Greece at the margins of Europe

Greece is again in the news. But this time, it´s no longer a headline. It is still front page news, of course. But barely, at the bottom of the front page. However, for some papers, like Le Monde, is not even there, but lost in some less prominent corner of the newspaper.

Also, Greece is no longer very big news for the markets. Besides the Greek stock exchange and the Portuguese one as well, because Portugal´s bourse is very fragile and very sensitive to bad news coming from countries that could be considered comparable, all the other financial indexes have shown indifference to the developments in Athens

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Basically, the signs are very clear: the Greek politics are essentially a domestic matter. The voters will decide and will leave with the consequences of their decision. There is also the conviction that Syriza, the extreme left coalition, will not be able to put together enough votes to form a government. That might lead to a long period of impasse, with the country being administered by a caretaker government. Again, that seems to leave many in Europe indifferent.

Geopolitics and crisis management have placed Greece back at the periphery of Europe. This will bring some changes, for sure. 

Snowing in Brussels

Snow has arrived in Brussels today. White powder in the city is always a mess. But it is nice to see the falling of the snow. It´s winter, we need a taste of winter. My friends from Scandinavia who live in and around Brussels have been very nostalgic about the lack of snow thus far. Today, they certainly feel better and happier. The only concern is that they are all out and back in Scandinavia for the festive break. And there I am sure they have plenty of it. We will keep the little we got today for another few hours, I think. 

UN is lost in Sudan

Sudan, with President Omar al-Bashir as head of State, has been for many years a major challenge to the credibility of the United Nations. There have been a succession of clash matters, from the situation in South Sudan, to Darfur, the arrest warrant against the President by the International Criminal Court, the many obstacles raised by the authorities against the UN activities in the country, including the peacekeeping mission in Darfur, and so on and so on.

The fact of the matter is that the Khartoum government under the leadership of al-Bashir is hostile to the UN presence in the country. And, on the other side of the coin, the UN has not been particularly good at defining a strategic approach to the country´s leaders. This has a major impact on UN´s credibility, particularly in the area of peace operations.

Now, the UN Development Programme top officials in the country – the Resident Coordinator and the Country Director – have just been expelled by the government, under the direct authority of al-Bashir. They will leave the country after the week end. And once again New York has been weak and tentative in its response.

This year´s heroes

In her Christmas address of today, Queen Elizabeth II said some very good words about all those who are engaged in the fight against Ebola in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. They are for sure the heroes of the year. They might not have a well-known name, their pictures might not be printed in every paper, and they might even not be paid on time or not paid at all, in some cases. But their example is very visible. It knocks on our conscience every day to remind us that in the end what matters is to be of service to others, to be committed and also be just one of many nice people. 

Happy Days

Time to wish every one of my readers a very happy Festive Season and a New Year full of great and pleasant surprises. 

Good news from Tunisia

The news from Tunisia is good. The electoral process has been credible. And for us, from our corner of the world, that´s what matters. This is an Arab revolution that has remained democratic and moderate. The rest, the outcome of the elections is a matter that belongs to the Tunisians. They have decided. And I trust the decision is certainly the wiser one, taking into account what was on offer.  

Africa and Europe

I have been asked to think about Africa´s challenges in 2015.

The question is too ambitious. It´s again based on a very common misunderstanding we find in our part of the world: to believe that Africa can be seen as a single entity.

But it is also a good opportunity to keep the African issues on the European agenda. We are in a deeply interlinked world. And Europe´s future is also very much related to developments in Africa. That´s actually the key message I wish to put across. 

Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

War by other means

The traditional approach to war between developed nations has now changed. We still have armies and defence institutions. They will continue to play the key role they are supposed to play: deterrence. They should therefore be fully supported. But besides dissuasion, they are of little practical use. Today, the economic and financial instruments of power play a much more effective role, if they are properly employed and if the political resolve is indeed in place. Financial measures can easily destroy value in the opponent´s camp and generate enough force for a negotiation process to start. That´s a new way of confronting the adversary. And it can be done openly – no need for deception and covert operations. Actually, it should be carried out with sufficient rhetoric. That would make sure the other side understands what´s at play and realises how important it is to yield. 

Leaders and demagogues

Just back from two days in Geneva. I was there to lead a workshop on peace building and crisis response and to deliver a lecture on responding to new types of conflicts. The audience was composed of mid-career professionals, both from the military and the civilian areas. They are in Geneva for an advance masters on peace studies but come from different corners of the world. Some of them will be, later in their professional life, important players in their own countries. They know that. And then, I shouldn't be surprised that several of the questions they raised to my attention were about leadership issues. The role of leaders, how to deal with rogue leaders, how to get leaders to lead.

Leadership in politics is indeed a very current topic. There are many that believe that leaders are not taking up their responsibilities. They are just chambers of resonance for the public opinion. And that´s not leadership. That´s demagogy.