Tough times for the Democrats

The Democratic primary in Iowa has not been an auspicious beginning for the party’s presidential campaign. It has given a chance to the opposing camp to say the Democrats are messy and inefficient. President Trump has already started to shoot. He is very good at ridiculing his adversaries. One should not give him any space to do that.

This year’s presidential campaign is going to be particularly tough. All campaigns are very demanding, that’s true. But the current one could be extraordinarily nasty. Donald Trump knows how to fight a street fight. That’s is main strength. The Democratic side must be able to fight him both at that level and at the substantive level. In addition, it will require a constant attention to the mass communication side of things. The Democratic nominee must have an easy and pleasant TV presence. His or her communications team must be first class.

Not easy.

I am afraid we will keep seeing Donald Trump for a good number of years ahead.

Iran, West Africa and the info war game

We are witnessing the emergence of a new campaign against Iran that includes “information” about that country’s growing presence in West Africa, the Sahel and Sudan. It basically says that, following data available to certain security agencies – not named –, Iran is engaged in building a network of terrorist cells in those regions of Africa. Those cells would later be activated against Western interests in the countries concerned.

I have known these corners of Africa for decades. And I have several friends in positions of authority in the area, including in matters of internal security. There is indeed a serious increase of radical activities and armed groups over there. But their link with Iran seems very unlikely. Certainly, very difficult to prove. Those radicals are inspired by Sunni fundamentalism, whilst Iran is a Shiite proponent of Islam.

What I have noticed, and my friends have confirmed, is that the new radicalism in that belt of Africa is mainly supported by groups and mosques based in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, especially in Qatar, as well as in Pakistan. In addition, there is also some influence coming from Egypt.

Juncker's major shortcoming

On this European Day, I wrote in my Portuguese language blog “Vistas Largas” that a lot has been achieved in terms of our common future and joint response to many challenges. But I also added that the European Commission has been mediocre in matters of strategic communications. There is no Commissioner with that kind of portfolio – this should be corrected when the new team takes power in November. And the Commission seems to believe that press conferences, press releases and a crowd of spokespersons are enough to cover the information needs of the European citizens. That’s not a strategic approach. And the experience has shown that it is not enough to keep the citizens aware and get their active involvement in European matters.

If people do not know, they do not support. And they become vulnerable to those who lie and disseminate anti-EU propaganda. That’s where many of us find ourselves today, a few weeks before the next European parliamentary election.

This is a major failure of the outgoing Juncker team. A far-reaching one.

Adversaries and enemies

Always blame your adversary but concentrate your fighting power on your enemy. 

Best wishes for 2019

Time to wish all my readers a very happy 2019.

And to promise I will be around, as much as possible, and try to propose balanced views, innovative analysis, and the appropriate critique, when necessary.

That’s a very demanding agenda, I agree. But that’s what is needed at this time of confusion, superficiality and self-centred communication that is nothing but distortion and egoistic promotion of one’s agenda.

Let’s move on.

Fighting for the public opinion

It is worrying to see the growing number of opportunistic columnists and politicians writing and stating foolish opinions about the EU. They think that´s what will make them popular and look smart. It´s about their personal gain, as they see it in their hearts. But for me, they  are just unwise and self-centred. And also very dangerous, as they are creating the conditions for a serious backlash in Europe.

It´s time to respond to this very serious threat. To engage in the war of narratives, I mean.

Floods, demonstrations and media attention

The floods in and around Paris and other areas have washed away from the news the strikes and other demonstrations that had made the headlines prior to these natural calamities. And mass action without plenty of pictures on TV loses speed and strength. But the issues are still on the table and we can expect the protests to come back once the waters have receded. But the momentum will no longer be the same. Furthermore, with the Euro football matches about to kick off, there will be further competition for media space. In addition, we will hear a number of voices calling for restraint during the championship. The government should take advantage of this quieter period to better communicate its policies and their context. That has to be done with a different kind of skills, in a more conciliatory and patient tone, not with the intransigent way of speaking we have seen the Prime Minister making use of. 

Tell your story

In today´s developed and democratic societies, every political move, every key institution, every public action boils down to perception. More than the facts and the messages the political and social actors put across, what counts in the end is the way they are perceived and understood by the citizen. That´s why today´s wars are not just about fire power. Guns and bullets are still a deterrent, but not good enough. Wars, as well as any political fight, are gained and lost in the narrative that is communicated to people. 

Strategic communications are essential and part of the solution

The EU public opinion matters a lot. People have access to lots of information but the average citizen is still very much influenced by what they watch on TV.

My sense is that the leaders are not communicating well on Greece´s crisis. This is a very sensitive matter that can be easily exploited by any camp that promotes populism, and radicalism, and opposes the EU. It can also weaken further the fragile feeling of common interests.

Every leader has his or her part of responsibility. National leaders should address their national audiences and explain what is at stake and the choices that are being made. Juncker and Tusk, in Brussels, they have likewise to step forward and talk about the issue in a way that goes beyond the sound bites and a patronizing approach. It´s very much their call.