Three men and the future of the European Union

The European Union on the road to collapse

Victor Ângelo

 

Hungary's Viktor Orbán, Poland's Jarosław Kaczyński and Turkey's Recep Erdoğan were once again recalled this week as three of the major threats to the continuity of the EU. The report now published by the European Commission about the rule of law in member countries highlights the first two. The crisis in Libya brings the third back into the picture. All of them are part of the daily concerns of those who want to build a cohesive Europe based on the values of democracy, tolerance, and cooperation.

The report confirms what was already known about the Hungarian Prime Minister. Orbán manipulates public opinion in his country, abuses power to reduce his opponents' scope for action as much as possible, and attacks the freedom of the press, the activities of civil society and academic autonomy. The suspicions of corruption in the awarding of public contracts to companies linked to his and the ruling party are based on very strong evidence. To further spice up an undemocratic and very opaque mess, accusations have now been made public of the secret services' use of the Pegasus computer application to spy on journalists and others who oppose their misrule. It's all that and not just the new law on homosexuality. But the man is cunning. He is reducing the conflict with Brussels to a dimension that is not even at stake - the protection of children and adolescents. And then he announces that there will be a national referendum on that issue, certainly skewed in his own way.

The fight against corruption and for justice to work well, especially its independence, are two fundamental aspects of the European project. It was the issue of justice that caused Poland to appear in large letters in the above-mentioned report. The party now in government, improperly called Law and Justice (PiS), led by the ultra-conservative Kaczyński, has done everything it can to subjugate the judiciary to political power and to ignore Brussels whenever it smells criticism. Thus, the chief justice, appointed by the hand of the PiS, does not want to recognise the primacy and authority of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The European Commission has given him until mid-August to apply two decisions of the European court, which reveals the existence of an open conflict between Brussels and Warsaw.

The policies pursued by the governments of these two countries affect the integrity of the Union and open the door for others to adopt similar behaviour. The fact that the presidency in this second semester is held by the Slovenian prime minister - a confused politician who sometimes looks at Orbán with some admiration - does not help matters.

Outside the EU's borders, Erdoğan remains a nightmare. To the conflicts related to Greece and Cyprus, add the growing Turkish presence in Libya. This country has enormous strategic importance as a departure point for illegal immigrants heading for Europe. Erdoğan already commands the gateways in the Eastern Mediterranean. His influence in Libya will allow him to control the flows on the central route. As a reaction, the EU is preparing the deployment of a military mission to Libya. The main motivation is to compete with Turkey on the ground. This is a mistake. Libya is an extremely complicated chess, where several countries are playing, including Russia. There is no clear political process, apart from a vague promise of elections at the end of the year. A military mission like the one being planned has a high probability of failure and endless bogging down in the dry quicksand of a fragmented country. The EU cannot lightly approve such an intervention. Meanwhile, Turkish freighters continue to pass in front of the beards of the European naval and air operation IRINI, which is supposed to serve to control the arms embargo on Libyan belligerents.

Orbán and the others are a real danger. But the title of this chronicle is obviously provocative. Collapse is not on the horizon. However, it serves to underline that in these matters of values and external relations, the EU must take unequivocal positions of principle. It is a matter of getting respect. Respect is an essential condition to build a successful future.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

The Libyan future

 The Libyan conflict started nine years ago. It has been violent, and it destroyed most of the economy and livelihoods, as well as the State administration, which was already weak before the crisis. It also had a major impact on the region, as it contributed to increased insecurity in the Sahel. In the circumstances, the announcement this afternoon of a ceasefire, by both key players in the conflict, should be received with some degree of optimism. It came as a surprise, that is a fact. But the positive reactions expressed by Libya’s neighbours and friends, and by the Arab League, are very encouraging. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to comment on the declarations with any type of cynicism. I know it will be difficult to build peace. But the main question this evening is about building peace. How can the partners of Libya help to make sure that the ceasefire holds and that some stability and inclusiveness is created?

Mass immigration as a negotiating tool

Earlier in the day, I was explaining to a local group of futurists that I see Morocco playing little Turkey, on their side of the Mediterranean Sea. They have learned from the Turkish how masses of migrants can be manipulated to put pressure on the European countries. It is happening on the Greek borders, it will be repeated in Libya, now that Erdogan’s troops and armed men are getting stronger in Tripoli and its surroundings. These are the two main migratory routes, and both are now under Turkish control. Is there a better way to be in a robust position when negotiating with the European Union?

The Moroccan are beginning to do the same with Spain and even with Portugal, I guess. In the last couple of months, groups of young men coming from Morocco have arrived by sea at the Southern Portuguese region of Algarve. It is a long sea crossing for their small boats. It is an impossible journey with such fragile vessels. My suspicion is that they get some help from powerful syndicates on the Moroccan shores and that is done under the blind eye of the authorities. Their sponsors might bring them closer to the Portuguese coastline and then let them complete the trip and be perceived as desperate migrants.

This flow has the potential to get bigger. To become route number three for the migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and even from elsewhere.

On the European side, it is about time to start looking at it with greater attention. And, at the same time, to initiate a serious talk with the government in Rabat.

Libya, Turkey and us

After Syria, Libya has become the new confrontation ground between Russia and Turkey. In both cases, confrontation means bullets, military deployments, and death. In Libya, Russia supports the Benghazi-based Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his forces, whilst Turkey has come into the country to fight side by side with the Tripoli-based Unitary provisional government, led by Fayez al-Sarraj. For the time being, the Turkish side of the conflict has gained more ground than the men Moscow has bet on.

 All this has a strategic impact on Europe and should be seen with great concern. Any decision and any critical move by these two countries might become a serious threat to Europe’s stability and security. Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are no friends of Europe. I say so, and at the same time, I do not forget that the latter is the leader of a country that is a member of the NATO Alliance. Erdogan is the peril within.

First, the confrontation between both can bring Europe into a clash with Russia if Turkey invokes its membership of NATO and calls for assistance. However, I am not particularly worried by such possibility as I expect the key leaders of the Alliance to find a way of saying no to a Turkish request for assistance against Russia. Therefore, this prospect is rather remote.

The real problem is that President Erdogan is now in control of the two main migratory routes that bring illegal immigrants into the European Union. The Eastern one runs through his own country and he knows how to make use of it to put pressure on the European politicians. And now, being heavily present in Tripoli and the surrounded areas, his men and their Libyan allies are in command of the Central Mediterranean migratory lane. That gives President Erdogan enormous leverage when dealing with European countries. Mass migration remains a major issue that can seriously undermine the unity and the continuation of the EU. The Turkish President knows it and will keep playing that destabilising card to his own advantage.

Here, like in other areas, the EU foreign policy is being outsmarted by our adversaries.

They can't drink oil

      The collapse of the oil price has several major implications. It is an economic tsunami. For the oil-producing developing countries, in Africa and elsewhere, it means an extraordinary loss of revenue. That’s the case for Nigeria, Angola, Congo, South Sudan, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, and so on. It adds fuel to social instability in those countries. It brings, at least, a new level of poverty and hardship to their populations. For the developed countries, it carries serious capital losses for the pension funds and other sovereign funds that were heavily invested in oil corporations and all the other companies that deal with bits and pieces of the oil industry. For all of us, it discourages new investments in renewable sources of energy. The bottom rock oil price makes any renewable too expensive to contemplate at this stage. 

The oil consumption is at present very low, because of the lockdowns that are implemented all over. But also, because the United States has continued to pump vast amounts of oil. They are now the largest producer, with 12.3 million barrels per day. President Trump could have compelled the industry to reduce daily production. There was a recommendation to cut it by 2 million barrels per day. He decided not to act because he saw this branch of the economy as a key pillar of his political basis. There are 10 million oil and gas sector jobs in the US, plus many billionaires that inject money in the Republican camp.   Now, he is promising them billions of dollars in subsidies. Public money being wasted when the solution was to reduce exploitation. His political choice has a huge impact on the domestic taxpayers’ money and on the world economy. It is inexcusable.

They say that misfortunes never come alone. Indeed.

The Libyan route out of conflict

The German government will host tomorrow in Berlin a conference that aims at bringing a solution to the civil conflict in Libya. The first step would be to reach an agreement on a ceasefire between the two main warring factions, the one based in Tripoli and the one led by General Haftar, a man from Benghazi. This is an important initiative, sponsored by Chancellor Merkel and supported by both President Putin and President Erdogan. Both Presidents have a deep interest in Libya, Russia on the Haftar side and Turkey on the national government based in Tripoli. Merkel’s role is simple: to provide a venue and encourage every party to accept the UN’s mediation. It is modest as an ambition, but in the extremely complex context of Libya, it is a big try.

Both Libyan factions will attend. But all the indications I am getting from inside the country refer that no side is ready for a compromise. Their participation in the Berlin conference is more a play to the gallery, an opportunity to show to their supporters that they have a recognised international status. OK, I accept that, but it is still positive to have them around to be told they must agree on a ceasefire.

Both sides have their international backers. And those backers are telling their Libyan friends that they can win the war. That’s a lie, in a country that is so deeply divided. In the context of Libya, as it is today, the only route towards peace is the one built on national concord and a proper power balance between the different regions of the country. That route cannot be drawn based on foreign influence. It must come the Libyans themselves.

Angela Merkel meets Vladimir Putin: good move

From a European perspective, the resolution of the Libyan civil conflict is a priority. Such crisis has several consequences that are of special importance for the EU Member States. It’s next door, it’s related to a very central migratory flow line, and it has also a serious impact on security in the larger Sahelian region.

But the conflict is far from being resolved. It is getting more complex and deeply dramatic these days. In such context, today’s travel to Moscow to meet President Putin has placed German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the centre of the European efforts. It was the right thing to do. The Europeans must talk to the Russians if they want to see the Libyan drama resolved. The Russians have been very supportive of one of the Libyan sides, the one led by the rebel General Khalifa Haftar. But they have not closed the door on the other side, the one based in Tripoli and recognised by the international community. Moreover, the Russians keep talking to other external actors that are involved in Libya’s domestic situation, to the Turks, the Egyptians and some Arab Gulf States.

Another positive move, out of today’s travel, is the reaffirmation by Angela Merkel that the Libyan peace process must be facilitated by the UN. This is the kind of support that is so much needed.  

   

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

EU and Arab Nations: lots to discuss

The European Union (still 28 States at the time of the meeting..) and the Arab League (22 States) first-ever summit has just taken place in Egypt. The joint statement can be read at:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/25/sharm-el-sheikh-summit-declaration/

The Sahel is important

https://www.securityconference.de/en/media-library/munich-security-conference-2019/video/parallel-panel-discussion-security-in-the-sahel-traffick-jam/

The link will bring us to the panel discussion on the situation in the Sahel that took place today at the Munich Security Conference. 

Progress on Syria and Libya: it should be possible

The efforts being led these days by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov regarding Libya and Syria should be recognised. They are spending a good amount of time in Vienna and around. And they have also been wise in terms of keeping the UN on board and at the centre of the processes. If they keep this kind of engagement we should be able to see some progress. Actually, when it comes to Libya, it is now obvious that things have started to move in the right direction. The EU should come out clearly in support of these efforts. That should be done as a single voice. Through the EU High Representative, if possible.

Libya needs a more coordinated EU assistance

Key countries committed to help Libya to overcome the chaos created in October 2011, when Muammar Kaddafi was overthrown by a Western coalition of countries, met today in Vienna to look for ways of supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) that is now in place in Tripoli. The GNA is led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and has the support of the UN. It´s however facing major difficulties. There are two other rival governments in the Eastern and Central areas of the country as well as dozens of small armed groups all over. The terrorist group Islamic State is also heavily present in a growing number of places.

The EU could play a major role in the stabilisation process. Italy should take the leading coordinating role on the European side. But Italy is very unclear about its own policy approach to Libya. It had suggested it would deploy Italian troops under the UN banner. Now, the government in Rome says it is not prepared to go that way. Fine. But at least they could bring together the EU States and advocate for a common political position. That´s very much needed as France, the UK and others are on their own in the country and working with separate armed groups and factions. Such actions do contribute to add further confusion in Libya. There is therefore room for fighting for a unified EU position. Why is Italy so hesitant? 

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

Supporting the political process in Libya

We shouldn´t lose sight of the appalling crisis that is going on in Libya. There are some good people out there, trying to bring things under control and the European powers – or what remains of such powers… – should get much more engaged and supportive. They should start by giving leverage to the efforts the UN is pursuing in order to bring law, order and basic human rights to Libya.

The alternative is further chaos at our doorsteps, growing menaces, more people smuggling into Europe, and above all leaving the space ready for the violent extremists to win the game. 

Tunisia needs Europe´s attention

The Tunisian youth is again on the streets. Five years after the beginning of the democratic transition many things have been achieved in terms of freedom, human rights and gender. The country remains the only example, in the Arab region, of a peaceful and legitimate change. But the economic opportunities are still missing. It is dreadfully hard to find a job. The terrorist attacks have kept the tourists away. The complex and dangerous situation in the neighbourhood, with Libya on one side and Algeria on the other, is not helping either. Many young Tunisians have actually been radicalised and about five thousand of them have joined the ranks of the barbaric organization that calls itself “Islamic State”.

In addition, there are serious governance issues that have not been addressed. Corruption is widespread. All these problems have created the impression that there is no future for the younger generations. The overall sentiment is one of deep frustration. Therefore, people are back to the streets, and again in very large numbers.

I have called on several occasions for assistance to the Tunisian democracy. The country needs investments, trade agreements, gender-balanced skills development, security assistance and tourists. It also requires a major overhaul of its public administration. EU should focus on Tunisia. France has promised today one billion euros of financial assistance to be disbursed during the next five years. But Paris should also be the Tunisian advocate in the European institutions. Europe cannot let Tunisia down.

Immigration: the pressure is on

The Foreign Ministers and other EU ministers met today to discuss the illegal crossings that constitute a daily human wave of despair coming from the Libyan shores. They called the meeting in the wake of the many deaths that have occurred these past few days.

I think we should recognise the merit of such a meeting. It is true there was no clear-cut decision but at least the matter is now on the agenda and it is recognised as an urgent issue that requires a multidimensional response.

And it also served to push the matter up, to the level of the heads of state and government. They will meet on Thursday on the subject. And let me be clear, in view of the gravity of the situation. Even if the measures that will be adopted at that summit could be seen as insufficient they will represent some progress when compared with the lack of clarity and action that has been the norm during the last year or so. 

Dying in Mediterranean

The question today, after the dramatic news about a major loss of life at sea, in Mediterranean, can only be a simple and direct one: what policy should the EU put in place to address the very complex issue of illegal immigration? I do not know the reply to this question. And I am not sure there is one. But I understand there has been a call for an urgent meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss this major human crisis. I will be paying serious attention to the conclusions of such a meeting. 

Let´s support Tunisia

The Tunisian presidential elections – the first round was held today – are important for the country´s citizens, obviously, but also for the image of Arab revolutions.

Tunisia was the first country to undergo a major political change based on mass demonstrations. It is today the best example of democratization in the Arab world, notwithstanding the many problems the country is still confronted with. And all the friends of Tunisia and democracy in that part of the planet would like it to continue to be a good example. Even if we know that there are many dimensions that are far from being good, including some related to the old oligarchy, its corrupted practices and its attempts to highjack the process, we need to be able to say that there is pluralism, tolerance and rule of law in a country that shares its borders with states that are still in deep crisis.

We should also be able to convince the tourists to go back to Tunisia and all types of investors to look at the country´s potential. 

End of summer vacations

End of August, end of summer holidays. This summer has been however a very busy one. And as we get into full gear in September, we will see an international scene pretty crowded by a number of key issues. The fragility of the politics has an obvious impact on the economy and the international business climate. But I have to say that surprisingly there is some kind of euphoria on the international financial front. A bit as if the politics and the financial matters were happening in two different worlds. And they are, in many ways. Russia and Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and ISIS, Libya and Egypt, the Ebola crisis, all that looks like crisis in distant planets. Big financial funds and the masters of global business transactions have been able somehow to isolate those crises and they believe the risk of contagion is today lower. But we forget that planets can also get into each other´s trajectory and crash. Prudence is then the right approach as we get into the new season.

Little minds

There are so many new headlines from Gaza to Ukraine, from the planes that crash here and there, and then the Summer recess, that we just forget that the Nigerian school girls have not yet been freed, after several months in the hands of Boko Haram, and the Central African Republic is still the murderous chaos it was a few weeks back. And that the elections in Afghanistan are yet to be sorted out, long after the polling day. Not to mention Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, and so on...