Looking ahead, through the mist

 Translation of yesterday’s opinion piece I published in Diário de Notícias (Lisbon). 22 Aug. 2020

 

Back to the imponderables

Victor Angelo

 

The great challenge in our societies is to find and support the rise of leaders who are realistic, transformative, and convincing. This challenge is pressing today. With the summer vacation approaching its end, and as we look at the four months left to complete the year we cannot find it strange that many of us are apprehensive. We see a high tide of trouble and a low of international leadership. No current leader can go beyond the limits of his parish and propose an encouraging and credible perspective regarding what lies ahead.

The world scene will continue to be marked by the Covid-19 pandemic and, to a large extent, by American domestic politics. Not to mention other complications in our geopolitical neighbourhood, such as the growing tension between Europe and Turkey, now in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, plus the endless conflicts and difficulties in the Middle East and the Sahel, starting with Mali. A list of concerns that is constantly growing and which now includes Belarus, thanks to the dictator Alexander Lukashenko, a reminiscence of Soviet times and of what the single party culture has produced as political monsters. Not forgetting, of course, the fractures within our European area, which is very fragile as a whole and with several national crises already visible or in the pipeline, as will be the case with Bulgaria and, for other reasons, Italy, where there is a very acute social malaise. The pandemic is a global inferno to which a number of local fires are added. The wisdom will be to understand what all this entails as consequences and to know how to propose a different international order. To think like that seems like a mirage. But this is an exceptional moment that challenges us and demands a different vision of the future.

Regarding the presidential elections in the United States, a friend of mine told me this week that we must be patient and wait for November. He added that he had no doubts about the defeat of Donald Trump and that afterwards everything would return to normal, including in international relations. I do not take Trump's defeat for granted. Democrats should not take victory as a bean count. There are, it is true, little more than seventy days to go before the election and the forecasts are not favourable to the President. But this is a time when imponderables can happen. The more objective and attentive analysts remind us that the country is immersed in a multidimensional crisis. It is not only the chaos in the management of the pandemic, its impact on the economy or the President's widespread and flagrant ineptitude. The Trump-Covid mix is causing a deep social shake-up, structural, with racial dimensions, poverty, and despair. It undermines the system and democracy, with the radicalisation of population sectors, especially those who believe that defeating Trump would mean tightening the siege they think exists against their interests.

Donald Trump does not see himself as a loser. He will try anything and everything to reclaim the lost ground, or, in desperation, throw the chessboard down the river. We face unpredictable times. He and his people need to continue the capture of the federal administration for another four years. Some analysts think this could lead to the president playing very dangerous games for the stability of his country and the world. And they are even more concerned when they see the blind alignment of GOP leaders, who dare do nothing to counter the president.

I am one of those who think those fears are exaggerated. The American institutions are strong enough to stop any temptation from the abyss. And the rest of the world is patient enough not to fall for provocation. Including China. But the truth is the year has been a sea of unimaginable surprises. So, for the months ahead, it's best to think of the unthinkable. That would be the challenge I would launch to a couple of European centres of strategic thinking. In the meantime, we should be careful that we continue, here on this side, to work for the best, without neglecting to prepare so that we can respond to further confusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The drifting United States

The US is in crisis and I feel deeply sorry for the many friends I have in that great country. It continues to be deeply affected by the coronavirus pandemic, more than 100,000 lives have been lost and millions of people are without a job. Now, there are demonstrations and anger in many cities in response to police brutality and racism. The African-Americans are the main target of the racist attitudes we can easily notice within the police forces and in some segments of society. But the key problem resides in the political leadership of the country. President Donald Trump is a man that stirs up conflict and social disharmony. His approach to power is based on antagonising part of the American society. It is the politics of the hatred and rejection, splitting the citizens in two clear-cut groups: the supporters and those that he sees as enemies. At a time the country needs solidarity and unity of purpose, President Trump brings in discord and resentment. Seen from this side of the ocean, that is the most direct route to a deeper national disaster. And we can only be extremely worried because the US are the most powerful nation on earth. It cannot be adrift, rudderless.

Day 13 for the Yellow Vests

Today it was the 13^th Saturday with Yellow Vest demonstrators in Paris and other French cities.

It’s obvious the movement is still able to gather a good number of people. We can say so even if the total number of protesters today was smaller than in past weeks. The variety of reasons that bring the activists to the streets explains the numbers.

This is not a rally of dunces, as some would like us to see it. There are extremists in the ranks – militants from the far-right and from the far-left. They are trying to ride the social malaise. And they feel happy when they see cars burning or the State authority being challenged. But the majority of those on the streets is composed of people that face daily hardships and want to benefit from a safer economic environment. They are simple people, and they raise the key question about how to organise the society in developed nations at a time of big digital transformations, combined with international economic competition and the emergence of masses of skilled workers in other parts of the world.

Poverty in the EU

Recent data shows that one in 10 European workers lives in a household that is statistically classified as poor. This is undoubtedly a high percentage of people. They work but their income is not enough to cover the full range of their basic needs. Very often, they are the only source of income in their nuclear family because they are single or divorced people with small children at their charge.

Childcare is an expensive line in the European families’ budgets. As such, if there is an entry point for any programme aiming at addressing poverty, this is an obvious one. Social systems must be geared towards providing better help to parents. Childcare and schooling, from a very early age up to the end of mandatory education, must be free – and some additional cash made available – for those parents that have low levels of income. That would be money well spent, both in terms of poverty reduction and the education of the new generations. It would also have the benefit of reducing the chances of poor people being tempted by populist politicians.

On the burkini

Supporting the ban of the “burkini” in some French beaches sends a very strong political message, right from the top, as the Prime Minister himself has come out in favour of the prohibition: the French Muslims are expected to do much more in terms of integration in the host culture. There is the sentiment, in many quarters of the population, that the immigrants are not willing to accept the French way of life and more, that they are now engaged in a campaign to change the national culture and the behavioural norms.

This is also a very complex message. Behind it, I see a growing exasperation towards the Muslim population. Such trend can lead to serious conflicts. France seems to be in a path leading towards confrontation and greater social instability. If that comes to happen then we can say that the terrorists have managed to achieve two major goals: social destabilisation and diversion of public attention to matters that should not occupy the centre of the political attention. 

Floods, demonstrations and media attention

The floods in and around Paris and other areas have washed away from the news the strikes and other demonstrations that had made the headlines prior to these natural calamities. And mass action without plenty of pictures on TV loses speed and strength. But the issues are still on the table and we can expect the protests to come back once the waters have receded. But the momentum will no longer be the same. Furthermore, with the Euro football matches about to kick off, there will be further competition for media space. In addition, we will hear a number of voices calling for restraint during the championship. The government should take advantage of this quieter period to better communicate its policies and their context. That has to be done with a different kind of skills, in a more conciliatory and patient tone, not with the intransigent way of speaking we have seen the Prime Minister making use of. 

Brussels diverse ethnic mix

Some statistical figures want us to believe that one in four residents of Brussels follow the Muslim faith. This is a very current subject, as one can imagine, after this week´s bombings. A number of people cannot think about these events without linking them to the Muslim presence in the city, particularly to the Muslim youth. It is of course unfair. But some communities have reached a share of the total population that makes them powerful components of the city tissue. And that has an impact on the human landscape we see in the streets of certain areas, as it has also a bearing on the behaviour of some teenagers in the schools where they form the majority of the students.

These are new societal developments that need to be properly researched. The social scientists in city universities should indeed spend more time on these matters. There aren´t enough academic studies on this changing social environment and its short and long term implications. And as a result, what we know about the diverse communities is based on anecdotal evidence, on personal stories and media reports. It is now urgent to go much further in our knowledge of the city´s cultures and ethnicity. That is for sure one of the conclusions we should draw this week. 

Trump and the others: what´s happening?

The challenge I have been confronted with today is very clear: how can we explain the wave of popularity on which Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Jeremy Corbyn are riding?

Not long ago, people like them and others similar would be looked at as oddities at the margins of the political spectrum. Their support would have been peanuts. Now, they are mainstream leaders and, at least in the case of Trump, not too far from getting to a position of real power. And they have caught us by surprise. 

What does it say of the social environment in our Western societies?

This is a critical question. It calls for a very serious debate. It´s not enough to say they are mere populists. That is a very incomplete explanation.