#Brexit, what a crazy idea

Brexit. Leave. Leave might be a question of opinion. Fine! But it has become obvious it is a sinister, and above all, stupid opinion.

China and the waters

Global geostrategic changes go very fast these days, thanks to the Chinese leadership.

Look at this, for instance.

Back in 2010 – just yesterday, one could say – the Chinese corporations had invested in about 10 of the 50 largest deep-water ports of the world. Now, in 2019, Chinese money is invested in over 30 of those ports. In addition, the Chinese merchant marine is currently the world’s second largest.

Becoming a great maritime power might be a Chinese dream, in the leaders’ minds and political agenda. It is also a major strategic move, to be added to other ambitious, huge initiatives China is implementing, at sea and over land. The overall goal is to be number one by 2049, the centennial year of their revolution. That’s the way the Chinese leadership, and above all, President Xi, see the world of tomorrow: China as the pivot, the centre of the international order.

Europe and China

Brexit issues made us lose sight of the joint meeting on 26 March between Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker. The main credit for such summit should be given to the French President. He took the initiative and was able to convince the Chinese President to accept it.

Xi Jinping was visiting France. President Macron´s message to him was friendly but unambiguous: you should not intent to establish good relations with any of the European countries, including the larger ones, without considering the EU context and the fact the countries are part of a political union. Member States keep their independence, that is very much true, but they are also inserted in a larger system of common interests.

I see three messages in all this. First, there is a balance to be respected between individual and common European political objectives. Second, no bilateral action undertaken by China should be perceived as undermining the EU´s unity. This latter point must also be practised by the European countries. When dealing with China, they must keep the concern for EU´s cohesion as a priority. The third message is about power and leverage. Europe can only be able to respond to China’s domineering approach if its Member States act together. The opposite, to believe they can be treated by China on an equal footing is either political naïveté or a manifestation of deceitful policies.

The four-sided summit has also helped to prepare for the next high-level meeting between the EU and China that will take place on 9 April.

Liberalism is not a useful banner

In today’s Europe, the banner around “liberal values” does not attract enough support. Everything that is associated with “liberalism” is seen as elitist and globalist. At least, it is perceived as unclear, a concept difficult to grasp and distant from the daily concerns people are confronted with. It cannot be used to win votes during the forthcoming European elections.  

UK, the land of the confusion

The “will of the people” is no longer represented in the British Parliament. Both parties are deeply divided within their own ranks. The image of their leaders is not good at all. Both have lost great chunks of credibility. Both, not just Theresa May. But her case is even more significant because she is the Prime Minister of the land.

In normal circumstances, such dramatic situation would bring a call for fresh elections. That’s not the case this time. Everything is so confusing in British politics that even this very traditional move is not implemented. The “friends” of Theresa May are just positioning themselves to replace her, without going back to the voters.

However, nobody knows what will happen in the next days and weeks. We might have some clarity by the end of this week. It is indispensable.

Tomorrow or today?

Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow. A very political word. Also, a tactical concept, a guide for inaction and avoiding hard decisions, moments of truth.

Or, so often, tomorrow should take place today, make it happen. That’s leadership.

EU Council on Brexit and China

The European Council meeting of yesterday and today was not an easy affair. But it went well. The Heads of State and Government have shown a deep commitment to the discussions. They could agree on a response to Theresa May’s request for a delay in the Brexit date – and this was a very delicate matter, that took many hours to be discussed – and on an approach towards China. In both cases, the twin concerns were to keep the EU united and, at the same time, to leave the door open for a balanced relationship.

The member States might have different views about important issues. However, no one wants to rock the boat. And all understand that by reaching a common understanding about their shared interests they can then have a clear - and stronger - position towards the outside world. Collectively, their interests are leveraged. 

Again about Europe and Africa

My presentation of yesterday at the European Political Strategy Centre, a think tank directed attached to the President of the European Commission, was about the future of the partnership between Europe and Africa. The conference room filled up. Very senior people from the Commissioners’ Cabinets and from the External Action Service and Development Cooperation attended and asked questions, at the end of my long introductory speech. 

I could notice that there is a genuine interested in establishing a more constructive rapport between the Continents. I think I can say these key people understand that both regions will continue to be closely linked, for good or for bad, notwithstanding the heavy presence of new players in the African scene. In that case, it is better to deepen the cooperation and do it along strategic lines and with goals that respond to the interests of Europe and Africa. For this, a frank process of dialogue, at different levels of authority, is essential. The question is not whether one is hopeful or pessimist about the future. The point is to be very much aware of the immense challenges that both sides face and see how they can be addressed through shared values and joint action.

Europe and Africa

In my discussion today with senior EU officials, I asked them  to take home 7 major issues:

1.     Population explosion

 .   State legitimacy and Human Security

3.     Understanding State Fragility

4.     Livestock: do not leave behind the shepherds

5.     The Dragon has a plan: China in Africa

6.     Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, supported by the EU and Member States diplomatic / trade / security machineries

7.     Tell the story: keep repeating the appropriate narratives. Be frank and positive

Sometimes, it is necessary to say no

I fear a people that values blind obedience. And history has demonstrated how far blind obedience can take us on the road to tragedy.