2025: My views and my contribution to the debate

 10 January 2025

A year that calls for common sense, clarity and a lot of courage

Victor Angelo

 

In this first text of the new year, I seek to share some of my vision on the major global challenges that we will have to face in the next twelve months. Some of these challenges come as a continuation of the immense political difficulties that marked the international scene in 2024. Their trajectory in 2025 appears to continue in the direction of worsening. I see the stakes on moderation and peace as extremely complex and difficult, but absolutely necessary.

Added to these concerns are new problems, among which the following stand out: 1) the inequities and madness that the Donald Trump/Elon Musk Administration will introduce into international relations; 2) the acceleration of the use of Artificial Intelligence to respond to the designs and control of the strategic agenda by various imperialisms; and 3) access to power in several Western democracies, and elsewhere, by ultra-reactionary parties inspired by Nazis, fascists or simply xenophobic influences. Austria was, this week, the most recent example of this trend, that is, of the shift in public opinion towards populism and extremist nationalism. Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right FPÖ party (symbolically called the National Social Party, an appellation inspired by the party of a certain Adolf Hitler), was invited to form a government.

This kind of perspective requires clear and courageous ambitions. Most of our leaders talk a lot, but their statements are vague, even incomprehensible in some cases. They do not understand the current context, nor can they imagine the future. They use the media to sell us the past and to maintain the illusions on which their power is based. It is up to us to combat these attitudes, but it is not easy. Access to the market for realistic and humanist ideas is increasingly narrow. Just look at who has access to airtime to understand how difficult it is to see on any screen who has the courage to dismantle the illusory contexts that serve as a basis of support for the bosses of the main political parties or for the leaders of some regional or global powers.

Anyone who has influence and authority should have at least five major ambitions.

First, peace. It's 2025, not the past. The great powers, but also each one of us, must abandon the idea that problems can be resolved by force of arms and ultimatums. With technological advances, wars only serve to cause the cruellest human suffering.

Second, the preservation of universal values. International law has made enormous progress since 1945. Its principles must be respected. With balance, equally, whether it is country A or B. Double standards lead to the discredit of universal ethics.

Third, respect for the life and fundamental rights of each person. This is the issue that receives the most emphasis when talking to the inhabitants of the most forgotten areas of the world, in the regions where many of the conflicts occur.

Fourth, reduce the underdevelopment gap. After several years of success, we are now moving in the opposite direction. The increase in economic and social disparities is, on the one hand, a source of tension, instability, hostility towards more developed countries, uncontrolled migration and environmental deterioration. On the other hand, it generates racism, xenophobia, contempt and indifference towards the poverty of many.

Fifth, contribute to the revival of the political role of the UN. I do not want to enter the debate about the Secretary-General's room for manoeuvre. But I cannot help but remember the importance of the United Nations Charter. We must insist, repeatedly, on absolute respect for the principles defined there.

The defence of Europe's democracies will certainly be a central issue in 2025. However, reducing the issue to the expansion of our defence industries is a mistake. It is also unrealistic and destabilizing to demand spending that would represent 5% of each State's GDP out of hand. The real challenge is to be able to build a coherent and shared European defence policy, which recognises the main dangers and considers, in a consensual manner, the possible contribution of each country.

This is essentially a political issue. There will be States whose current leaders will feel closer to the enemy than to our regimes of freedom. This year’s debate cannot ignore this reality. We will have to define a common position towards these individuals. There is another key question: to review and update the relations between the US and other NATO members – a subject that deserves a very detailed reflection at the appropriate time.

Looking for a serious partnership: Europe and Africa

Europe and Africa: a very complex relationship

Victor Ângelo

 

The sixth summit between the European Union and the African Union started yesterday and continues today in Brussels. I take the opportunity to share some personal thoughts on the relationship between Europe and a continent that has absorbed more than three decades of my professional life, including as Director for Africa of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) operations.

A chessboard that covers 82 countries and around 1.7 billion people can only be quite complex. This complexity is compounded by the imbalances that history has caused and the disparities in development that exist between the two continents. Therefore, establishing partnerships of equals must be the absolute priority for both parties. This is an extremely sensitive issue. European leaders have not always shown sufficient political tact. There is still a logic that sees donors on one side and needy on the other. Or, worse still, that sees Africa as an area of instability, which, combined with unparalleled demographic pressure, will eventually lead to mass migrations to the EU. For those who think like this, Africa appears as a money drain and a threat.

The summit, scheduled for 2020, has been repeatedly postponed because of the pandemic. Now it is being held under the co-presidency of France and Senegal, because they are currently in charge of their respective regions. It is not the best coincidence. There is now an anti-French feeling in West and Central Africa. And the Senegalese president, Macky Sall, and even Dakar and its elite, are seen as the Parisians of sub-Saharan Africa. This has given rise to talk that this is yet another Elysée-inspired summit. Moreover, the impression has been given that not enough attention has been paid during the preparatory work to the concerns of the Anglophone and Lusophone countries.

The truth is that the African continent is very diverse. Each sub-region has specific characteristics and even deep-rooted prejudices towards the others. It is enough to listen, as I have often heard, to what a Southern African politician says about the situation in certain West or Central African states to understand that the façade hides many cracks.

Stability and prosperity sum up the aspirations of the participants.

Stability requires competent governance, in tune with the wishes of the people and capable of protecting their security and rights. This is an area which requires a frank dialogue between the partners to define everyone's responsibilities. Drawing up plans in Brussels and then landing to implement them in the Sahel, or elsewhere, ends up leading to the rejection of these initiatives and leaves room for slippage, as is happening in Mali and the Central African Republic. Nor can one accept a military junta in Chad and say no to another in Burkina Faso, for example. Such ambiguities only serve to discredit cooperation from Europe. Moreover, in the fight against terrorism it is imperative to obtain visible results without delay. The continuing deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel and beyond calls for an analysis of the reasons for failure and, on the basis of lessons learned, a different approach.

Prosperity must rest on five pillars. First, the fight against corruption. Second, the electrification of the continent. Brussels tells us that 50% of Africa's population has no access to electricity. That figure is obviously underestimated. We all know that electricity grids only work when they work, meaning that the cuts are longer than the supply. Third, in a green revolution, which modernises agriculture and livestock. Fourth, industrialisation, local processing of raw materials and agricultural products. Fifth, in the effective abolition of customs barriers between African countries. Trade between these countries represents no more than 15% of the continent's foreign trade. This is far too little.

So let us wait for the results of the summit. And to battle on with optimism.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 18 February 2022)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bamako sunset

Thanks to a friend and the digital technology, I could watch the sun setting below the horizon of Bamako, the capital of Mali. The Niger River reflected the last rays of light of the day and sent me a message of beauty, tranquillity and vastness. Not far, the image showed one the arteries of the city, as busy as it is customary on a Sunday end of the afternoon. We talked about the virus – five registered deaths so far in the country. But we know how difficult it is to record the true cause of death in a country like Mali. Fine. The important point, for me, was to learn that life goes on as usual in the city and elsewhere. The UN mission, and the embassies, are following the prevention protocols. But the ordinary Malian is focused on what keeps him busy every day: to find enough resources to buy food and other basic needs; and to worry about the security of his family and his own, especially in the central and northern regions of the country. And those concerns are there to stay. People have very little time for the virus, as they had no time for the legislative elections that took place last weekend. The turnout in Bamako was around 10%. That says a lot. And it reminds us that we might live in a global village, but some corners of that village spend their time just trying to survive, virus or no virus.

Brief note on the EU Global Strategy

In the future, the EU development cooperation policy cannot just be focused on governance, security and human rights. These three domains are certainly crucial. We need to see improvements in all of them. But we cannot ignore the food security challenges, the health needs, education, gender equality, energy and some critical infrastructure. They still required massive foreign aid. They are also essential to lift people out of poverty, including the future mothers of tomorrow. And to make sure people feel encouraged to remain in their native lands. A comprehensive view of development cannot just be reduced to one size fits all.

Fuels for development In Africa

My new research paper of energy and sustainable development in Africa is available at :

http://www.fuelfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Fuel-Africa_FINAL.pdf

This study, done in collaboration with Dr Kate McGuinness, was discussed in late September in New York at a breakfast organised as part of the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative.

The absence of an immigration policy

One could again notice in the recent days that the EU has no common policy on immigration. The states still look at the issue as a national matter and not as a common challenge. The resources made available to FRONTEX, the agency charged with the EU border policing are clearly insufficient. Moreover, the leaders do not take a comprehensive approach and deal with the issue with one tool only - border control - when it is clear that other measures are necessary. Without a combination of approaches, combining policing with diplomacy, development assistance, strategic communications, and an integration policy, we will continue to see the misery boats crossing the Mediterranean in search of the next tragedy. 

EU and India: a partnership that needs to be explored

The political and economic partnership between the EU and India deserves greater attention. The European leaders seem blind to the potential of such an alliance and how much it would weight on China.  China’s global interests would then be matched by a strong EU-India alliance.

I keep repeating that our leaders need to be much more strategic in the relations with India. The EU has a good representative in Delhi, that‘s not the problem.  The issue resides in the fact that our leaders are not investing enough in building a strong relationship with India. They are too concerned with trying to come to terms with China and its commercial and industrial expansion. They do not see the opportunities. 

UNDP and the interests of the private sector

UNDP, the UN Development Programme, is about to finalise its new policy on partnerships with private corporations and foundations. Initial indications tell us that the organization will not accept any kind of association with firms and institutions linked to the tobacco and arms industries.

This is certainly a good decision.

It will be interesting to find out if the exclusionary criteria will also include financial houses that make tonnes of money on speculative transactions as well as other companies that are known for their very limited respect for local communities or the environment. 

Obama's great speech

President Obama’s speech on the State of the Union is inspired by a progressive outlook and modernity. It is highly advisable to read it carefully. It is a great lesson on politics and public speech. The style is direct and conversational. It has a strong human touch, with several references to real people. And above all, it proposes a number of directions and this is the trademark of a leader: to set the ambition!

Its references to clean cars that will move on alternative fuels, not on oil, to women’s rights and full empowerment, to the need to stop the violence against women,  and also the observations about development co-operation are remarkable paragraphs in a statement that is full of extraordinary reflections.  

EU Budget: too long a period at a time of uncertainties

I should write about the EU budget 2014-2020, as approved today by the EU Council. And add that even if the total amount matters, what matters more is how money is allocated. How much money goes for the big issues that have a strategic impact over the future of Europe? That’s the key question.

And what are those issues?

First, those related to the economic disparities between different corners of the European space. How can we unite the Continent when some countries and regions are kept far behind in terms of development and the gap keeps increasing?

Second, investments in science and technological research. The future of Europe has to be built on a knowledge economy, not on steel and textiles. Unless, of course, if the textiles are at the sharp end of the creative industries, both in terms of design and advanced materials…

Third, funds and programmes for youth employment promotion, youth education for the jobs of the future, preparing a youth with a European mind-set and a global outlook.  

Fourth, internal security, including cyber-security, and security co-operation with the neighbours of the EU.

Fifth, a common external policy, including an effective development aid agenda and enough resources for humanitarian relief and response.

These are the budget lines we need to look at, as a matter of priority.

Having said that, I am also very concerned about a process that approves financial resources for a long period of time – seven years – when we live in a world that is changing rapidly. It is good to have a long term vision but it is better to have a system that is flexible and can be adjusted to respond to new challenges as they develop. I do not think the EU budgetary process is tailored for that. 

Going East

Copyright V.Angelo

My day in Sahel started very early. Trekking East, making sure that our presence brings stability and security to the area. It's a job for early birds, and a tough one, for that matter.

Just another woman

Copyright V. Angelo

Karme', small town in the middle of a drought-stricken plain, the Sunday market brings people together and gives them a sense of belonging.

Later in the day, one goes back to one's isolation, taking the roads the cattle and the small ruminants borrow, in search of water and grass.

The Children' s Goals

The implementation of the Millenium Development Goals will make a difference to the future of these children. They still believe in the world outside there.