Opinion texts must be short and direct

I said before that brevity is a sign of intelligence. And I am still convinced that is the case. The problem is that I have a few friends who are highly intelligent but think that a long text, with many words and shooting in several directions, is what is expected from an intellectual. How can I change their minds? I try to tell them that there is very little patience for meandering texts of opinion. But they don’t believe me. And they keep copying and pasting their ideas every time they produce a new piece.

My friend gets special treatment

It is a serious mistake to follow double standards when you are leading a country. You cannot be exacting for some and permissive for others, particularly when it is a political friend that is overstepping the red line. That fundamentally undermines the leader’s credibility. Once lost, it is not easy to recuperate.

President Trump's smart press conference

President Trump’s press conference about the coronavirus pandemic was a smart move. It was about big money, resources to fight the virus, and to show an alliance between his office and key pharmaceutical corporations. He said the usual banalities about the extraordinary job he is performing, attacked the Europeans and the Chinese, stated the populist slogans that are his banners, and so on. That was the painful part of the show. But the expressions of support he got from the medical specialists and the corporations gave the impression to the middle-of-the-road American Joe and Josephine that the President is mobilising every effort and his directing the campaign. That is a vote gainer and it is also appreciated by the markets. Not bad, when we know that a good deal of this challenge has to be fought at the level of the public opinion.

Contain, contain, contain

Today’s word is containment. Every government should ask themselves what they can do to more efficiently contain the epidemic. That must be the priority. But containment is not just about the disease. It is a lot, a great deal, about the disease. Indeed. But is also about the panic and the epidemic’s impact on key sectors of the world’s economy.

More about the Gilets Jaunes

Another Saturday, another day of rallies for the Gilets Jaunes in France. This is going on since November 2018, almost six months ago. It has been an incredibly long protest movement.

It is true that today’s mobilisation was much weaker than the previous ones. But people were still on the streets, in Paris, Bordeaux and elsewhere. And the forecast is that the rallies will continue. At least until the end of May, when the European elections will be held.

It is not easy to draw all the lessons from the Gilets Jaunes. President Macron has tried to respond to some of the grievances. However, for some, the President’s announcements were not good enough. He himself is seen by those who continue to walk the streets as the target that must be shot down.

That position will not change.

But it is important for the President to be responsive to some of complaints, but also be firm and determined to modernise the French society. It is equally vital he sends the message that public chaos and law-breaking will be seriously punished. Peaceful demonstrations, yes. Looting and destruction, no.

Furthermore, it will be a mistake to approach the Gilets Jaunes from an elitist perspective. Or from a higher-class platform. They are citizens like everyone else. And they should be treated with respect, as long as they remain within the bounds of the law and the rules of civility. I have seen some intellectuals trying to belittle the Gilets Jaunes. In my opinion, such position is not helpful.

As it is not correct to romanticise or glamorise them, as some artists and people from the creative arts have tried to do today, in the Libération newspaper. Their statement is a hotchpotch of idealism, naivety and populism. It does not take the debate any further. It adds nothing to a better understanding of the social issues and frustrations some people are confronted with.

The Gilets Jaunes simply represent a social group that needs attention, firmness but also the building of some bridges.  

A weaker Emmanuel Macron

President Macron is losing direction when it comes to France’s domestic politics. I real think that’s a major issue, both for the French and for all of us, in the EU.

His press conference of this week was supposed to respond to many months of street protests led by the Gilets Jaunes and to draw lessons from the national debate the President had promoted throughout the country on several key topics. Under the national debate, hundreds of public meetings and town halls had been organised. Emmanuel Macron himself chaired some of the gatherings.

The press event has shown that the President has left behind some important political commitments he had made during the electoral fight. One of the most important has to do with the reform of the French state administration. The country needs to adjust the administrative machinery to the new needs of the citizens and, at the same time, rationalise the costs. The last time France had a balanced public budget was 45 years ago, in 1974. Since then, the official administration is living well beyond the means the economy would allow. The country is deeply in debt. Public debt is today around 2,200 billion Euros. This is unacceptable and it will have a serious impact on future generations. Instead of cutting unnecessary expenditures, President Macron announced new measures that will increase public spending and, sooner or later, will have to be translated into new taxes.

He has also been unable to deal with the sustainability of the national pension system. The French, like all of us, are living longer. But, for demagogic reasons, the pension age remains at 62. He should have increased that ceiling. In a related matter, there is a need to review the working week, which is currently capped at 35 hours. This has not been addressed.

President Macron comes out of all this much weaker. He has not been able to appease the Gilets Jaunes. And he is now seen by many in France as just another Hollande, a younger version of the last President. But more arrogant, which is something that is also bringing him down. His communication style is not the best in terms of connecting with people and the media. 

I really hope he will be able to recover from the current predicament. He has three more years to go.

Politics as currently played

I rarely write about religion. I am even tempted to say I never write about the matter. But being prudent by nature, let me use the word “rarely”. Or let me say it differently: to me is clear I avoid commenting on religious matters.

As a regular blogger, both in English and Portuguese, and when for many years I wrote as a columnist, politics is my theme.  And now, as I watch the political debate and the fights associated with it, I am getting the impression that for many people partisan politics has become like an act of faith.

Politics today seems to be much closer to religious beliefs, and the traditional intolerance that goes with them, than to social and economic choices. There is plenty of emotion and very little rationality. That has an obvious impact on the discourse of public figures that want to be successful in politics. They go for the soul, not for the mind.

Who should be considered the model politician in 2015?

Close to the end of the year, I ask myself who should be considered the model politician in 2015.

I have a small number of names in mind. And I realise how much this list is influenced by the big global TV channels. The faces we see more often on those screens have a greater chance of being considered the top players. We tend to forget that some of these politicians produce a lot of smoke and know how to play the mirrors game. But in the end, they had very little impact in terms of improving people´s lives. They might have made things even more complicated.

Who to choose then? 

Late thoughts

In democratic politics, success is about votes. The more you get the more successful you are. There is no other measure as it is very difficult to assess the theoretical merit of ideas and political proposals. Therefore, if you get involved in politics you should aim at getting as much support as possible. There is no other way out.

I might disagree with your approaches to public matters. But you get more votes than I, I have to accept that you are in charge. Being in charge does not mean however that you are right. It means you have been able to bring on board, to your side, a good number of people. And that is the basis of political legitimacy. And it gives you the authority to be in charge. 

More on leadership

I have spent the last days reflecting about political leadership in the European context. There is a strong feeling, in many quarters, that leadership is currently in short supply. I am not sure. What seems to be missing is wise political leadership combined with courage to say it as it is. A leader cannot be just the echo of popular opinions. We tend to confuse representativeness and democracy with being like everybody else. The representative of the people brings something else to the common views. His or her role is to provide balance to the views expressed by the loudest members of society, to make the synthesis of the majority opinion and at the same time combining it with the protection of the minority opinion. That is about guiding and building confidence. 

Clinton´s Hitler

Madness is a key ingredient in the making of a political leader. The crazier one is the greater are the chances of getting in charge. We tend to let mad people go ahead with their folly and they end up in positions of power.

Today´s candidates to top the crazies and dreamers lists look like stranger idiots from the cold. These are dangerous times.

This is also a very regrettable trend.

Mrs Clinton felt she should joint this club. And to be sure she would be accepted in the inner circle, she came to the fore and compared Hitler with the Russian leader. A very unfortunate comparison. But it can certainly bring a good handful of votes. And in politics that´s much more important than being reasonable and moderate. 

Individualism is a key value of today´s world

The political leaders seem to have lost control, in several countries, of their national security apparatus.

The espionage saga is still very much unfolding. It is certainly undermining President Obama´s international prestige. And that´s a pity, for many reasons. But it will end up by undermining other leaders ‘reputations as well, I fear.

It is quite obviously that the EU leaders are in hot water: either they were not aware of their services´ activities, or they are trying to deceive us. In any case, it is not good news. If they were not aware, that means they can easily be fooled. I would not be surprised, in some cases.

On the other hand, if they are trying to mislead the public opinion about what they really knew and about their hidden intentions, they are missing two important points: people have presently more access to information than ever and they will end up by knowing what is going on; secondly, people´s privacy is a key issue today as it was yesterday; one should not confuse participation in social networks with willingness to disclose every aspect of one´s life. Privacy remains a very valued feature of today´s life. It is actually linked to individualism, a key dimension of the modern times. 

Rajoy's plot

The noise made by Madrid around Gibraltar in the last few days is a manoeuvre, by the embattled Prime Minister of Spain, to divert people’s attention from the political mess in which he dug himself in.

Globalization needs public debate

As the discussions on a free trade agreement with the US get – painfully – off the ground, I notice growing opposition in many segments of the EU public opinion against anything that might look like opening new doors to globalization. It is not just the workers’ movements, or the small entrepreneurs, or people from the left or the centre-left. The opposition also comes from heads of larger firms and others that know the world and have very much benefitted from the opening of the borders. It is also now the key feature within the nationalist groups.

The debate about globalization has lost objectivity. Everything is now about fears, vested interests, and protection from outside competition.  Those who should explain the advantages of a more open world market and how to operate in tomorrow’s global economy have preferred to remain silent. To do so is to give space to all kinds of populist views and to encourage retrograde politics to take over. It is, in my opinion, a dangerous withdrawal.  

Diversions and maneuvers

Manipulation of public opinion is one the oldest tactics in the bag of tricks of secret services, isn't it? 

A view of Chechnya

I participated in a discussion about financing development co-operation this morning. Friends of Europe, an NGO close to the European Commission, sponsored the discussion.

As it is often the case, these discussions are too ambitious in terms of the scope and the number of speakers and too light when it comes to depth and substance. The organisers tend to invite a large number of panellists. That leaves little time for each one of them and even less for an exchange with the participants. It would be much better to have just a couple of keynote speakers, who could then speak extensively about their ideas and experience.

I ended up talking to the fellow seated next to me. I found out he has been in Belgium for about ten years, after fleeing civil conflict in Chechnya. And also that he and his community feel much stressed after the events of Boston.  Many people look at them now as potential terrorists. There is suspicion in the air. And all over the place the secret polices have decided to spend a bit of their free time monitoring these refugees. It is, he told me, as if they had found a pretty good reason to keep themselves busy.

Well, image is everything, as some people like to say. But image can be deeply unfair. 

Leaders understand the public mood

As I observe what is going on in some European countries, I have to recognise I do not understand Prime Ministers who are afraid of reshuffling the composition of their Cabinet.  It is a serious leadership weakness. It gives the impression the leader is trapped by his or her direct collaborators and has no real power to change ministers and bring in new blood.

It also sends a very strong negative signal of stubbornness, inability to adjust to new political circumstances.  For the voters, it looks like the leader is just ignoring the way the public opinion has evolved since Cabinet has been put together. 

Europe without Defence

The debate at Madariaga Foundation in Brussels today was about the “American Disengagement” from Europe’s defence.  It attracted a large crowd. Obviously, there is a clientele for defence issues in Brussels, among the active and retired bureaucrats of the different institutions, universities and think tanks, embassies, and the other usual suspects.

It was interesting to notice that this type of crowd tend to forget the citizens, the street’s opinions. There was no reference, for instance, to the fact that the military establishments in all the European countries have lost a critical war: the people’s support. The public opinion is no longer with them, does not understand the role of the armed forces in today’s Europe. This has led to serious budgetary cuts all over the Continent. In some big countries, such as Italy and Spain, the resource allocation to defence is today 0.84% and 0.65% of GDP respectively, instead of at least 2%.