Venezuela needs a credible mediation process

There are a few crisis situations in the world that must be seen as requiring urgent attention. Venezuela is certainly one of them. And, in terms of response, mediation is the word. It is necessary to find a mediation mechanism that could be accepted by both sides, meaning the Maduro camp and the Guaidó supporters.

Nicolás Maduro has asked the Pope to lead such mediation. It is true that the Catholic Church could play a facilitating role. But the other side has not expressed the same kind of appeal. Basically, they believe that Maduro´s presidency is not legitimate and, therefore, he must go without any concession being made. That position should be helped to evolve as rapidly as possible.

The United Nations could also be approached. Yet, I think Maduro sees the UN as too close to the Western interests. In the circumstances, the UN Secretary-General should take the initiative and be in personal contact with both leaders. The UN has a lot of experienced people in the field of mediation. And it could also work closely with the Vatican and offer a join platform for negotiations. Countries in the EU should send a message about the UN’s potential.

It’s equally critical that Maduro understands that there is a way forward for him and his family. The other side must leave a gate open for a dignified solution. It’s a mistake to try to push Maduro and his camp against the wall. That would make any bridging effort fail and it could easily bring mass violence instead a negotiated solution.

The mediation agenda would be defined by the parties. That’s how it should be. But I can guess it would certainly include issues such as the shape of the political transition, who would chair it, the organization of credible elections, the role of the armed forces and the police, as well as amnesty matters.

Guterres has become stronger

At the end of today´s round in the UN Security Council, António Guterres came out on top as it had occurred during the past three votes. He is now by far the strongest candidate for the job of UN Secretary-General. Out of the 15 countries in the Council, we see that 12 member states do encourage him to remain on the race. Only 2 countries discourage him. One of these is certainly New Zealand, as they have their one candidate on the race. It is impossible to guess which other country is discouraging him. At this stage, the key votes are very tactical and they can easily change as the diplomatic relations move forward,

Actually, a lot of diplomatic moves can be expected in the next two weeks. From all of the candidates, with the exception of last two in today´s poll -- Christiana Figueres and Natalia Gherman. They seem to be out of this race. And the horse trading has already started with Susana Malcorra. She has just promised the British she will be accommodating their views regarding the Malvinas/Falkland Islands. She announced that commercial flights will be reestablished between Argentina, her country, and the Islands. And that her government is ready to join the British in the offshore oil exploration in the area.

All that is fair game. But there is no doubt that for her and for the other candidates to compete against Guterres is an uphill struggle. 

The UN race is moving on

Today´s straw poll in the Security Council should be seen as an important step towards the election of the next UN Secretary-General. One should see several candidates leaving the race in the very near future. Those with a good number of “discourage” votes have very few motives to stay on. Some of those negative votes might come from permanent members and that would mean no, later in the day.

In the circumstances, Antonio Guterres seems to be a solid contender. He got 12 votes of encouragement and no vote advising him to go. That would make it less tempting for new names to step in. It´s getting a bit late, after today´s results. That´s the message those supporting Guterres´s candidacy should keep stressing. They have to discourage others from joining the race. 

But he also needs to watch carefully two existing candidates: Danilo Turk, the former President of Slovenia, and Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian that heads UNESCO. She remains the woman that can make it. That is a good rallying point in her favour. And Turk has some serious support within the Council.

But both Turk and Bokova have adverse votes. And that might be too difficult for them to overcome. That´s their major unknown at this stage. 

The UN cannot remain silent about the Mediterranean tragedies

Pope Francis has been very clear about the immigration issue, particularly the massive loss of life and the incredible human costs of the illegal crossings of the Mediterranean Sea. We might disagree with the implicit policy proposals that one can guess behind his words, but we have to recognise that he has occupied the moral ground and been a loud voice in a sea of political silences.

We would like to hear some voices from the UN side as well. Not just the spokespersons of agency A or B, but people in leadership positions. They should come up and speak. Make proposals, suggest policy avenues, and offer their goodwill services. Some of them, like the Secretary-General or the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, are at the end of their mandates. That should give them more space to call a spade a spade and be daring.