Mass immigration as a negotiating tool

Earlier in the day, I was explaining to a local group of futurists that I see Morocco playing little Turkey, on their side of the Mediterranean Sea. They have learned from the Turkish how masses of migrants can be manipulated to put pressure on the European countries. It is happening on the Greek borders, it will be repeated in Libya, now that Erdogan’s troops and armed men are getting stronger in Tripoli and its surroundings. These are the two main migratory routes, and both are now under Turkish control. Is there a better way to be in a robust position when negotiating with the European Union?

The Moroccan are beginning to do the same with Spain and even with Portugal, I guess. In the last couple of months, groups of young men coming from Morocco have arrived by sea at the Southern Portuguese region of Algarve. It is a long sea crossing for their small boats. It is an impossible journey with such fragile vessels. My suspicion is that they get some help from powerful syndicates on the Moroccan shores and that is done under the blind eye of the authorities. Their sponsors might bring them closer to the Portuguese coastline and then let them complete the trip and be perceived as desperate migrants.

This flow has the potential to get bigger. To become route number three for the migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and even from elsewhere.

On the European side, it is about time to start looking at it with greater attention. And, at the same time, to initiate a serious talk with the government in Rabat.

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

Jammeh must go

Following Yahya Jammeh´s tragic volte-face, who has now changed his views on last week´s presidential elections and declared he will not accept the results, the UN Security Council met today to discuss the explosive situation The Gambia is now confronted with. The meeting was called at the request of Senegal, a country that surrounds The Gambia and has a very similar ethnic mix.

The Council has decided that Jammeh has no other option but to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election and move aside, for the winner to be sworn in with no undue delay.

This is not going to be easy to implement. Jammeh does not seem prepared to be reasonable. He is afraid of retribution and legal accusations, if he moves out of the State House.

In the circumstances, he should be offered political asylum elsewhere outside The Gambia. That should be the line of negotiations. It would facilitate the transition to democracy.

Where could he find asylum? That´s for the leaders of the region to decide and negotiate with the receiving state and Jammeh. But there are some countries that could be approached. For instance, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. 

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Rajoy's can of worms

Rajoy’s circus around Gibraltar reminds all of us that Portugal has also a long standing territorial claim over Olivenza, a town in the Estremadura Province of Spain. The town and the surrounding countryside have been under Spanish control since the War of Oranges in 1801, but it is not recognized by Portugal. The area has been Portuguese territory since 1297.

Gibraltar also brings back the dispute between Spain and Morocco regarding two North African cities, Ceuta and Melilla. Both are under Spanish sovereignty notwithstanding the fact that they are located in the part of Africa that defines Morocco.

Rajoy is therefore opening a can of worms. He should instead focus on the Spanish economy and answer to the accusations of bribery and corruption that allegedly are so closely associated to his political career.