Central African Republic

I have been in touch with Bangui throughout the day. The rebels are again on the move and very close to the capital. There have been some very serious exchanges of fire between them and the South African soldiers, who are in the country to provide assistance to regular army of President Bozizé.

The Central African Republic (CAR) is once more in turmoil. The countries of the region have tried to assist, through the deployment of interposition forces, but with no real success. The South African presence is a bit of an oddity. They have been in and out of CAR in the last few years, to support the regime. As such, they cannot act as bridge between the parties in conflict. The French have troops on the ground. However, their mission is limited to protecting their citizens and the embassy premises.

The UN has also a political office in the country. For the time being, I have decided, as a former senior UN staff, not to comment on UN affairs. Not even today, when the situation in CAR seems to turn again towards a new level of civil war.

What’s next?

Wild Friday nights

Have you driven on Friday evening in some of central districts of Brussels? I rarely do it. I did it tonight. Again, what an experience! A good number of drivers seem to become crazy as we get beyond 08:00 pm.  Maybe it is just that the crazed got their permission to go out and wild. The fact of the matter is that many of those on the city’s avenues on a Friday night drive in a ferocious way. I am told the Police have very little money left for traffic controls – they say they have no real money to pay for the extra hours the officers would be required to perform. Whatever small change is left in the Police budget is used for some infrequent speed checking.  It is the easy way out, as many governments chose to do. 

New leaders are required

The question today is a very painful one: who is in charge of the EU? Indeed, it is sad to note that the European machinery is without a leader, at a time of great confusion and very serious risks for the continuity of the community project. We have not heard a single word from Van Rompuy about the Cypriot debacle. Barroso is travelling in Russia and then goes further east, to Mongolia, but nobody knows what he is recommending. Not even a single word of concern, when many of those who care about the future of Europe feel things are getting tremendously out of hand.

At the national level, Hollande gives the impression he has not been told about Cyprus. Merkel is also silent, which might actually be a better option in her case. And all the others, in the different capitals, are just hiding behind their national borders. Small people are very well known to be fond of the saying “wait and see”…

This crisis calls for a new type of leadership. For people whose voices are clear and able to spell out the direction things should take. For people that are not afraid to say that the way we are now moving brings us to the past. And the past of Europe was pretty ugly. 

The Russians and Merkel

On Cyprus, again... The main concern of all parties – EU and Nicosia – seems to be about face saving. Any solution will now be massaged to look good for both parties. But there is still the Russian unknown. And Berlin gets mad every time the Kremlin is mentioned as a potential partner, as a possible contributor to the solution.

The saga needs to be followed with great attention. It is a turning point in European affairs. 

Time for serious repair work

The Cypriot Parliament has now voted against the foolish financial package that the EU leaders were trying to impose on them. Instead of a sleepless night the bosses of Europe should think about reaching out towards Russia and getting the Kremlin to cost-share the rescue of Cyprus’ banking system. This would be a strategic move. It would build a concrete bridge between the EU and Russia, at a time when many years of empty grand rhetoric have achieved nothing in terms of a real partnership between the two sides. It would also contribute to stabilize the markets which have been seriously affected by Brussels’ decision and will be further destabilized by tonight’s impasse, after the parliamentary vote.

All this requires vision, courage and humility. These are exactly the commodities that have become rare in the EU corridors of power. 

The cluster bomb

The EU decision on Cyprus has had the same effect as a cluster bomb. It has hurt the little credit and confidence that the European citizens still placed on the Union’s leaders. It has hurt Germany’s relations with the South of Europe a lot more. It has hurt further the trust on the banking system. It destroyed value in the all the stock markets. It undermined potential capital investments in Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy. And it has shown, now that there seems to be some backtracking, that the EU takes critical decisions without looking at all the dimensions and implications of the matters under review. And so on.

A very effective cluster idiocy indeed.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s name will remain associated to this inept decision. Besides being the Finance Minister of the Netherlands, he is the President of the Eurogroup, the platform that brings together the EU Finance Ministers. Dijsselbloem took over from Jean-Claude Juncker in January 2013. Juncker, notwithstanding the fact that he comes from a very small country –Luxembourg – managed to demonstrate a strong sense of independence and objectivity. He was his own man and also a firm believer in the common project. The new fellow seems to be biased towards Northern European positions, very close to Angela Merkel’s views and be inspired by a moralistic approach to the issue of public deficits. He believes that the citizens in the crisis countries should be punished for the many years of incautious spending. This is exactly the kind of approach that can make the on-going EU cohesion crisis much worse. 

European idiots

The EU shot itself on the foot once more. The decision it imposed on Cyprus as a condition to approve a package of financial aid is indeed a very serious mistake. It sends a very unequivocal message to everyone: if you put money in a saving account or even invest in a European country that is facing serious economic difficulties you are a fool.

Nobody wants to be taken for an idiot.

Therefore, in the near future we will see a lot of money and potential investments running away from countries such as Portugal, Spain, even Italy, not to mention Cyprus, of course.

The only good thing about being a European idiot is that you might become a government leader in one of the EU countries. You will join the club. 

Hard look and soft minds

I am on the road to discuss the internal security systems and architecture in Portugal and compare the Portuguese response to the French, Spanish, Belgian and Austrian.

Today I listen to the French and could only conclude that their police system is too complex, has too many institutional players and would require a serious performance assessment. But I could also realise that the authorities are not ready to accept a serious review of their security architecture.

Leading by inertia

We are again close another EU summit meeting. They call it a EU Council. But for many observers it looks like one more act in a play called Procrastination...

Snow is not good for national security

In Brussels this afternoon there was a bit of snow again. Just enough powder to make a mess out of the road traffic. People become over cautious and drive at snail pace. That does not prevent many accidents from happening. But it makes moving around a nightmare. My daughter was driving into Brussels from the Mons area, 80 km away, after a long day of work, and it took her close to three hours to reach home.

The impact of all this on me: I spent more time doing baby-sitting-cum-dog-sitting than preparing for my forthcoming seminar on national security in the EU countries. And then I came to the conclusion that a few flakes of snow are a serious threat for the development of national security matters…