Mass immigration as a negotiating tool

Earlier in the day, I was explaining to a local group of futurists that I see Morocco playing little Turkey, on their side of the Mediterranean Sea. They have learned from the Turkish how masses of migrants can be manipulated to put pressure on the European countries. It is happening on the Greek borders, it will be repeated in Libya, now that Erdogan’s troops and armed men are getting stronger in Tripoli and its surroundings. These are the two main migratory routes, and both are now under Turkish control. Is there a better way to be in a robust position when negotiating with the European Union?

The Moroccan are beginning to do the same with Spain and even with Portugal, I guess. In the last couple of months, groups of young men coming from Morocco have arrived by sea at the Southern Portuguese region of Algarve. It is a long sea crossing for their small boats. It is an impossible journey with such fragile vessels. My suspicion is that they get some help from powerful syndicates on the Moroccan shores and that is done under the blind eye of the authorities. Their sponsors might bring them closer to the Portuguese coastline and then let them complete the trip and be perceived as desperate migrants.

This flow has the potential to get bigger. To become route number three for the migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and even from elsewhere.

On the European side, it is about time to start looking at it with greater attention. And, at the same time, to initiate a serious talk with the government in Rabat.

On mass migrations once again

Mass migrations are a new feature in the international relations list of collective challenges. They will remain in the list for a long time. As such, they require a comprehensive response and the engagement of all the key players, including the EU States and Africa.

 We, in Europe, cannot see the matter as an Italian or Greek problem, we cannot keep a country-based perspective. This must be a shared problem. We should also avoid a simplification of the matter and say this will be solved when the Libyan crisis is over or the day Niger and other countries in the Sahel have a better control of their borders.

We should also realise that the responses can only be partial, as the pressure to move North will continue for a very long time.

But that does not prevent us from taking action now. People crossing into Europe have to be properly screened. Those who have genuine reasons to apply for asylum should be processed fast and given a chance to start a new life in one of the EU countries. Everybody else should be treated with greater scrutiny, including their work skills. In the end, most of them would have to be repatriated. 

Immigration: a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility

The numbers keep adding every day. They also make it obvious that there is no European strategy to deal with the migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea. The navy ships do their job, rescue the poor souls at sea and bring them to the shores. And after that, there is an empty policy space – a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility – with everybody else hoping the Italians will take care of the immense problem. 

Immigration into Europe is a very delicate matter

It would certainly be a serious mistake to simplify the immigration issue in today´s Europe. The illegal crossings of the Mediterranean Sea are a complex matter and do require serious ponderation. Any simplification of it would certainly be very attractive to many minds but it would also be a serious mistake. There are many dimensions that need to be taken into account when defining an approach to such a large movement of people. And the debate is not paying attention to them, I am afraid. 

Immigration: the pressure is on

The Foreign Ministers and other EU ministers met today to discuss the illegal crossings that constitute a daily human wave of despair coming from the Libyan shores. They called the meeting in the wake of the many deaths that have occurred these past few days.

I think we should recognise the merit of such a meeting. It is true there was no clear-cut decision but at least the matter is now on the agenda and it is recognised as an urgent issue that requires a multidimensional response.

And it also served to push the matter up, to the level of the heads of state and government. They will meet on Thursday on the subject. And let me be clear, in view of the gravity of the situation. Even if the measures that will be adopted at that summit could be seen as insufficient they will represent some progress when compared with the lack of clarity and action that has been the norm during the last year or so. 

Dying at sea, but invisible in the political capitals

Scores of desperate people drowned today at sea, when trying to cross the Mediterranean and enter the EU illegally. This is a recurrent drama that hardly gets the attention of the European public opinion. It´s no longer news, in many ways. And because it is not in the headlines any more, there is no real political attention that is given to the matter. Mass illegal immigration across the Mediterranean Sea, a daily occurrence, and the human tragedies associated with it, has become politically invisible. It is a major problem, it would require a clear-cut approach, but our leaders feel content the question is not burning on their desks.

That´s the way leadership is practised at present in our corner of the Earth.  

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

Libya as a top prority for the French in 2014

The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, stated yesterday in Monaco, at the World Policy Conference annual meeting, that Libya will be his country´s political priority for 2014 in the international arena.

This is a good choice. Libya is in a big mess and needs strong support to be able to re-establish law and order and control the many armed groups that are scattered throughout the country. If this happens it will have a very positive impact on the domestic democratization process as well as on the Sahel and North Africa regions.

The demise of Kaddafi open many Pandora boxes. It created major threats to peace and stability. It is now time to bring the genies back into their bottles and firmly lock them inside.

My hope is that France would be able to bring other countries on board in an alliance to re-build Libya. It is not easy, as EU states are more divided than ever and can´t agree on a common approach on North Africa. But within the EU there are enough governments that would accept that the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea is indeed a priority matter. 

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests.