The mainstream media in Russia is a major propaganda tool

The Russian media campaigns in support of President Putin have now reached new peaks of propaganda. A friend was telling me that such campaigns are presently much more intense and loud than the propaganda carried out during the last ten years of the Soviet era.

President Obama´s foreign policy options

President Obama´s speech at West Point on foreign policy must be read with great attention. It shows the direction the US is taking in international affairs. It is clear about the priorities for the next two or three years, but is even clearer about the new doctrinal approaches. Including on the use of force abroad.

I still have to find time to peruse it carefully.  But it´s worth to do it shortly.

In Europe we have to keep in mind that the only option we have at this time of our history is to continue the strong and close defence alliance with the US. We are far away from a EU defence reality. And with the nationalism dragons on the way back to the front of the European political scene it is even more advisable to have the American glue to keep us wisely together in matters of military nature.  

The leader´s image matters a lot

I have seen a few leaders in my life. And I have learned that a true political leader is someone who can combine calmness, with strength of opinion and clarity of speech. They go under terrible stress all the times but do not show it.

Tonight I observed David Cameron as he was about to enter the European Council and found him bitter, nervous and heavy of speech. I thought he looks very stressed. 

Europe needs a new narrative

Today is the day after. After the EU elections of yesterday, which produced results that many have considered “shocking”. But they are not. It is true that in several countries the anti-European parties have done very well and got quite a number of seats. They will make a lot of noise in the European Parliament and will try to take advantage of that platform to gain even more political ground at home. They can however be contained. The vast majority of new Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) is from mainstream political parties and believe in the common project. They just have to better at fighting for it in Brussels and Strasbourg. They have to work harder and be bolder.

The true lesson I take from the election results is about the way the European project is presented. The old way of speaking about a space of peace and stability is no longer attractive for the younger generations. We need to recreate the narrative about the importance of building a united political space of freedom and human rights, as well as a society that promotes economic development, equity and opportunities for all. That´s the kind of story we need to put together. That´s what the young Europeans want to hear. We are not the US, we are not Russia, nor China, we are part of a community of peoples that have decided that united we will be strong. And a bit different. As Europeans, of course. 

Africa Day

Busy with elections all over Europe, we tend to ignore that today is Africa Day.

We are also good at forgetting how important the EU-Africa partnership can become. 

The ways of the Cold War II

This year´s edition of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event that aims at bringing together the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of major world corporations, started last night with a grandiose nine-course banquet. This is an important event that the current state of affairs between Russia and the West has made even more significant. Therefore, the fact that seven of 12 key participants from the US have decided to cancel their participation cannot be ignored. For the US, more in their case than for the Europeans, the severing of as many economic relations with Russia as possible is the key response to President Putin´s policies towards Ukraine. This approach is considered in Washington as the best and most impactful way of undermining Russia. The new face of our modern day “Cold War” is above all about economic muscle and financial measures.  

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.

Let´s be clear about the EU elections

The key call for this weekend´s European election is to vote for pro-EU candidates. At a time of uncertainty and big challenges, including widespread demagoguery, the European project would be under a critical threat if the ultra-nationalists and extremists were to get a sizeable percentage of seats at the new European Parliament.  

Modi as a major partner of Europe

It has been a bit of a mere footnote in the European media, but I think we have to pay greater attention to the political change that is taking place in India. Narendra Modi´s overwhelming electoral victory cannot be ignored. It is, in many ways, an expression of a new India that wants more economic development, concrete results in terms of improved living conditions, and less cronyism and paternalism. Congress Party had become too complacent and too distant from the daily concerns of the people. That´s why they have been voted out. Modi brings a powerful argument with him: the changes he has achieved in his own home State of Punjab. His challenge now is to be able to respond to the aspirations of the ordinary citizen. And also to be able to send a strong signal to the Muslim population. The Indian Muslims need to believe the new Prime Minister is there for all.

EU should engage the new government in Delhi soonest. At the highest level possible, from the European side. Europe has to see Modi and his team as essential partners. 

Ruse at play in Eastern Ukraine

We are again reminded that deception is a critical tool of war and conflict. You have to let your enemy believe he understands your intentions and plans. Then, you do something else.

That´s so much what is happening in Eastern Ukraine these days.