Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

Time to keep visiting Ukraine

US Vice-President Biden´s visit sends a very strong message. Now, it is time for the EU leaders to start visiting Ukraine as well. 

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

EU and Russia: every summit meeting counts

The next EU-Russia Summit is taking place on Tuesday, 28 January, in Brussels. It will be a very short meeting. Initially thought to last for two days, it is now planned for three hours. That says a lot about the state of mind of the leaders, on both sides of the table. But it is also related to the fact that the current EU bosses are at the end of their mandates. Later in the year all the key European institutions will be headed by new people.

It would be however a mistake to take this summit as a mere formality. There are important issues on the table, from trade to visa requirements, from Ukraine to the Transnistria break-away region of Moldova. The Europeans should find a balance between pushing forward what is positive and can strengthen the relationship and stating the key principles they believe are important to ensure the full respect for international law and human rights. 

EU and Ukraine: what´s next?

The Ukrainian situation remains at the top of the EU agenda. It is true that the crisis keeps widening. But there is another major reason. Brussels is preparing itself for the next summit meeting with Russia, scheduled for 28 January. And the Europeans are struggling to find a common and effective position on Ukraine to bring to the summit table. The countries to the East of EU are pushing for a very strong statement on Ukraine. They think that will contain Russia´s European ambitions. Other countries, lead by Germany, believe that trade issues are more important than the Ukrainian fate.

In the meantime, Baroness Ashton is getting ready to travel to Kiev. She will bring a message about human rights and democracy. That´s not bad. But it is not enough to unlock the current impasse between Yanukovych and the opposition. 

Ukrainian escalation

We are witnessing a serious escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. There are good reasons to be very worried.

It is now impossible to remain silent and inactive. There is a need to build bridges between the two sides.

It is true that no-one on either side of the divide seems interested in dialogue. But the outside world has to tell them that there is no other way out of the current dangerous situation. 

EU renewal

Greece has just taken the presidency of the EU for the first semester of this year. It is their turn, as the rules go.

And it is a good coincidence that we have Europe´s crisis case in charge.

I hope the Greeks will take advantage of the leadership position and make use of it to bring the South and the North of Europe closer. Greece should promote a new understanding of the relations and partnerships within the EU. Fight the divide and encourage cooperation. 

This would be their unique contribution to the next six months. 

Can they do it? 

Erdogan´s undemocratic path

We should be very worried in view of the recent developments in Turkey. And today we should be even more apprehensive. Erdogan´s comments against the judiciary do not augur well. They show he believes that politics is above the rule of law. A leader cannot claim he has a popular mandate that allows him to go beyond the bounds of the constitution and the laws of the land.

 Erdogan has to respect the democratic rules and Turkey´s legal system. If he doesn’t, where is the country going to?

Europe and the US have not been brave enough to have a proper political dialogue with Erdogan. They remained silent when he did what he did to the military establishment. And they are directionless again, as the democracy is more and more at stake in Turkey. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Relations with China require a EU common approach

Prime Minister Cameron´s visit to Beijing reminds me that there is no EU coherent policy regarding the relations with China.

It is true that there was a recent – about two weeks ago – summit meeting between Van Rompuy and Barroso, on the European side, and the new leadership of China. But it was more of an empty formality than an exercise on strategy. The Chinese play the game and seem to be very interested in a stronger relationship with the EU. But in fact, they are much more interested in their bilateral relations with a small handful of European countries. They know that national sovereignty feelings are coming back within Europe and they understand that better than the concept of a lose community of shared interests.

But the Chinese are difficult and complex parties to any agreement. They have a very strategic and subtle view of international partnerships, particularly with the West. That approach cannot be matched by a piecemeal approach, on our side, by a short-sighted view of each country´s interests. More. The Chinese leaders will take advantage of the competition that is now shaping the relations among the EU member states.

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

EU Commission should be more daring

You ask EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and his team what is the solution for country A or B or C to return to growth and you always get the same prescription. They seem to know only one mantra. It has three lines: augment your exports; lower your labour costs; cut your public debt.

I wonder.

If every EU should boost its exports, where are the import markets?

How far should one lower the labour costs to be competitive with China or Bangladesh?

Why should we cut public debt so dramatically at a time of recession? Why can’t we get the European Central Bank’s statutes changed in order for it to be able to do some quantitative easing? Is Rehn afraid of saying that because he does not wish to offend Berlin?

The point here is very simple. We expect the EU Commission to tell the citizens of Europe what should be done effectively, together and on a country by country basis. They at the Commission are paid to produce an independent advice.

Then, Berlin, The Hague, and other capitals and their national politicians will respond if, yes or no, they want to do it.

A Commission that only recommends what the EU political masters want to hear is useless.  

New leaders are required

The question today is a very painful one: who is in charge of the EU? Indeed, it is sad to note that the European machinery is without a leader, at a time of great confusion and very serious risks for the continuity of the community project. We have not heard a single word from Van Rompuy about the Cypriot debacle. Barroso is travelling in Russia and then goes further east, to Mongolia, but nobody knows what he is recommending. Not even a single word of concern, when many of those who care about the future of Europe feel things are getting tremendously out of hand.

At the national level, Hollande gives the impression he has not been told about Cyprus. Merkel is also silent, which might actually be a better option in her case. And all the others, in the different capitals, are just hiding behind their national borders. Small people are very well known to be fond of the saying “wait and see”…

This crisis calls for a new type of leadership. For people whose voices are clear and able to spell out the direction things should take. For people that are not afraid to say that the way we are now moving brings us to the past. And the past of Europe was pretty ugly. 

Cameron, the European...

Still on yesterday’s meeting of the EU Council, and on the budget for 2014-2020, the big winner is David Cameron. He managed to get Angela Merkel, the Dutch and the Scandinavian leaders on his side. Cameron is the man to watch as far as the future of Europe is concerned.

Another winner, I should emphasise it because people tend to forget his role, is Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council. He led the process with great ability and managed to obtain a consensus without any public recrimination from any of the heads of state or government. Even François Hollande, the most visible face of the losers, kept quiet.