How to deal with Erdogan?

The situation in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming very tense. Turkey is doing oil mapping at sea, in waters that are contested by a fellow NATO Member State – Greece. The oil vessel is escorted by several Turkish warships. And now France has responded to a Greek appeal and is sending navy assets to the region. This situation can easily escalate and become an open conflict. It must be dealt with by the NATO and European authorities immediately.

The truth of the matter is that Europe does not have a clear line of approach towards Turkey. Delaying the accession negotiations or approving a light package of sanctions against the regime in Ankara is not an effective policy line. A firmer position is required. The European leaders must understand that President Erdogan is a major threat to the stability of Europe. In addition, they must realise that someone of his calibre does not understand a soft approach. He knows about force and can get the message if the message is forceful.

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage.