The drifting United States

The US is in crisis and I feel deeply sorry for the many friends I have in that great country. It continues to be deeply affected by the coronavirus pandemic, more than 100,000 lives have been lost and millions of people are without a job. Now, there are demonstrations and anger in many cities in response to police brutality and racism. The African-Americans are the main target of the racist attitudes we can easily notice within the police forces and in some segments of society. But the key problem resides in the political leadership of the country. President Donald Trump is a man that stirs up conflict and social disharmony. His approach to power is based on antagonising part of the American society. It is the politics of the hatred and rejection, splitting the citizens in two clear-cut groups: the supporters and those that he sees as enemies. At a time the country needs solidarity and unity of purpose, President Trump brings in discord and resentment. Seen from this side of the ocean, that is the most direct route to a deeper national disaster. And we can only be extremely worried because the US are the most powerful nation on earth. It cannot be adrift, rudderless.

Hong Kong: the politics of escalation

The Hong Kong political crisis calls for a deep analysis. It raises many questions. What is happening in the city for several months now is unique and a major challenge to President Xi Jinping’s authority. The population in Mainland China is not properly informed about the events. But I am told that the younger professionals in key Chinese cities are particularly interested in what is taking place in Hong Kong. To get a better picture, they are looking for alternative sources of information. And they are able to get to them, notwithstanding the extreme control the authorities try to impose on access to information. A new narrative, different from the official one, is now circulating among the younger segments of society, those with higher levels of education. It is yet too early to assess how significant that can be. But what it is clear is that in Mainland China some people are now getting a strong message coming from the demonstrations in Hong Kong. That is, there are Chinese people that do not want to live under the dictatorship imposed by the Communist leaders. They are ready to fight for their freedom. The only dimension that is tarnishing the message is the violence that is also taking place. And the Communist leaders know that they can take advantage of such violence. But playing with violence is not a good political bet.

Boris and the crime agenda

As he stepped into his new job of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to recruit 20,000 additional police officers. That number matches the reduction of the police force in England and Wales since March 2010. Many do not find the police service attractive enough anymore, if one considers pay, working hours, duress and the level of risk. And England and Wales have seen the crime rates explode during the last years. London and many other cities are no longer safe places. This remains a major failure of the recent government.

If the new Prime Minister manages to change the security situation, he would have collected a major political prize. If I were in his shoes, I would spend a good deal of my time trying to address the issue. There, as in any other country, the citizen’s safety should be a priority. The citizens want to see the government committed to such task.

This could be a central theme of the future electoral campaign that very soon Boris Johnson will be compelled to call. He wants to leave the EU by 31 October, to take the steam out of the Farage Brexit Party. And then, as soon as he is out, call for fresh elections. But he might have to dissolve the Parliament before 31 October, if the opposition to a No Deal is larger than his own supporters. In any case, elections are in the horizon. Besides Brexit, it seems that security might be the big theme. The only problem is that a No Deal Brexit – and we are now very close to that option – will disrupt so many aspects of the British life that he might be consumed during the electoral campaign by those issues and unable to deal with the security crisis that is going on.

Boris Johnson has interesting times ahead of him. I am not entirely sure he will be able to cope.

No to public disorder

The French National Assembly is debating a new law drafted to address the issue of violence during public demonstrations. It’s known as the “anti-casseurs law”. “Casseur” is the name given to anyone who breaks or wrecks things. The new piece of legislation aims at preventing the destruction of public and private property by hooligans and other ruffians, people that take advantage of legitimate manifestations to create hell.

In France, a number of politicians and intellectuals see this new law as restricting the freedom to demonstrate. But the fact of the matter is that fringe groups are systematically taking advantage of genuine street protesters to behave destructively. That cannot be accepted. Law and order in public places must be kept. If not, we are creating the conditions for extreme-right movements to ride on chaos and gain political space. The democratic values, in France and elsewhere in our part of the world, require a firm hand when dealing with violence and looting. Anarchy, if untamed, leads to dictatorship.

My reading of the G20 summit (2017)

On the recent G20, the negative issues on the table, either openly or coated in diplomatic words, could be summarised as follows:

- The risks linked to international uncontrolled massive migrations;

- The US withdrawal from the Paris accord on Climate Change

- New trends towards trade protectionism

- The attempts to side-line key international organisations, including the UN, the WTO and the Human Rights Council.

The positives, as I see them:

- Establishment of a new fund, to be administered by the WB, to promote the entrepreneurship of African women; USD 325 million.

- The review of steel overcapacity issue and the recommendation that a plan of action should be prepared by Nov. 2017 to address this most divisive economic and trade issue.

- More coordination on the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.

- The leaders have shown they want to find a common ground on a number of issues.

On the burkini

Supporting the ban of the “burkini” in some French beaches sends a very strong political message, right from the top, as the Prime Minister himself has come out in favour of the prohibition: the French Muslims are expected to do much more in terms of integration in the host culture. There is the sentiment, in many quarters of the population, that the immigrants are not willing to accept the French way of life and more, that they are now engaged in a campaign to change the national culture and the behavioural norms.

This is also a very complex message. Behind it, I see a growing exasperation towards the Muslim population. Such trend can lead to serious conflicts. France seems to be in a path leading towards confrontation and greater social instability. If that comes to happen then we can say that the terrorists have managed to achieve two major goals: social destabilisation and diversion of public attention to matters that should not occupy the centre of the political attention. 

Mad people

Yesterday I wrote about social research linked to ethnicity in a city like Brussels. Today I should add a suggestion to be considered by those who look at psychological issues. I think it is also time to do some very serious research about the reasons, the psychological disturbances that lead a fellow to self-destruction and mass killings. It is important to understand that kind of deep mental disorder and maybe look at ways of preventing it of getting to the extreme. It will be another way of combatting terror.

Hate or madness?

It is indeed too early to jump to conclusions but the mass killings in San Bernardino, California, raise a number of very worrisome questions. And these are not just about the access to weapons in the US. They would certainly be related to the growing culture of hatred we see taking roots in our societies. Is it so, or are dealing with another isolated drama? 

Celebrating the Pope in Bangui

The visit of Pope Francis to Bangui should be highly commended. He took the right decision, notwithstanding all the advice he got, from different countries and institutions, against such a visit on grounds of security. He has shown that leaders ought to be brave. That´s what people expect from leaders. He has also sent the message that conflicts, even very dramatic crisis like the one the Central African Republic experienced during the last two or three years, can only be solved if national efforts are supported by the international community. And that should be the case in CAR.

It was also very sad to see that the media keeps referring to religion and religious differences as the causes of violence in the country. The issue is much deeper. Religion is just a tag, an identification of sides in conflict. The true issues have to do with migrations into the country of pastoralists from much further North, deforestation and climate change, threats to traditional farming, livelihoods, and chaotic urbanization. And on top of all that, very low level leaders for decades, very often with the protection of political elites from Europe.

My fear is that once Pope Francis has left Bangui the country will fall back into the dark well of forgetfulness. It has been in that realm for so long. 

Young radicals for political reasons

Malek Boutih is a French Member of the National Assembly. His family roots can be found in North Africa and in the Islam. 

At the request of Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister of France, Boutih as looked at the radicalisation of the French youth. After four months of interviews and consultations, he has just issued his report. He called it “Géneration Radicale” and indeed the key point he makes is that many among the French youth are indeed attracted by a radical approach to politics and social engagement. Boutih´s main conclusion is that the extremism the young people espouse is basically a political response – and not a religious option. The extremists see no room for them in the French society, have no hope of a better life, feel they do not belong –notwithstanding they are second or third generation French nationals, as children and grandchildren of North African former immigrants – and then they look elsewhere. They end up by seeing violence as a means to be heard and a way of gaining the protagonism that an European society will never afford them.

The report is worth noting. And the key reading is that Western European societies have to be prepared to respond, in a comprehensive, multifaceted manner to the radical challenge. This is not a temporary problem. It is something that has now deep roots in our societies. It requires top attention.

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.

Egypt's future can only be built on compromise

Following the dramatic situation that has developed in Egypt, the EU and the US are struggling to issue “politically correct” statements. If you read what the European capitals have published about the events or listen to President Obama’s commentary, you realise that everyone wants to condemn the violence and, at the same time, avoid any words that might undermine the authority of the Egyptian military. This is an impossible exercise of balancing.

In the meantime, it is also impossible to be optimistic about Egypt’s foreseeable future.  Violence on both sides has gone too far and that makes the adoption of sensible positions much more difficult. Both camps seem to bet on confrontation and force, in a country that is only viable if based on compromise. And that, for me, is the key message the world should pass on to Cairo. 

On conflicts

Today’s conflicts are complex and asymmetric, thus no crisis can be resolved through a linear approach, with a single silver bullet. Complexity calls for multidimensional responses that should combine military, political and civil instruments. But there is an additional challenge when there are multiple actors responding to a conflict: the coherence of the diverse interventions. Coherence is, very often, missing. Also frequently missing is a clear understanding of the political economy of each conflict. What are the economic and business interests that drive a given conflict? From diamonds to columbite-tantalite (Coltan, as it is known in simpler terms), from opium to khat,  from weapons smuggling to access to water and grazing land - the economics of conflict are key determinants and need to be clearly identified.