Mass immigration as a negotiating tool

Earlier in the day, I was explaining to a local group of futurists that I see Morocco playing little Turkey, on their side of the Mediterranean Sea. They have learned from the Turkish how masses of migrants can be manipulated to put pressure on the European countries. It is happening on the Greek borders, it will be repeated in Libya, now that Erdogan’s troops and armed men are getting stronger in Tripoli and its surroundings. These are the two main migratory routes, and both are now under Turkish control. Is there a better way to be in a robust position when negotiating with the European Union?

The Moroccan are beginning to do the same with Spain and even with Portugal, I guess. In the last couple of months, groups of young men coming from Morocco have arrived by sea at the Southern Portuguese region of Algarve. It is a long sea crossing for their small boats. It is an impossible journey with such fragile vessels. My suspicion is that they get some help from powerful syndicates on the Moroccan shores and that is done under the blind eye of the authorities. Their sponsors might bring them closer to the Portuguese coastline and then let them complete the trip and be perceived as desperate migrants.

This flow has the potential to get bigger. To become route number three for the migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and even from elsewhere.

On the European side, it is about time to start looking at it with greater attention. And, at the same time, to initiate a serious talk with the government in Rabat.

The Rohingya refugees need our support

The EU has no clear approach towards the “boat people”, the illegal immigrants that come across the Mediterranean Sea. The same should not be said about Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, when it comes to their “boat people”. These migrants are displaced populations coming from Myanmar. Many of them are from the Rohingya ethnic group, a marginalised Muslim population that lives in the Rakhine State of Myanmar, a coastal area near Bangladesh. In Southeast Asia the policy is clear: repair their boat, give them some food and water and push them to the sea. The results are shocking, of course. The images show the extreme misery of men, women and children, they capture distressing faces of punishing suffering.

We might criticise the European confused policy. But we should be loud and clear in our condemnation of the cruelty the Southeast nations are showing towards the Rohingya. And we should also add that the Rohingya meet all the criteria that define a refugee population. They should therefore be treated as such.

Soldiers and Police

I have just been invited to address a high level (ministerial) meeting on the security threats in the Sahel Region. 

The initiative is a good one, because the Sahel has an impact on North Africa and Europe and the meeting brings people from those two sides of the Mediterranean together. But the interesting thing is that the meeting is called by defence leaders. The military are indeed looking at the issue.

But my message to them will be, among other things, a very clear one: these matters call for a close cooperation between the military and the police establishments. They are an opportunity for both sides to work together and show they can cooperate. 

The absence of an immigration policy

One could again notice in the recent days that the EU has no common policy on immigration. The states still look at the issue as a national matter and not as a common challenge. The resources made available to FRONTEX, the agency charged with the EU border policing are clearly insufficient. Moreover, the leaders do not take a comprehensive approach and deal with the issue with one tool only - border control - when it is clear that other measures are necessary. Without a combination of approaches, combining policing with diplomacy, development assistance, strategic communications, and an integration policy, we will continue to see the misery boats crossing the Mediterranean in search of the next tragedy.