dirty work in Darfur at the service of Omar al-Bashir. I gained then a lot of admiration for the people of Sudan and felt deeply their aspiration for security and democracy. I also learned how strategic the Khartoum leadership could be, including the intelligence agencies and the generals.

The fall of al-Bashir, following the continued, widespread popular pressure, came to me as good news. But I also knew that the military and security establishment, including the militias, now operating as Rapid Support Forces (RSF), would not let it go too easily. And that is the situation today. More than a hundred people were killed last week in the capital by the military and the militias, many more were wounded or raped. The establishment cannot lose control. They have a heavy hand on the economy – on what remains of it, as most of the economy is in a state of collapse – and they are also afraid to be brought to justice due to past crimes they have been associated with. Therefore, it is the survival of the al-Bashir regime’s elite that is now at stake. They are ready to make al-Bashir and a few others pay the bill. But they do not want it to go beyond that.

The generals, including General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF boss, are closely supported by the Saudis, the Egyptian President and the Military, and the United Arab Emirates leadership. The generals have sent Sudanese armed men to fight the Saudi-UAE war in Yemen, among other things. This is a smart alliance. It protects the Khartoum generals from pressure from the European Union and the US. For the West, the friends of our friends deserve some consideration, no doubt. That explains the relative lack of attention the Sudanese situation has generated in Brussels and other capitals. People’s rights are a beautiful thing as long as they do not interfere with Western interests in the region.

The Chinese have also strong stakes in Sudan, particularly related to the oil pipeline that crosses the country.

All this makes the Sudanese transition to democracy extremely challenging for the people of that great country.

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

EU and Arab Nations: lots to discuss

The European Union (still 28 States at the time of the meeting..) and the Arab League (22 States) first-ever summit has just taken place in Egypt. The joint statement can be read at:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/25/sharm-el-sheikh-summit-declaration/

Flying over the Sinai Peninsula

The Sinai plane crash raises a couple of chief questions. It has to be seriously and independently investigated. It would be unacceptable to see any kind of national political considerations masking the truth. There is such a risk, I am afraid.

People should know the causes. The next wave of tourists, of course, and all those flying over the region – it is an important corridor for aircraft going or coming out of the Gulf States – but also the relatives of those who lost their lives on Saturday. 

Downright pathetic politics in Egypt

Every time I see images, or read the proceedings of today´s Egyptian courts, a single word comes to mind: deplorable.

When the shock is too big, we can´t find too many words. 

End of summer vacations

End of August, end of summer holidays. This summer has been however a very busy one. And as we get into full gear in September, we will see an international scene pretty crowded by a number of key issues. The fragility of the politics has an obvious impact on the economy and the international business climate. But I have to say that surprisingly there is some kind of euphoria on the international financial front. A bit as if the politics and the financial matters were happening in two different worlds. And they are, in many ways. Russia and Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and ISIS, Libya and Egypt, the Ebola crisis, all that looks like crisis in distant planets. Big financial funds and the masters of global business transactions have been able somehow to isolate those crises and they believe the risk of contagion is today lower. But we forget that planets can also get into each other´s trajectory and crash. Prudence is then the right approach as we get into the new season.

An archipelago of collapsing States

There is now an “archipelago of collapse” that goes from Mali to Iraq, through Libya, Egypt and Syria. It´s like an oil slick that tends to expand South, through the Sahel and towards Central Africa, and also to keep moving to the East, to Afghanistan and Pakistan. These “archipelago of collapsing States” is about the failure of proper governance in each one of the countries concerned. But it is also, more and more, an indication that the international community, in particular the Security Council and other key international players, need to think again about their role. Their contribution to international human rights, peace, human security and stability is facing very serious challenges. It has to be thought through again. Intervention? What kind of intervention? How to prevent collapse? How to keep different communities together under the same national flag? What is the responsibility of the international community? What are the lessons learned in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere?

This is a debate that is getting more and more urgent. But who is ready to take the lead in the discussion?

Keep the eyes on the ball

The Football World Cup started today in São Paulo. The TV screens will be full of soccer news during the next few weeks. At a time when the crises in South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Ukraine, Iraq, Pakistan and other places keep deepening, people´s attention will be busy and focused on the ball. As they say, keep the eyes on the ball, we will take care of the rest…

Egypt´s distress

Egypt´s current crisis raises many questions. Three years ago, the democratic transition for a post-Mubarak era had generated great enthusiasm. Then, after a brief and not always wise passage of the Muslim Brotherhood through power, the military took over. The coup d´état passed unnoticed in the Western capitals, a true miracle, like when one manages to walk in between the drops of the pouring rain. Now, hundreds of people are being sentenced to death, then in many cases their sentences commuted to life in prison, most of them just for the crime of being in the streets during mass demonstrations against the military authorities. It is a mockery of justice in a country that deserves more than this absurd – an unacceptable – way of dealing with discontent.

Below the surface we have a country that is unable to take care of itself. The population growth has been too rapid, a true explosion, and there is no economy to match it. Jobs are just not there. And the traditional solution – to migrate to richer countries in the Middle East – is less and less viable. People are too unskilled to be able to move out of their poor environment. They are trapped. That´s the worst thing that can happen to a poor person.

It is, in many ways, a wake-up call of situations to come in similar countries, in places with the same type of demographic and economic challenges. It should make one think deeply. But before that, it calls for a louder voice that is able to say that something is terribly wrong in the banks of the Nile River. It is time for the international friends of Egypt to step in. 

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

Today´s Egypt

I have talked to someone who knows Egypt well. And I came to the conclusion that any black-and-white approach to the current situation in the country would be a serious mistake. Egypt is a very fragile society, with many divisions and fault lines. The military offer a bit of a unifying platform. But many in the country think that their future is going backwards. And unfortunately, we can expect a long period of instability. The military response to instability is authoritarianism. Many people will resent it. But the region cannot afford a chaotic Egypt. Where to strike the balance?

Peace and security in the Middle East

The Middle East remains a region deeply unstable. And the UN Secucity Council, which has the principle responsibility for international peace and security, is clearly unable to play a constructive role in the region. What we see, at the beginning of this New Year, is a serious deterioration of the internal security situation in Iraq and Lebanon. Both countries share border lines with Syria and this makes them part of a larger system of instability and conflict in critical part of the world.

If we look beyond these three states, we will see fragile situations in several neighbouring countries. To the East, that corridor of fragility includes Afghanistan and Pakistan. Closer to Syria, I would not underestimate the potential for trouble that exists in countries like Jordan, Bahrain, and even in Turkey. Then, we have Yemen and Egypt, Libya and the Arab states of North Africa.

In this context, 2014 will be a busy year for all those who care about security, protection of civilians and human rights issues in the larger Middle East region. 

No time for a greater crisis in the Middle East

Very quietly but very clearly, the big international business bosses and their friends in the academic and media worlds here in the EU have been sending the message that a major security crisis in the Middle East at this time, when the European economies are starting a timid recovery, would be an extremely bad idea. It is not just the vast and uncontrollable uncertainty that it will create, not just the impact on oil prices, not just the fact that existing crisis around the Suez Canal is threatening enough, to mention only a few of current hot spots. It is all that combined plus the fact that some of the Middle East countries remain major clients and investors in the EU economies. It is no time to destabilize them, as well. International commerce does not want any adventure at this moment. 

Egypt and Turkey

During his time in office, Morsi developed a close relationship with Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey. This political alliance has certainly raised many eyebrows within the leadership of the Egyptian Armed Forces. They were very much aware of the treatment reserved by Erdogan and his party to the Turkish generals and admirals and they could foresee the same kind of fate befalling on them, sooner or later. For many undecided top officers this growing proximity between Cairo and the party in power in Ankara became reason enough to convince them that inaction was no option. It would be rather a fatal mistake. 

Egypt: where are the leverage points?

Egypt is probably the most important country in the Arab world. Because of its size, the Suez Canal, its mixture of Muslim and Christian populations, its border with Israel and the Gaza Strip, its scholarly relevance, the relations with the US, the competition for political influence between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and so on.

For those reasons, the dramatic events of these days keep sending shock waves well beyond Egypt’s neighbourhood. And everyone, in all the key capitals, is looking for means to influence both sides in the country. But they have not been successful. The question that is in everyone minds is very clear: what could be the leverage points that might give weight to foreign pressure. And that question remains without an answer. 

Egypt's future can only be built on compromise

Following the dramatic situation that has developed in Egypt, the EU and the US are struggling to issue “politically correct” statements. If you read what the European capitals have published about the events or listen to President Obama’s commentary, you realise that everyone wants to condemn the violence and, at the same time, avoid any words that might undermine the authority of the Egyptian military. This is an impossible exercise of balancing.

In the meantime, it is also impossible to be optimistic about Egypt’s foreseeable future.  Violence on both sides has gone too far and that makes the adoption of sensible positions much more difficult. Both camps seem to bet on confrontation and force, in a country that is only viable if based on compromise. And that, for me, is the key message the world should pass on to Cairo. 

The Security Council has to look at the Egyptian crisis soonest

I wrote yesterday’s post hours before the new dramatic developments in Egypt. At the end of my writing, I said “everything else is too tragic to contemplate”.

Today, we have to contemplate it. Many people – the exact figure remains unclear – were shot at when demonstrating in the streets of Cairo. The bullets came from the armed forces and the police side. In some cases, there was a deliberate intention to kill. Sniper fire is about “executing” people. And snipers are very extensively trained sharpshooters that can only be found, in a country like Egypt, within the official security apparatus.

It is time for the international community to come in and offer the bridges and platforms for dialogue that the Egyptians themselves might not be able to construct. Indeed, the Egyptian society seems too divided to be able to sit together on their own and agree together on a way out of the deep crisis and on their future. Key members of Security Council should step in now. The pressure for them to take up their international responsibility should come from all quarters. Without that pressure from the international public opinion, those countries will not act. They will continue to pretend that they are very busy elsewhere and that Egypt is mature enough to solve her own problems.

This is the time to act. 

Egypt needs courageous leadership

Egypt’s domestic situation is very volatile. People have, however, been able to keep the instability within peaceful parameters. In a country that is deeply divided, people have shown a great degree of political maturity. The point is to see leaders emerging, from both sides of the divide. Leaders that can be accepted as credible and perceived as strong enough to move the situation forward, to political dialogue. That’s the only option that can be accepted. And that is the kind of focus that the interventions coming from outside the country should have.

Everything else is too tragic to contemplate. 

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world.